The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Monday, November 6, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detail the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, MILWAUKEE, LA CLIPPERS, UTAH, SACRAMENTO, BOSTON, ATLANTA
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the “super” majority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY): DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, SAN ANTONIO, DALLAS, LA LAKERS, LA CLIPPERS, UTAH, BOSTON, OKLAHOMA CITY
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority groups was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, a R.O.I. of -48.6%. This is a significant loss rate and shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE): PHILADELPHIA ML
Now, for a pair of winning angles for majority handle moneyline bettors:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and an R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement. Again, it is quite rare, as there were 771 games in our sample.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS, LA LAKERS, UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: There was a supermajority figure that really stood out when analyzing the handle of bettors backing an underdog in a money line wager. This “super” majority percentage was 75% or more, and this group went 10-2 for +11.35 units of profit. This is the highest R.O.I. system of the bunch by far, 94.6%.
System Matches (PLAY): UTAH (*if they stay at 75% or higher of ML HANDLE by tip-off*)
This last systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): GSW-DET, LAL-MIA, LAC-NYK, UTA-CHI, SAC-HOU, NOP-DEN
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game were 28-14 SU and 25-16-1 ATS (61%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
11/6: DETROIT vs. Golden State
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+7 vs GSW)
* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 16-12 SU and 19-9 ATS (67.9%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game last season.
11/6: DETROIT vs. Golden State
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+7 vs GSW)
* UNDER the total was 63-33 (65.6%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
11/6: UNDER the total in DENVER-NEW ORLEANS
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 221.5)
* OVER the total was 61-38 (61.6%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
11/6: Over the total in DETROIT-GOLDEN STATE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 224.5)
* Over the total was 60-38 (61.2%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
11/6: Over the total in DETROIT-GOLDEN STATE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 224.5)
* Over the total was 23-13 (63.9%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing an A2A b2b game.
11/6: Over the total in DETROIT-GOLDEN STATE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 224.5)
* Over the total was 27-16 (62.8%) last season when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
11/6: Over the total in INDIANA-SAN ANTONIO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 238)
11/6: Over the total in ORLANDO-DALLAS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 224)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* BROOKLYN was 15-4 Under the total at home in the 4th in 6 Days scenario last season
11/6: Under the total in MILWAUKEE-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 233.5)
* GOLDEN STATE is 22-7 OVER the total in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
11/6: Over the total in DETROIT-GOLDEN STATE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 224.5)
* INDIANA is 15-12 SU and 19-7 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home scenario game over the last three seasons
11/6: INDIANA vs. San Antonio
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-8.5 vs San Antonio)
* INDIANA is 50-29 OVER the total at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons
11/6: Over the total in INDIANA-SAN ANTONIO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 238)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-8 SU and 17-6 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
11/6: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Atlanta
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (+3 vs Atlanta)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 99-27 SU and 83-43 ATS (65.9%) run.
System Matches: PLAY DENVER (-5.5 vs New Orleans)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 65-40 SU and 61-41-3 ATS (59.8%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY UTAH (+4 at Chicago), PLAY SACRAMENTO (-1 at Houston)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 63-47 (57.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 115-80 (59%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 149-102 (59.4%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in WSH-PHI (o/u at 228.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 172-175 SU and 144-193-10 ATS (42.7%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (+3 vs Atlanta)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 154-177 SU and 141-188-2 ATS (42.9%) in the next game.
System Matches: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (+3 vs Atlanta), FADE MILWAUKEE (-5.5 at Brooklyn)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 175-175 SU and 153-186-11 ATS (45.1%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE (-5.5 at Brooklyn), FADE INDIANA (-8.5 vs San Antonio)
UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 95-66 SU and 95-64-2 ATS (59.7%).
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-11 vs Washington)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 70-13 SU but 32-49-3 ATS (39.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA ATS (-11 vs Washington)
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 9% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (115-142 ATS, 44.7%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (167-142 ATS, 54.0%) over the last three seasons.
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS (+7 vs Golden State)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +5.5 (+2.3), 2. NEW YORK +1 (+2.1), 3. SAN ANTONIO +8.5 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -5.5 (+4.3), 2. GOLDEN STATE -7 (+1.0), 3. ORLANDO -1.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +5.5 (+4.5), 2. NEW YORK +1 (+2.1), 3. LA LAKERS +1 (+1.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO -1.5 (+2.5), 2. DENVER -5.5 (+1.4), 3. BOSTON -4 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAC-HOU OVER 218.5 (+2.2), 2. NOP-DEN OVER 221 (+1.3), 3. WSH-PHI OVER 228.5 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-MIN UNDER 223.5 (-1.5), 2. SAS-IND UNDER 238 (-1.3), 3. LAL-MIA UNDER 222.5 (-1.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +5.5 (+2.0), 2(tie). LA LAKERS +1 (+1.1) and SAN ANTONIO +8.5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -5.5 (+4.3), 2. SACRAMENTO -2 (+1.9), 3. GOLDEN STATE -7 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAC-HOU OVER 218.5 (+5.1), 2(tie). SAS-IND OVER 238 (+3.0) and WSH-PHI OVER 228.5 (+3.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NOP-DEN UNDER 221 (-2.7), 2(tie). DAL-ORL UNDER 224 (-1.9) and BOS-MIN UNDER 223.5 (-1.9)
Top Daily Head-To-head Series Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:
(543) ATLANTA at (544) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Road teams have won the last four ATS in the ATL-OKC series
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS
(545) BOSTON at (546) MINNESOTA
* Home teams have won the last four ATS in the BOS-MIN series
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS
(529) DALLAS at (530) ORLANDO
* ORLANDO has won the last three ATS hosting Dallas
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS
(533) GOLDEN STATE at (534) DETROIT
* DETROIT is 9-5 ATS vs. Golden State since 2016
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS
(537) LA CLIPPERS at (538) NEW YORK
* The last four games of the LAC-NYK series in New York went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER in LAC-NYK
(535) LA LAKERS at (536) MIAMI
* Home teams have won the last four ATS in the LAL-MIA series
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS
(539) MILWAUKEE at (540) BROOKLYN
* The last five games of the MIL-BRK series went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER in MIL-BKN
(549) NEW ORLEANS at (550) DENVER
* Under the total is 12-4 in the last 16 of the NOP-DEN series
System Match: PLAY UNDER in NOP-DEN
(541) SACRAMENTO at (542) HOUSTON
* HOUSTON is 9-5-1 ATS hosting SAC since 2015
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS
(527) SAN ANTONIO at (528) INDIANA
* Underdogs have won the last three ATS in the SAN-IND series
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS
(547) UTAH at (548) CHICAGO
* CHICAGO is 4-1 ATS in the last five vs. Utah
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS
(531) WASHINGTON at (532) PHILADELPHIA
* WASHINGTON is 4-2 ATS in the last six vs. Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS