(313) TENNESSEE at (314) KANSAS CITY
The Titans have quickly become the top storyline of the playoffs. Tennessee snuck in as the No. 6 seed, then upset the Patriots 20-13 as a 4.5-point road dog on wild-card weekend before taking down the top-seeded Ravens 28-12 as a 10-point road dog in the divisional round. Tennessee cashed %plussign0 on the moneyline in Round 1 and %plussign@0 in Round 2. The Titans have gone 11-7 ATS this season, including 7-3 ATS on the road. Derrick Henry has been unstoppable this postseason, rushing 64 times for 377 yards and a touchdown. Kansas City enters as the No. 2 seed. The Chiefs fell behind the Texans 24-0 early in the divisional round, only to storm back and win 51-31 as 10-point favorites. Kansas City has gone 12-5 ATS this season, including 6-3 ATS at home. At Circa Sports, the Chiefs are the favorites to win the Super Bowl at %plussign5, while the Titans have the longest odds of the four remaining teams at %plussignr5.
The AFC championship game opened with Kansas City listed as a 7.5-point favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Chiefs at Arrowhead. However, despite two-thirds of bets backing Kansas City, the line has remained frozen at 7.5, and the juice is trending toward Tennessee (+7.5 at -115), signaling liability on the road dog and a possible move down to 7. Playoff dogs +7 or more are 37-26 ATS (59%) since 2003, including 6-2 ATS (75%) in conference title games. When the line stays the same or moves toward dogs, they’ve gone 59-42 ATS (58%), including 3-1 ATS this postseason. Home favorites like the Chiefs are 14-12 ATS (53.8%) in conference title games.
The total opened at 51.5 and rose to 52 behind two-thirds of bets taking the Over. Conference championship Overs are 18-11 (62%) since 2003. The forecast calls for temperatures of 20 degrees but no precipitation and only 3-4-mph winds. When the temperature is less than 30 degrees, the Over is 116-81 (58.9%), including 24-14 (63.2%) in the postseason. Outdoor playoff Unders are 4-2 this postseason and 77-58 (57%) since 2003. Tony Corrente, the lead referee, has historically favored Unders (56.7%). Both teams have been profitable to the Over this season, with the Titans 10-8 and the Chiefs 9-8. The Titans beat the Chiefs 35-32 in Week 10, winning straight up as 5-point home dogs.
(311) GREEN BAY at (312) SAN FRANCISCO
This true heavyweight battle features the top two seeds in the NFC. They are a combined 28-6, and both are coming off first-round byes followed by home wins and covers in the divisional round. Green Bay raced to a 21-3 lead against the Seahawks and held on to win 28-23, covering as a 4.5-point favorite. The Packers are riding a six-game winning streak and have gone 11-6 ATS this season, including 5-3 ATS on the road. The 49ers took care of business in their playoff opener, beating the Vikings 27-10 as 7-point home favorites for their third straight win. San Francisco has gone 10-6-1 ATS on the season but just 4-4-1 ATS at home. At Circa Sports, the 49ers have the second-best Super Bowl odds (%plussign5), while the Packers have the third best (%plussignW5).
The NFC championship game opened with the 49ers listed as 7-point favorites. Two-thirds of bets, including some early sharps, are backing San Francisco, which has pushed the line to -7.5. Similar to the AFC championship game, the juice is leaning on the road dogs (Packers +7.5 at -115), signaling a possible drop back down to 7. Green Bay has value as a playoff dog +7 or more (37-26 ATS, 59% since 2003, including 6-2 ATS, 75% in conference title games). Home favorites like the 49ers are 14-12 ATS (53.8%) in conference title games. When the line moves toward a team in a conference title game, those teams have gone 16-9 ATS (64%) since 2003, including 10-5 ATS (66.7%) for favorites.
The total opened at 45. Two-thirds of bets are taking the Over, yet the total hasn't budged. Conference championship Overs are 18-11 (62%) since 2003. But outdoor playoff Unders are 77-58 (57%), including 4-2 this postseason. John Hussey, the lead referee, has historically favored home teams (54.7% ATS) and Unders (56.6%). The forecast looks clear in Santa Clara, Calif., with temperatures in the high 50s with little to no wind. The Under is 10-7 in Packers games and 8-8-1 in 49ers games. San Francisco beat Green Bay 37-8 as a 3-point home favorite in Week 12.