NFL Awards Sharp Report

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Merry Christmas Eve! 

The Titans upset the 49ers 20-17 on Thursday Night Football, winning outright as 3.5-point home dogs. With Tennessee covering, primetime dogs improve to 27-19 ATS (59%) on the season. Mike Vrabel improves to 6-2 ATS as a dog this season and 18-11 ATS (62%) as a dog in his career. Kyle Shanahan falls to 13-24 ATS (35%) as a favorite.

Last night's under (45) also cashed. Non-conference unders improve to 43-28 (61%). Primetime unders are now 27-21 (56%), including 25-13 (66%) since November 1. 

For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll be co-hosting The Lombardi Line with Patrick Meagher from 12 p.m. ET to 2 p.m. ET and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

Today is a light day of betting with a limited slate, so let's take this free time to check out some NFL futures bets, with stats courtesy of BetMGM...

 

MVP

Tom Brady  150

Aaron Rodgers  150

Jonathan Taylor  900

Patrick Mahomes  1200

Matthew Stafford  1600

Analysis: This award is a tossup between quarterback legends Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Both are co-favorites to win MVP at  150. Brady was as high as -150 last week but has fallen after being shut out by the Saints 9-0. Brady also lost star wide receiver Chris Godwin to a season-ending injury. As Brady has slipped, Rodgers has risen. Rodgers was as high as  500 entering Week 15 but has catapulted up to the co-favorite. Brady is receiving 10.1% of tickets but 25.8% of the handle. Rodgers is receiving 7% of the tickets but 16% of the handle. Rodgers has a higher quarterback rating than Brady (110.4 vs 100.4). Rodgers might still have value at  150. If he continues his stellar play, he could cross over to a minus favorite soon. 

 

Offensive ROY

Mac Jones -800

Ja'Marr Chase  500

Jaylen Waddle  6600

Najee Harris  10000

Javonte Williams  10000

Devonta Smith  10000

 

Analysis: Jones is a heavy favorite at -800, which translates to an 89% implied probability. Jones is taking in 18.2% of bets but 38% of the handle, a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" bet discrepancy. However, the price is so high that the value is all but gone on Jones. You have to risk so much that the juice isn't really worth the squeeze. 

 

Defensive ROY

Micah Parsons -10000

Odafe Jayson Oweh  800

Patrick Surtain II  900

Analysis: Parsons has this award all but locked up. His odds translate to a 99% implied probability. Parsons is receiving 41.7% of tickets but a whopping 78.7% of dollars. Parsons opened the season as the favorite to win the award 400. 

 

Offensive POY

Jonathan Taylor -105

Cooper Kupp -105

Tom Brady  5000

Aaron Rodgers  50000

Analysis: This is a two-man race between co-favorite Taylor and Kupp, which provides value for bettors at a pick'em price. Taylor is receiving 14.1% of tickets but 13.7% of money. Meanwhile, Kupp is receiving 6.1% of bets but 19.1% of money. Based on the betting splits, Kupp is receiving a larger share of respected money, both proportionally and in terms of the raw ticket count. Taylor leads the NFL with 1,518 rushing yards (5.6 AVG) and 17 touchdowns. Kupp leads the NFL with 122 catches for 1,625 yards and 14-touchdowns. 

 

Comeback POY

Dak Prescott -650

Joe Burrow  650

Nick Bosa  900

Carson Wentz  5000

Analysis: Prescott is a big favorite to win this award, with an implied probability of 87%. Prescott is receiving 26.5% of bets but a whopping 51.5% of dollars, by far the biggest share of any player. This signals heavy wiseguy money on Prescott. Burrow is receiving 11.6% of bets but only 8% of money, indicating mostly public support. 

 

Coach of the Year

Bill Belichick  105

Matt LaFleur  250

Kliff Kingsbury  1100

Sean McVay  1600

Frank Reich  2000

Mike Vrabel  2000

Mike McCarthy  2000

Zac Taylor  2000

 

Analysis: Kingsbury was the favorite for much of the season but now the Cardinals have lost two straight and he's taken a hit. Belichick has been the beneficiary. Belichick is receiving 17.4% of tickets but 23% of money, the highest share of any coach. LaFleur has the second best odds but he's only receiving 2.7% of tickets and 3.3% of money, which signals he isn't a respected candidate. Vrabel is worth a look. He is receiving 15% of bets but 19.4% of dollars, guiding Tennessee to a successful season despite their myriad of injuries. 

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