The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Sunday, November 12, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detail the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1:
When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, BROOKLYN, SAN ANTONIO, PHOENIX, GOLDEN STATE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS, DENVER, PORTLAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It was a somewhat rare situation, but when a majority handle backed a home underdog in the NBA last season, that group produced a 19-11 ATS record (63.3%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 30 games was only 3.9% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the “super” majority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY): PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY): MIAMI
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority group was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, an R.O.I. of -48.6%. This significant loss rate shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK ML, LA LAKERS ML
This last system involves totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHA-NYK, MEM-LAC, DEN-HOU, MIA-SAS, OKC-PHX, MIN-GSW
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 160-105 SU & 156-101 ATS (60.7%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
11/12: DENVER at Houston
System Match: PLAY DENVER -4.5
11/12: PORTLAND at La Lakers
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND +10
11/12: CHICAGO vs. Detroit
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO -7.5
11/12: NEW YORK vs. Charlotte
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK -10
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 45-23 SU and 43-23-2 ATS (65.2%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last two seasons.
11/12: CHICAGO vs. Detroit
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO -7.5
11/12: NEW YORK vs. Charlotte
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK -10
* Home teams on One Day Rest are 39-27 SU & 40-25-1 ATS (61.5%) hosting teams playing on a 3rd Game in 8+ Days game over the last three seasons.
11/12: LA LAKERS vs. Portland
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS -10
* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 25-19 SU and 26-17-1 ATS (60.5%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
11/12: GOLDEN STATE vs. Minnesota
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE -1.5
* OVER the total was 87-56 (60.8%) over the last two seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
11/12: Over the total in HOUSTON-DENVER
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 217)
11/12: Over the total in LA LAKERS-PORTLAND
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 220)
11/12: Over the total in CHICAGO-DETROIT
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 217.5)
11/12: Over the total in NEW YORK-CHARLOTTE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 223.5)
* UNDER the total was 27-16 (62.8 %) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
11/12: Under the total in MINNESOTA-GOLDEN STATE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 221)
* OVER the total was 41-27 (60.3%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
11/12: Over the total in CHICAGO-DETROIT
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 217.5)
11/12: Over the total in NEW YORK-CHARLOTTE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 223.5)
* UNDER the total was 24-14 (63.2%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
11/12: Under the total in LA LAKERS-PORTLAND
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 220)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* MIAMI is 19-16 SU and 22-12 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
11/12: MIAMI at San Antonio
System Match: PLAY MIAMI -1
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 101-27 SU and 84-44 ATS (65.6%) run.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-6.5 vs Indiana)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 64-48 (57.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 115-80 (59%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 150-102 (59.5%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in CHA-NYK (o/u at 223.5), PLAY OVER in POR-LAL (o/u at 220)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
Teams scoring 134 points or more in any game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 177-175 SU & 148-194-10 ATS (43.3%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-2.5 at New Orleans)
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more FREE THROW ATTEMPTS trended UNDER the total the next game, 223-162 (57.9%) since 2021.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in IND-PHI (o/u at 237), PLAY UNDER in MEM-LAC (o/u at 224.5)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 178-175 SU & 155-187-11 ATS (45.3%) the next game over the L3 seasons.
System Match: FADE INDIANA (+6.5 at Philadelphia)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 20-41 SU but 35-26 ATS (57.4%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS (+1 vs Miami)
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 9% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (117-142 ATS, 45.2%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (169-143 ATS, 54.2%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-8.5 vs. Memphis), PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+2.5 vs. Dallas), FADE DETROIT (+7.5 at Chicago), PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+1 vs. Miami)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 41-31 SU and 42-28-3 ATS (60%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-8.5 vs Memphis)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 135-169 ATS (44.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 17-71 SU and 35-50-3 ATS (41.2%).
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-6.5 vs Indiana), FADE DETROIT (+7.5 at Chicago)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). SAN ANTONIO +1 (+1.8) and OKLAHOMA CITY +3 (+1.8), 3. WASHINGTON +6.5 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). NEW YORK -10 (+2.0) and LA LAKERS -10 (+2.0), 3. PHILADELPHIA -6.5 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT +7.5 (+3.7), 2. PORTLAND +10 (+3.3), 3. HOUSTON +4.5 (+2.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -6.5 (+2.5), 2. MIAMI -1 (+0.8), 3. NEW YORK -10 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WSH-BKN OVER 235 (+2.1), 2. CHA-NYK OVER 223.5 (+1.6), 3. OKC-PHX OVER 232.5 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-GSW UNDER 221 (-1.9), 2. IND-PHI UNDER 237 (-1.5), 3. DEN-HOU UNDER 217 (-0.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON +6.5 (+2.8), 2. SAN ANTONIO +1 (+1.3), 3. NEW ORLEANS +2.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -10 (+6.9), 2. CHICAGO -7.5 (+1.9), 3. GOLDEN STATE -1.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-SAS OVER 221.5 (+2.8), 2. IND-PHI OVER 237 (+2.3), 3. WSH-BKN OVER 235 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). MEM-LAC UNDER 224.5 (-3.4) and OKC-PHX UNDER 232.5 (-3.4), 3. MIN-GSW UNDER 221 (-3.0)
Top Daily Head-To-Head Series Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:
(531) CHARLOTTE at (532) NEW YORK
* CHARLOTTE has won the last four ATS at New York
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS
(543) DALLAS at (544) NEW ORLEANS
* Home teams are 3-0-1 ATS in the last four games of the DAL-NOP series
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS
(539) DENVER at (540) HOUSTON
* DENVER is 5-1 ATS in the last six games vs. Houston but lost last time
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS
(545) DETROIT at (546) CHICAGO
* Home teams are on a 7-1 ATS surge in the DET-CHI series
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS
(537) INDIANA at (538) PHILADELPHIA
* Over the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of the IND-PHI series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(535) MEMPHIS at (536) LA CLIPPERS
* MEMPHIS is 6-1 ATS in the last seven vs. LA Clippers
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS
(541) MIAMI at (542) SAN ANTONIO
* Road teams are on a 5-0-1 ATS run in the MIA-SAN series
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS
(549) MINNESOTA at (550) GOLDEN STATE
* Home teams are on an 11-2 ATS run in the MIN-GSW series
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS
(547) OKLAHOMA CITY at (548) PHOENIX
* Over the total is 8-2-1 in the last 11 games of the OKC-PHO series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(551) PORTLAND at (552) LA LAKERS
* Home teams are 6-2 ATS in the last eight games of the POR-LAL series
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS
(533) WASHINGTON at (534) BROOKLYN
* BROOKLYN is on a 5-1-2 ATS run vs. Washington
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS