We have two games left in the NFL playoffs on Sunday to decide the representatives for Super Bowl LVI in Los Angeles.
What are the best bets for the AFC Championship Game and NFC Championship Game?
Our experts Adam Burke, Dave Tuley and Ben Brown of Pro Football Focus give their favorite plays for Sunday.
Lines from our VSiN NFL Odds page as of Thursday afternoon. Betting splits available here.
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 54.5)
DraftKings betting splits: 60% of bets on Chiefs, 75% of money on Chiefs
Burke: When the Chiefs and Bengals played in Week 17, one team adjusted at halftime and the other didn’t. Kansas City led 28-17 at half, but managed just three points in the second half as Cincinnati roared back for a 34-31 win and an AFC North Division title for the first time since 2015.
That first meeting featured 889 yards of offense, including 446 passing yards from Joe Burrow. The Chiefs had 7.1 yards per play and the Bengals had 7.5. It was an offensive showcase and bettors clearly have the same expectation for this game based on where the total has ended up.
Keep in mind, however, that last week’s Bills/Chiefs thriller was a 26-21 with under two minutes to play. Everything just went bonkers after that, as there were 25 points scored in the last 1:54 of regulation. If that doesn’t happen, this total is probably closer to the 51 or 51.5 that it opened to start the betting process.
The Bengals defense is undoubtedly stepping up in class after holding the Raiders and Titans to 35 combined points. However, Lou Anarumo has done a really good job with this unit and I’d expect the same here, especially after the second-half adjustments that were made in Week 17. Kansas City is hard to pin down, but teams have done it and the Bengals did it by holding the Chiefs to just three possessions in the second half.