The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Wednesday, November 1, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detail the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, MIAMI, DALLAS, UTAH, LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, DENVER
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the “super” majority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, DALLAS
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority HANDLE was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority groups was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, a R.O.I. of -48.6%. This is a significant loss rate and shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE): BOSTON ML
A winning angle for majority handle money line bettors:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group actually produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and an R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement. Again, it is quite rare, as there were 771 games in our sample.
System Matches (PLAY): CHARLOTTE ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): POR-DET, MIL-TOR, BKN-MIA, MEM-UTA, SAC-GSW, LAC-LAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 58% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 40-19 ATS (67.8%). This number for a “super” majority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WAS-ATL, MEM-UTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: In NBA games with extremely low totals last season, or those less than 214, majority handle bettors were 9-22 (29%), whole majority number of bets groups were even worse at 7-24 (22.6%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): CLE-NYK
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams playing an A2H b2b game were 24-15 SU and 24-15 ATS (61.5%) hosting teams playing in a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
11/1: NEW YORK vs. Cleveland
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (-6.5 vs Cleveland)
* UNDER the total was 62-33 (65.3%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
11/1: UNDER the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-NEW ORLEANS
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 225.5)
* OVER the total was 26-16 (61.9%) last season when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
11/1: OVER the total in LA LAKERS-LA CLIPPERS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225.5)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* ATLANTA is 17-28 SU and 15-29 ATS in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
11/1: FADE ATLANTA vs. Washington
System Match: FADE ATLANTA ATS (-8 vs Washington)
* ATLANTA was 24-7 OVER the total in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario last season
11/1: Over the total in WASHINGTON-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 237.5)
* GOLDEN STATE is 41-6 SU & 33-13 ATS at HOME in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
11/1: GOLDEN STATE vs. Sacramento
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-7 vs Sacramento)
* GOLDEN STATE is 66-16 SU & 53-27 ATS at HOME in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons
11/1: GOLDEN STATE vs. Sacramento
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-7 vs Sacramento)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 36-14 OVER the total at HOME in the 4thin6Days game scenario over the last three seasons
11/1: Over the total in NEW ORLEANS-OKLAHOMA CITY
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225.5)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-6 SU and 16-5 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
11/1: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. New Orleans
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS (-3.5 vs New Orleans)
* TORONTO is 26-5 SU and 23-8 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
11/1: TORONTO vs. Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (+5 vs Milwaukee)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 97-27 SU and 82-42 ATS (66.1%) run.
System Matches: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-7 vs Sacramento)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 65-37 SU and 61-38-3 ATS (61.6%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS (+2.5 at Houston), PLAY MEMPHIS ATS (+3 at Utah)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 63-46 (57.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 114-80 (58.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 148-102 (59.2%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in IND-BOS (o/u at 232)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 152-174 SU and 140-185-1 ATS (43.1%) in the next game.
System Match: FADE DETROIT (-3.5 vs Portland)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 172-173 SU and 151-184-10 ATS (45.1%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-5 vs Chicago)
BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
NBA teams that beat a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have gone just 51-59 SU and 45-61-4 ATS (42.5%) in their next game.
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-7 vs Sacramento)
NBA teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next game, going 62-43 SU and 64-41 ATS (61%)
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+3.5 at Oklahoma City)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 9% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (115-140 ATS, 45.0%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (167-142 ATS, 54.0%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE MEMPHIS (+3 at Utah)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON +8 (+12.6), 2. BROOKLYN +6 (+4.7), 3. SACRAMENTO +7 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -6.5 (+3.0), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -3.5 (+1.9), 3. MILWAUKEE -5 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON +8 (+9.6), 2. BROOKLYN +6 (+8.7), 3. INDIANA +11.5 (+3.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -6.5 (+2.0), 2. MILWAUKEE -5 (+1.3), 3. OKLAHOMA CITY -3.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-DET OVER 214 (+8.4), 2. MEM-UTA OVER 227.5 (+4.1), 3. IND-BOS OVER 232 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-DAL UNDER 225.5 (-8.8), 2. SAC-GSW UNDER 233.5 (-4.4), 3. NOP-OKC UNDER 225.5 (-4.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON +8 (+13.0), 2. BROOKLYN +6 (+4.2), 3. SACRAMENTO +7 (+2.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -6.5 (+3.3), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -3.5 (+2.0), 3. DENVER -3 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-DET OVER 214 (+8.1), 2. MEM-UTA OVER 227.5 (+5.9), 3. CHA-HOU OVER 223 (+4.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-DAL UNDER 225.5 (-4.5), 2. SAC-GSW UNDER 233.5 (-2.3), 3. BKN-MIA UNDER 222.5 (-2.0)
Top Daily Head-To-Head Series Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:
(529) PORTLAND at (530) DETROIT
* PORTLAND has won the last six ATS vs. Detroit
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND ATS
(531) MILWAUKEE at (532) TORONTO
* TORONTO is on a 6-2-1 ATS run vs. Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS
(533) NEW ORLEANS at (534) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Road teams have won the last five ATS in the NOP-OKC series
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS
(535) WASHINGTON at (536) ATLANTA
* Home teams are on a 6-2 ATS surge in the WAS-ATL series
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS
(537) CLEVELAND at (538) NEW YORK
* NEW YORK has won the last four ATS hosting Cleveland
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS
(539) INDIANA at (540) BOSTON
* Underdogs are 9-2 ATS in the IND-BOS series since 2020
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS
(541) BROOKLYN at (542) MIAMI
* Underdogs are 10-3 ATS in the BRK-MIA series since 2019
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS
(543) CHARLOTTE at (544) HOUSTON
* CHARLOTTE is on a 5-1 ATS run versus Houston
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS
(545) DENVER at (546) MINNESOTA
* MINNESOTA is 4-1 ATS in the last five hosting Denver
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS
(547) CHICAGO at (548) DALLAS
* CHICAGO is 5-1 ATS in the last six vs. Dallas
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS
(549) MEMPHIS at (550) UTAH
* UTAH is on 8-2-1 ATS run versus Memphis
System Match: PLAY UTAH ATS
(551) SACRAMENTO at (552) GOLDEN STATE
* ROAD TEAMS have won the last five ATS in the SAC-GSW series
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS
(553) LA CLIPPERS at (554) LA LAKERS
* LA CLIPPERS are 11-1 ATS in the last 12 of the LA series with the Lakers
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS