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NCAA tournament point spread and futures worksheet

Jeff Fogle
VSiN.com

March 13, 2017 04:26 PM

To make your 2017 NCAA Tournament viewing (and betting!) experience more enjoyable, we’ve compiled an easy-to-use worksheet you can use from this point forward to monitor developments in point spreads and futures prices.

We’ve put together what could be termed “market” power ratings showing one of the scales utilized by VSIN oddsmakers Jimmy Vaccaro, Vinny Magliulo and Chris Andrews this past weekend. They’re presented in bracket format. This allows you to look ahead to see likely point spreads in future matchups.

Following those will be Futures prices to win the championship that were just updated Monday morning March 13 at the South Point.

First, the team ratings. We’ll run them in order of the bracket announcement on CBS, as many of you will be studying these for your bracket contests as well as for sports betting purposes. A quick example from the East . . .

Virginia (81) vs. NC Wilmington (73)

Florida (79) vs. East Tennessee State (69)

You’ll notice right off that the numbers are in line with the current point spreads. Virginia is about -8 over NC Wilmington. Florida is -10 in their game. Should the favorites advance, we can deduce from the numbers that Virginia will be about a two-point favorite over Florida pending any adjustments that must be made for injuries, surprises in form, or various market dynamics. If there’s an upset, you can use those numbers to anticipate the likely Round of 32 line.

Let’s run them uninterrupted so you can print this article out and keep it handy through the week.  

EAST

Villanova (84) vs. the winner of New Orleans (61) vs. Mt. St. Mary’s (59)

Wisconsin (80) vs. Virginia Tech (74)

Virginia (81) vs. NC Wilmington (73)

Florida (79) vs. East Tennessee State (69)

SMU (80) vs. the winner of USC (74) vs. Providence (72)

Baylor (81) vs. New Mexico State (69)

South Carolina (76) vs. Marquette (74)

Duke (83) vs. Troy (64) 

MIDWEST

Kansas (83) vs. the winner of NC Central (64) vs. Cal-Davis (60)

Miami (76) vs. Michigan State (74)

Iowa State (80) vs. Nevada (74)

Purdue (80) vs. Vermont (72)

Creighton (75) vs. Rhode Island (74)

Oregon (81) vs. Iona (66)

Michigan (81) vs. Oklahoma State (79)

Louisville (81) vs. Jacksonville State (61)

SOUTH

North Carolina (84) vs. Texas Southern (57)

Arkansas (73) vs. Seton Hall (72)

Minnesota (75) vs. Middle Tennessee (74)

Butler (79) vs. Winthrop (68)

Cincinnati (79) vs. the winner of Kansas State (75) vs. Wake Forest (75)

UCLA (81) vs. Kent State (63)

Dayton (74) vs. Wichita State (80)

Kentucky (81) vs. Northern Kentucky (62)

WEST

Gonzaga (83) s. South Dakota State (60)

Northwestern (75) vs. Vanderbilt (76)

Notre Dame (80) vs. Princeton (73)

West Virginia (81) vs. Bucknell (67)

Maryland (76) vs. Xavier (74)

Florida State (80) vs. Florida Gulf Coast (68)

St. Mary’s (77) vs. VCU (73)

Arizona (81) vs. North Dakota state (64)

Now let’s move to the futures prices, as posted at the South Point Hotel and Casino on Monday morning.

5/1: North Carolina, Duke

6/1: Gonzaga

7/1: Villanova, Kansas

10/1: Arizona, UCLA, Louisville, Kentucky

15/1: Oregon, Florida, West Virginia

20/1: Purdue

30/1: Baylor, Florida State, Notre Dame, Minnesota

40/1: Butler

50/1: Virginia

60/1: Iowa State, SMU, Cincinnati

75/1: Wichita State, Oklahoma State, Creighton, Maryland

100/1: St. Mary’s, Michigan, Michigan State

120/1: South Carolina, Miami

150/1: Wisconsin, Dayton

200/1: Northwestern, Arkansas

250/1: Vanderbilt

300/1: Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, Kansas State, Wake Forest, Xavier

500/1: Nevada, Marquette, VCU, Providence, USC, Rhode Island, NC Wilmington

1000/1: Princeton, Middle Tennessee, East Tennessee State, Vermont, Bucknell

2000/1: Winthrop, New Mexico State, Kent State, Florida Gulf Coast, Iona, Troy, Jacksonville State, North Dakota, Northern Kentucky, Texas Southern,

3000/1: Mt. St. Mary’s, New Orleans, NC Central, Cal Davis

If you’re interested in the “percentage” equivalents of those prices…

5/1 means a 17% chance to win

6/1 means a 14% chance to win

7/1 means a 12.5% chance to win

10/1 means a 9% chance to win

15/1 means a 6% chance to win

20/1 means a 5% chance to win

30/1 means a 3% chance to win

40/1, 50/1, and 60/1 mean about a 2% chance to win

Everything below that rounds to a 1% chance or less to win

You’ll note that percentages on Futures prices add up to more than 100% for the full field. That’s because of the built-in edge the house charges on these propositions.

If you’ve been watching the VSIN broadcasts this month, you’re likely aware of the “four team vs. the field” prop created at South Point.

That’s….

Villanova, Kansas, Duke, and UCLA versus Everyone Else

The opener of pick-em in that prop was hit hard early on, pushing all the way to minus 160 on “Everyone Else,” plus 140 on the Fabulous Four. But interest in Duke after their sweep through the ACC tournament has helped equalize the percentages. Using the equivalents above:

Duke is 17% to win

Villanova and Kansas are both 12.5% to win

UCLA is 9% to win

That adds up to 51% for the Fabulous Four, 49% for the rest of the field. Accounting for the house edge on the most popular Futures choices, we’re back to that prop looking like more of a toss-up. Handicappers and bettors will have to determine if the market has become too enthusiastic about Duke. Or perhaps, that the market hasn’t docked UCLA enough after the Bruins’ disappointing showing in the Pac 12 tournament (barely surviving USC and losing to Arizona).

We hope you find this NCAA Tournament worksheet helpful. Enjoy the 2017 Big Dance!

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