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NCAA regional odds, possible surprises

By Steve Makinen  () 

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(To view the chart accompanying this report, subscribe to Point Spread Weekly)

The NCAA tournament tips off Thursday, and after we put together the VSiN College Basketball Tournament Betting Guide, I wanted to highlight some thoughts I had about the upcoming action. Among them, the odds by region were released by Superbook on Monday night, and I want to elaborate on a few potential surprises that I said could be coming. Let’s get to it.

Superbook odds to win each region

This is the first time I have projected each team’s percentage chances to win regionals. I did this for each of my ratings sets in the tournament guide. If you’ve come to trust one rating over another, I encourage you to use that analysis to compare with the odds offered by Superbook. For this exercise, I have taken the average of the four ratings sets to come up with one overall percentage chance for each team to win its region — in other words, to advance to the Final Four. From there, I converted the Superbook odds to a theoretical percentage chance to win when taking into account the juice on a typical bet of that nature. I compared those theoretical Superbook odds with mine to see which teams had the greatest value.

I considered only the teams that Superbook had at + 8000 or better. 

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