NFL Data-Driven Futures Bets for the 2022-2023 Season

July 10, 2023 06:13 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves each day. For a full breakdown of Monday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, with MLB on the All Star break and not much to get down on today, let's take a look at some NFL data-driven futures bets to consider for the upcoming season.

Odds and percentages via BetMGM


Kansas City Chiefs to win AFC West (-165)

It might seem obvious, but the defending champion Chiefs are taking smart money to win their division at a relatively cheap chalk price. Kansas City opened at -160 to win the AFC West and has moved to -165, signaling respected money in their favor. The Chiefs also enjoy a sharp bet split, receiving 40% of bets but 73% of money to win their division. This represents a +33% smart money discrepancy. The Chargers (+300) have the second best odds to win the division, followed by the Broncos (+500) and the the Raiders (+1400). The Chiefs also have the highest win total in their division (11.5), followed by the Chargers (9.5), Broncos (8.5) and Raiders (7.5). No other team is receiving more than 11.7% of the handle (Chargers). The Chiefs have won seven straight division titles and won at least 12 games in six of the last seven seasons. Kansas City has the advantage of a stable roster and the top coach/quarterback duo in the NFL with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, plus one of the best home field advantages in Arrowhead Field. The Chargers are expected to be their closest competition in the division. Meanwhile, the Broncos have a new coach (Sean Payton) and the Raiders have a new quarterback who is also returning from injury (Jimmy Garoppolo). 


Jacksonville Jaguars to win AFC South (-165)

The Jaguars are on an upward trajectory. Jacksonville went a putrid 3-14 in Trevor Lawrence's rookie season under Urban Meyer. Then the Jags bounced back to go 9-8 last season under Doug Pederson, winning the AFC South as well as a playoff game. The Jags opened at -150 to win their division and have quickly moved to -165. indicating offseason steam in their favor. Jacksonville is receiving 29% of bets but 52% of money, a 23% smart money is discrepancy. The next best odds to win the division are the Titans (+375), followed by the Colts (+550) and Texans (+800). The Jags also have the highest win total of any team in the AFC South (10.5), followed by the Titans (7.5), Colts (6.5) and Texans (5.5). Both the Colts and Texans are breaking in rookie coaches and rookie quarterbacks, which is typically a fade spot for futures bettors. Meanwhile, Jacksonville enjoys the stability of Pederson and Lawrence entering their second full season together. The Titans are likely to be the Jags' closest competitor inside the division, but Tennessee has seen their division odds get worse over the summer (+275 to +375), signaling a lack of respect in the market. The Jags also have the 23rd easiest schedule based on their opponents combined won-loss record from last season (135-148-4, .477). 


Atlanta Falcons Over 8.5 Wins

Wiseguys have been quietly pounding the Falcons' over win total all offseason. After opening at 7.5, we've seen Atlanta's win total jump up to 8.5. No only has it risen a full game, but the over 8.5 is also getting juiced up to -120, with the expensive juice signaling further liability on the over. The over is receiving 64% of bets but 93% of money, signaling modest public support but also heavy smart money (+29% discrepancy). The Falcons went 7-10 last season. Expecting a two-win jump seems realistic when figuring in several key variables. First, Atlanta is likely to enjoy an upgrade at quarterback with second year player Desmond Ridder taking over for Marcus Mariota. Next, head coach Arthur Smith is entering his third season, with more experience wearing the headset a likely benefit. Atlanta enjoys one of the most prolific young offenses, headlined by 22-year-old tight end Kyle Pitts, 21-year-old wide receiver Drake London and 21-year-old first round pick and rookie running back Bijan Robinson. Lastly, the division looks to be wide open following the retirement of Tom Brady. The Saints (+125) are the favorite to win the AFC South but the Falcons are a close second (+220), followed by the Panthers (+350) and Bucs (+750). Atlanta has the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL based on their opponent's won-loss record from last season (119-167-3, .417). 

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