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NFL Divisional Round Teaser Opportunities

January 15, 2021 12:39 AM

Happy Friday! We have a loaded betting menu today with 40-plus college basketball games, 8 NBA games and 5 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be joining the Lombardi Line with Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher at 12:25 p.m. ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, we are just 24 hours from NFL Divisional Round Weekend. While much of the betting attention is paid to conventional spread and total plays, many bettors will look for profitable teaser opportunities on Saturday and Sunday.

What Are Teasers?

Teasers are incredibly popular with recreational bettors. They are similar to a parlay in that they combine multiple bets into the same bet—but they are also quite different. In a teaser, bettors can adjust the spread or total in their favor to get more desirable numbers, typically by six points. This is known as teasing "up" or "down." All of the legs in the teaser must win in order for you to win your teaser.

Sharp NFL bettors target teasers also, but they are much more disciplined and selective. Pros target the two-team six-point teaser, which can be bet at roughly -120 odds (shop for the best line as some books have more expensive prices). For example, say you like two favorites this weekend and both are -6.5 on the spread. You could tease both down to -0.5, which means they just have to win the game in order for your teaser to hit.

Tease Through Key Numbers

While public bettors look for the biggest spreads of the weekend and blindly tease down favorites, pros focus on teasing through key numbers. When teasing, the goal is to pass through multiple key numbers (3, 7, 10). Key numbers are based on the most common methods of scoring, which include the field goal and touchdown. As a result, the most common margins of victory in a football game are 3 and 7. With this knowledge in mind, you always want to be on or off a key number depending on which side of the bet you prefer. The most profitable teasers are the ones that go through 3 and 7.

Teaser Opportunities This Weekend

Ravens + 2.5 to + 8.5: This is arguably the top teaser of the weekend because it allows you to pass through the two biggest key numbers (3 and 7). We've also seen some respected money hit Baltimore, dropping the line from + 3 to + 2.5. This means you are on the side of sharp action.

Ravens-Bills Under 55.5 (up from 49.5): Key numbers for totals aren't nearly as important as key number for spreads. But we've seen some sharp money hit this under, dropping the total from 50.5 to 49.5. Weather could play a factor here. The current forefact calls for low 30s, 15-20 MPH winds and possibly some snow.

Rams + 6.5 to + 12.5: We've seen some sharp reverse line movement hit Los Angeles, dropping the Rams from + 7 to + 6.5. By teasing the Rams up to + 12.5, you are passing through the key numbrs of 7 and 10. The public will surely tease down the Packers from -6.5 to -0.5. The books will be rooting for a Rams win to kill those public Green Bay teasers.

Rams-Packers Under 51.5 (up from 45.5): Respected money has hit this under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 45.5. The forecast calls for low 30s at Lambeau with 10 MPH winds. The Rams are 12-5 to the under this season.

Browns + 10 to + 16: This spread has remained frozen at Chiefs -10 all week. But we are starting to see the wiseguys lean toward Cleveland, with the + 10 being juiced up to -115. This signals a possible fall to 9.5. By teasing the Browns to + 16 you can go through the key number of 14.

Browns-Chiefs Over 51 (down from 57): We've sean overload of both Pro and Joe money hammer this over, driving it up from 54.5 to 57. The weather shouldn't be an issue at Arrowhead: overcast and high 30s. The Browns are 10-7 to the over this season.

Bucs + 3 to + 9: Sharp money has gotten down hard on Tampa, moving the Bucs from + 4 to + 3. By taking the Bucs to + 9 you can pass through the key number of 7. Right now the Saints -3 is being juiced up to -120, signaling a possible rise back to -3.5. If you wait, you could take the + 3.5 to + 9.5.

Bucs-Saints Over 46 (down from 52): Pros and Joes have taken a liking to this over, driving it up from 50 to 52. This game will also be played in a dome. Over the past decade, dome playoffs overs are roughly 65%.

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