The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Thursday, November 2, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detail the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 1:20 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the HANDLE was on the HOME side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): PHOENIX
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following system shows some success that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, UTAH
A winning angle for majority handle moneyline bettors:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group actually produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and an R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement. Again, it is quite rare, as there were 771 games in our sample.
System Matches (PLAY): UTAH
This last system involves totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DET-NOP, ORL-UTA, SAS-PHX
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 57-37 SU and 62-30 ATS (67.4%) versus teams playing a 3rd Game in 4 Days over the last three seasons.
11/2: PHILADELPHIA vs. Toronto
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-8.5 vs Toronto)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest were 30-11 SU and 28-12-1 ATS (70%) hosting teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
11/2: PHILADELPHIA vs. Toronto
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-8.5 vs Toronto)
* Home teams playing an A2H b2b game were 24-16 SU and 24-16 ATS (60%) hosting teams playing in a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
11/2: NEW ORLEANS vs. Detroit
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (-7 vs Detroit)
* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 16-11 SU and 19-8 ATS (70.4%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game last season.
11/2: UTAH vs. Orlando
System Match: PLAY UTAH ATS (+1 vs Orlando)
* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 25-18 SU and 26-16-1 ATS (61.9%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
11/2: UTAH vs. Orlando
System Match: PLAY UTAH ATS (+1 vs Orlando)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Day Rest were 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS (72.2%) last season hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
11/2: PHILADELPHIA vs. Toronto
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-8.5 vs Toronto)
* Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 11-7 SU and 12-6 ATS (66.7%) last season hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
11/2: UTAH vs. Orlando
System Match: PLAY UTAH ATS (+1 vs Orlando)
* OVER the total was 59-38 (60.8%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
11/2: Over the total in UTAH-ORLANDO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 221)
UNDER the total was 27-15 (64.3%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2B and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
11/2: Under the total in ORLANDO-UTAH
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 221)
* OVER the total is 9-1 (90%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing in a H2A b2b scenario.
11/2: Over the total in PHILADELPHIA-TORONTO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 215)
* OVER the total was 24-16 (60%) last season when the home team was on 3+DaysRest and the road team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
11/2: Over the total in PHILADELPHIA-TORONTO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 215)
* OVER the total was 18-10 (64.3%) last season when the home team was on a A2H b2b and the road team was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
11/2: Over the total in NEW ORLEANS-DETROIT
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 217.5)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* ORLANDO is 6-6 SU and 10-2 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario lately
11/2: ORLANDO at Utah
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS (-1 at Utah)
* SAN ANTONIO was 2-15 SU and 3-14 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario last season
11/2: FADE SAN ANTONIO at Phoenix
System Match: FADE SAN ANTONIO (+8.5 at Phoenix)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on some various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NO NBA TEAM STRENGTH SYSTEMS TODAY
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 215-160 (57.3%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in TOR-PHI (o/u at 215)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 152-175 SU and 140-186-1 ATS (42.9%) in the next game.
System Match: FADE UTAH (+1 vs Orlando)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 173-173 SU and 152-184-10 ATS (45.2%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Match: FADE UTAH (+1 vs Orlando)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO +8.5 (+2.9), 2. UTAH +1 (+2.6)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -7 (+0.4), 2. PHILADELPHIA -8.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO +8.5 (+0.6), 2. SAN ANTONIO +8.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -7 (+1.7)
Today’s Top BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-UTA OVER 221 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TOR-PHI UNDER 215 (-1.8), 2. DET-NOP UNDER 217.5 (-1.1), 3. SAS-PHX UNDER 226.5 (-0.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +1 (+4.3), 2. SAN ANTONIO +8.5 (+2.4), 3. TORONTO +8.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -7 (+1.3)
Today’s Top BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-UTA OVER 221 (+6.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-NOP UNDER 217.5 (-6.2), 2. TOR-PHI UNDER 215 (-0.7), 3. SAS-PHX UNDER 226.5 (-0.2)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:
(557) DETROIT at (558) NEW ORLEANS
* The last four games of the DET-NOP series went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(559) ORLANDO at (560) UTAH
* UTAH is on an 8-3-1 ATS run vs. Orlando
System Match: PLAY UTAH ATS
(561) SAN ANTONIO at (562) PHOENIX
* Road teams are 11-2-2 ATS in the SAN-PHO series since 2019
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS
(555) TORONTO at (556) PHILADELPHIA
* Road teams are on a 5-2 ATS run in the TOR-PHI series
System Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS