NFL favorites continued their roll in Week 11; 67.7% last 5 weeks

By Dave Tuley  ( senior reporter) 

November 20, 2017 10:59 PM
Ben Roethlisberger and Marcus Mariota huddle after the Steelers dominated the Titans.

LAS VEGAS – Favorites continue their recent dominance of NFL betting as they went 10-3-1 ATS in Week 11 -- capped off by the Falcons beating the Seahawks 34-31 on Monday Night Football after closing a 1-point road favorites -- and are 41-20-7 ATS (67.2%) over the last five weeks.

Underdogs were barking early this season at 53-36-1 ATS (59.6%) through six weeks, but favorites have completely turned the tables and now lead 78-73-8 ATS (51.7%) overall.

Favorites are running so hot that it didn't matter that oddsmakers opened Seattle as a 3-point favorite against Atlanta when sports books posted their openers a week ago last Sunday and Monday. The line started to drop last week and then flipped to the Falcons being favored on gameday. Though a lot of people took the Falcons plus a few points, we grade our betting results here using the consensus closing lines here in Vegas (basically where the market sets the line after input from all oddsmakers, bookmakers, wiseguys and the public). So, it goes down in the record books as yet another favorite covering.

Week 11 started with the Steelers routing the Titans 40-17 as 7-point home faves and the chalk-fest continued Sunday with faves going 5-2-1 ATS in the early window of games (1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT kickoffs). The push was the Lions’ 27-24 win at Chicago after closing as 3-point road faves, though early bettors cashed with Detroit -2.5 (so those bettors would certainly consider faves to be 6-2 ATS in the early games).

The Giants pulled the only outright upset in the early games with their 12-9 win over the Chiefs in overtime as 10-point home underdogs and plus-380 on the money line. The only other underdog to cover in the early window was the Redskins, who blew a 15-point lead in the closing 3 minutes of regulation and lost 34-31 in overtime, but still covered as 9-point road dogs.

Four of the five covering favorites did it relatively easily (Buccaneers over Dolphins, Ravens over Packers, Vikings over Rams, Texans over Cardinals), but the Jaguars needed a strip-sack, fumble-recovery TD with 1:14 to play to cover as 7-point road favorites in their 19-7 win over the Browns.

In the afternoon slate of games, faves went 2-1 ATS with the Chargers blowing out the Bills 54-24 as 7-point home favorites and the Patriots routing the Raiders 33-8 as 7-point faves in Mexico City while the Bengals upset the Broncos 20-17 as 3-point road dogs.

The chalk party continued Sunday night with the Eagles’ 37-9 rout of the Cowboys as 6.5-point road faves (after opening -3 at most books) and then concluded with the aforementioned cover by the Falcons as 1-point road favorites on Monday night.

In totals wagering, over/unders continue to be a 50/50 proposition. They went 7-7 in Week 11 after the Falcons-Seahawks game flew over the total of 48.5 and are now exactly .500 on the season at 79-79-2.

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