NFL 2019 Season Early Projections

By Steve Makinen  () 

With the NFL Draft behind us and Westgate SuperBook having released its NFL season win total props for the season, this is the perfect time to run the teams’ power ratings through their 2019 schedules to see what the computer spits out for projected records. I have made my offseason adjustments based upon roster moves and the recent draft and have set up my baseline NFL power ratings for the season. The chart below will show the projected records for each team, along with their schedule strength ratings. The latter is an extremely important factor to consider if you’re wagering any season win props. Here are some of the highlights of the chart

• According to my figures, Jacksonville plays the league’s toughest schedule, at least as it stands now, based upon opponent/home/road breakdown. The Jaguars are ranked just ahead of Denver and Oakland in that regard. Not only will they have to face the tough AFC West and NFC South Divisions, but they will once again cede one of their home games by playing in London. QB Nick Foles takes over the team’s most key position for Blake Bortles in 2019.

• The league’s easiest schedules belong to none other than defending Super Bowl Champion New England, which has the good fortune of squaring off with fellow AFC East rivals six times. No other team in that division is expected to reach the .500 won-lost mark in 2019. It’s not all cupcakes though for HC Bill Belichick’s team however, as they do face the likes of Philadelphia, Houston, Pittsburgh and Kansas City this season.

• New England (11.1) is projected to win the most games of any team in the NFL, followed by New Orleans (10.8), LA Rams (10.4), Philadelphia (10.3) and the LA Chargers (10.1) among the double-digit win projections.

• There are only two teams projected to win less than six (6.0) games in 2019, and they are Miami (4.8) and Arizona (5.9). The Cardinals, of course, just selected former Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray with the first pick in last weekend’s draft. He will be replacing Josh Rosen, who ironically was traded to Miami. Those quarterback situations will be among the more interesting storylines to follow this season for NFL bettors.

• Assuming the projections play out accurately, the AFC’s top two seeded teams for the playoffs would be New England and the LA Chargers. In the wildcard playoff round, the Browns would host Kansas City and Indianapolis would welcome Pittsburgh in the #3-#6 matchup. For the NFC, the top two seeds would be New Orleans and the Rams, the two combatants in the most recent conference title games. The wildcard matchups would be Chicago-Green Bay and Philadelphia-Dallas.

Below, I’ve put together the list of teams comparing their season win total projection on the chart to the recently released prop wager shown at Westgate SuperBook. Using my projections draw your own conclusions to find the best value in these options. As usual, I will give my Power Ratings a full review once the season draws nearer, to reflect any key injuries, additions/subtractions, or positional battles, sometime near the end of the preseason.

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