New Year's Day CFB Sharp Report

kentucky

Happy New Year's Day!

On New Year's Eve we saw CFP semifinal favorites go 2-0 straight up and 2-0 ATS. In the early game, Alabama (-13) handled Cincinnati 27-6. In the late game, Georgia (-7.5) dominated Michigan 34-11. Unders also went a perfect 2-0.

Georgia has opened as a 2.5-point favorite against Alabama for the National Championship game, which will be played on Monday, January 10th. The total is 52.5. 

Now let's discuss where the respected money is leaning for today's College Football Bowl Games...

 

12 p.m. ET: Arkansas vs Penn State

This is the Outback Bowl and it will be played at Raymond James Stadium, home of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Arkansas (8-4 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) is ranked 21st and went 4-1 down the stretch, most recently beating Missouri 34-17 and covering as 14.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Penn State (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS) is unranked and went just 2-5 over their past seven games, most recently falling to Michigan State 30-27 but covering as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Penn State listed as a short 3-point favorite. Respected money has pounced on Arkansas, flipping the Razorbacks to a 3-point favorite. This line move was due in large part to significant opt-outs on the Penn State side, including their leading receiver and several defensive starters. Those looking to bet against the opt-outs but wary of laying the points could target Arkansas on the moneyline (-145). 

 

1 p.m. ET: Kentucky vs Iowa

This is the Citrus Bowl and it will be played in Orlando, Florida. Kentucky (10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS) is ranked 22nd and is riding a three-game winning streak, most recently crushing Louisville 52-21 as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Iowa (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) is ranked 15th but just got waxed by Michigan 42-3 in the Big Ten Championship game, failing to cover as 12-point dogs. This line opened with Iowa listed as a short 1.5-point favorite. Wiseguys have steamed Kentucky, moving the Wildcats to a 3-point favorite. Iowa will be missing star RB Tyler Goodson, who opted out, along with several other defensive players due to injury. Both teams are giving up roughly 20 PPG on defense. The difference comes on offense, where Kentucky is avering 33 PPG compared to Iowa averaging 24 PPG. 

 

5 p.m ET: Utah vs Ohio State

This is the Rose Bowl and it will be played in Pasadena, California. Utah (10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS) is ranked 11th and has won six straight games, most recently crushing Oregon 38-10 to win the Pac 12 Championship, easily covering as 3-point favorites. Conversely, Ohio State (10-2 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) is ranked 6th overall but just fell to Michigan 42-27, losing outright as 6.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Ohio State listed as a 7-point favorite. The public is hammering the Buckeyes, yet we've seen this line fall from 7 to 4, signaling some sharp money grabbing Utah plus the points. Ohio State will miss several starters due to opt outs, including both their star WRs Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. 

 

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