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Nevada welcomes prop betting on NBA Draft and Finals MVP

Jeff Fogle
VSiN.com

May 25, 2017 12:23 AM
lottery
The Celtics and Lakers will go 1-2 in the NBA Draft, which can be bet in Nevada for the first time.
© USA Today Sports Images

The cold stay cold (New Jersey in its efforts to legalize sports betting) the hot stay hot (Colorado, National League Overs) and now you can bet on the NBA Draft.

Sports Betting Industry: Nevada Gaming approves betting on NBA Draft and Finals MVP
In a story that broke late Wednesday evening, Nevada Gaming approved prop betting for the 2017 NBA Draft as well as betting on the MVP in the NBA Championship series. 

Todd Dewey of the Las Vegas Review-Journal posted details just before midnight Eastern time. You can read his article here, and take an early look at MVP prices that went up immediately at William Hill sports books. 

VSiN programming had been alerting you to this possibility the past several days. You can be sure that today’s shows will add context and betting analysis to this developing story. That will start with “Follow the Money” at 2 p.m. ET, 11 a.m. here in Las Vegas with Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard. 

Matt Youmans discussed potential draft props in an article back on May 17. We’ll make that easy for you to find…just click here

Sports Betting Industry: New Jersey’s hopes run into a Wall, Solicitor General Jeffrey Wall
It’s starting to feel like a multi-year Martingale with the losses piling up as a multi-million-dollar industry awaits a winner. Wednesday, acting Solicitor General of the United States Jeffrey B. Wall recommended to the Supreme Court that it not take the case involving New Jersey’s attempts to get the 1992 PASPA act declared unconstitutional. 

The state has yet to break through in its case, known legally as “Christie vs. NCAA,” and has been trying the “we’ll appeal this all the way to the Supreme Court” approach in hopes of getting sports betting legalized in New Jersey. 

Wall’s formal recommendation is not the end of the line. The Supreme Court could still choose to hear it anyway. But, a study has shown that SCOTUS only supersedes the Solicitor’s recommendation 20% of the time. 

Ron Flatter talked with legal expert Amy Goldman on “My Guys in the Desert” Wednesday afternoon regarding this major story. That informative interview will get you up to speed

Additional details are available by way of these article links to:
The Washington Post
NorthJersey.com
VSiN
ESPN Chalk
Casino.org

Of course, sports betting has been going strong for decades here in Las Vegas. We hope you got a chance Wednesday to watch VSiN’s debut edition of “Inside Looking Outside,” a roundtable show hosted by Jimmy Vaccaro.

Oddsmakers Roundtable: Colorful past, bright future!
The hour flew by…and let’s call that the “first” hour because viewer response was so strong that VSiN will definitely have additional oddsmaker roundtables in the very near future. 

Thanks to Nick Bogdanovich and Chuck Esposito for joining our trio of titans Jimmy Vaccaro, Vinny Magliulo, and Chris Andrews. If you missed the live broadcast, please click here to enjoy the replay in its entirety. These industry stalwarts talked about past exploits (highlights and worst beats), and looked ahead to the tremendous growth that’s expected in an era of electronic and in-game wagering. 

Your chance to be on the outside looking in when oddsmaking legends are “Inside Looking Outside!” It’s all upside for sports bettors!

(Unfortunately, Jay Kornegay of the Westgate wasn’t able to attend our debut. But Jay made a special appearance earlier Wednesday on “Follow the Money” with Mitch and Pauly. Click here to listen on audioboom.)

College Football: Chris Andrews says odds are going up soon at South Point
Before Chris was on Jimmy’s roundtable, he told Gill Alexander on “A Numbers Game” that various popular college football betting options will be available imminently. 

The current projections:

Today or Friday: Week 1 Regular Season lines will go LIVE for betting
Monday: A total of 67 marquee “Games of the Year” will also become available
Friday/Saturday June 2-3: Regular Season Win Totals hit the board

You’ve been able to bet the NFL for a few weeks. College Football is about to join the party. Do your handicapping NOW so you’ll be ready when the games go up!

MLB: Futures prices tightening around a handful of contenders
We haven’t had a chance in awhile to talk about futures prices in Major League Baseball. We begin today's coverage from the diamond with this refresher. 

South Point Odds to win NL Pennant
Chicago Cubs 2/1
LA Dodgers 2/1
Washington 5/2
Colorado 4/1
St. Louis 6/1
Arizona 12/1
NY Mets 15/1
San Francisco 35/1
Milwaukee 40/1
Cincinnati 50/1
Pittsburgh 50/1
Atlanta 100/1
Miami 100/1
San Diego 100/1
Philadelphia 125/1

Sports books have to defend against the public’s appetite to bet the most obvious teams. That’s why projected divisional winners Washington, Chicago, and the LA Dodgers are all less than 3 to 1 to win the NL Pennant. Remember that the market is factoring in expectations for the FULL season rather than just responding to current standings. Your newspaper may show the Dodgers in third place in the NL West. Informed bettors still see them as co-favorites with the Cubs in the senior circuit. 

It would be tough to imagine worse odds for those teams come playoff time in terms of value betting. Are there any longer shots worth considering? Arizona at 12 to 1 and Milwaukee at 40 to 1 would have to continue their surprisingly strong early season form. 

South Point Odds to win AL Pennant
Cleveland 2/1
Houston 14/5
NY Yankees 4/1
Baltimore 5/1
Texas 6/1
Boston 7/1
Detroit 15/1
LA Angels 15/1
Tampa Bay 20/1
Seattle 25/1
Chicago White Sox 25/1
Minnesota 30/1
Toronto 40/1
Kansas City 100/1
Oakland 150/1

Cleveland is still even money, after luring in a lot of preseason investors off last year’s great showing. A slow start hasn’t inspired South Point to make the Indians any more affordable yet. But there are some talented teams that might appeal to you just below them. 

MLB: Colorado Rockies continue to crush opponents
We’re long past the time that this Cinderella should have turned into a pumpkin…at least in terms of a pretender getting exposed. The Colorado Rockies just won their third straight game in Philadelphia (by a combined 23-5 margin), and have the best record in the National League.

Gill Alexander alerted you to this team’s potential before the season began. The best evidence that the Rockies are at least capable of contending over the long season is showcased by an astounding 18-7 road record. Yes, they’ve avoided road games vs. the Cubs and the Nationals so far. But, check out these performances against other surprise starters. 

Colorado took 3 out of 4 at Milwaukee, who leads the NL Central
Colorado took 2 out of 3 at Arizona, currently with the third best record in NL
Colorado took 2 out of 3 at Minnesota, who leads the AL Central

They’re at least playing better than other Cinderella’s who have been winning. Their toughest test in terms of market expectations was the 2-game set in Los Angeles. The Rockies split those (losing to Clayton Kershaw), which is still consistent with being legit.
 
Yes, they also went 8-2 against Philadelphia, San Diego, and San Francisco, teams clearly struggling in 2017. But, legitimately good teams usually bully the dregs. A 2-1 series win at Cincinnati brings us to 18-7. 

Check out these stats:

  • Colorado is averaging a whopping 4.92 runs per game on the road
  • Colorado’s staff ERA is just 3.33 on the road

That’s elite hitting and pitching without any polluting effects of playing home games at altitude getting in the way. Colorado leads the league in road ERA. And, they’re third in runs scored per game on the road behind Washington and the NY Mets. 

After finishing up in Philly early Thursday, Colorado comes home for a big series against the St. Louis Cardinals. A good indicator series against a quality opponent. Keep an eye on the Rockies until they show signs of cooling off.

MLB: Games still flying Over in the National League
That 7-2 victory for Colorado we just mentioned was notable for another reason, it was the only early National League finisher that didn’t go Over its total! That was a push against a market price of nine runs. San Diego/NY Mets, Pittsburgh/Atlanta, and San Francisco/Chicago would land on 11, 17, and 9 respectively to top the market.

Another Over night in the NL continues a trend we’ve been seeing all season, and reporting on for you recently here in VSiN City. The updated numbers…

Thru Wednesday’s games

  • National League only: 154-113-12 to the Over
  • American League only: 129-136-15 to the Under
  • Interleague only: 44-40-1 to the Over

Let’s look at some of the individual team marks from the standings page at covers.com.

NY Mets: 29-9-6 to the Over
Milwaukee: 29-16-1 to the Over
Chicago Cubs: 27-15-2 to the Over
Cincinnati: 27-16-2 to the Over
Washington: 25-18-2 to the Over
St. Louis: 25-16-2 to the Over
Atlanta: 26-17 to the Over
Philadelphia 26-16-2 to the Over
Miami 26-16-3 to the Over

Vinny Magliulo has been telling you about the Mets' Over tendencies for a while. We hope you took notice…because the Mets have only played three Unders over the last calendar month!

Note that a lot of the games reflected in that team rundown are “double-counted.” If the Cubs and Reds play an Over against each other, it shows up for each of them in the breakdown. Our daily recaps avoid that by focusing on the individual games. National League games individually have more than 40 additional Overs than Unders. Astounding. 

What’s driving all the Overs in the NL? It can be tough separating the impact of pitching and hitting in this kind of discussion. Is it great hitting or lousy pitching? We’ll tell you this, it’s all adding up to a lot of slugging.

Slugging Percentages

  • National League .420
  • American League .411

That’s right…the league that forces pitchers to bat has a higher slugging percentage thus far in 2017 than the league that uses a Designated Hitter.

Team slugging rankings in the Majors

  1. Washington .479
  2. Milwaukee .456
  3. Arizona .456
  4. NY Yankees .454
  5. Cincinnati .452
  6. Colorado .444
  7. Houston .440
  8. LA Dodgers .428

That’s the top three spots in the Majors belonging to the NL, and six of the first eight spots. The market has yet to find an equilibrium for this dynamic. 

MLB: National League goes 3-2 in Interleague, helped by replay reversal in Reds game
Continuing our updates of Interleague action during the busy cross-pollination weeks…

AL Wednesday Winners

  • Toronto (-120) won at Milwaukee 8-4
  • Oakland (-140) beat Miami 4-1

NL Wednesday Winners

  • Arizona (-110) beat the Chicago White Sox 8-6
  • Washington (-160) beat Seattle 5-1
  • Cincinnati ( 170) beat Cleveland 4-3

Interleague records (through Wednesday) 

  • American League 49, National League 36
  • Adjusted for money lines: American League plus 8.6 units
  • American League at home: 24-13 (plus 7.4 units)
  • American League on the road: 25-23 (plus 1.2 units)

Mostly treading water of late after the AL established dominance in earlier action. With the schedule calming down over the next several days…we’ll put this category on the shelf for a few weeks unless a surprise warrants coverage. 

Thanks for joining us today in VSiN City. We return Friday to recap Game Seven action from Ottawa/Pittsburgh in the NHL, and what is expected to also be a series-ender in Cleveland/Boston in the NBA. If you have any comments about today’s Oddsmaker Roundtable show, please drop us a note. Would you like to receive VSiN City every weekday in your morning email? Subscribe right here to take care of that. Don’t forget to follow us on twitter for breaking news and programming bulletins. 

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