VSiN Analytics NBA Report for Monday, November 20

By VSiN Analytics  () 

November 20, 2023 01:20 PM
 

 

The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Monday, November 20, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detail the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1:  When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.

System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, MILWAUKEE, BOSTON, MIAMI, LA CLIPPERS

 

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, MINNESOTA

 

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DEN-DET, BOS-CHA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 58% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 40-19 ATS (67.8%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER): MIL-WSH

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: In NBA games with extremely low totals last season, or those less than 214, majority handle bettors were 9-22 (29%), whole majority number of bets groups were even worse at 7-24 (22.6%).

System Matches (PLAY UNDER): MIA-CHI

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).

System Matches (PLAY OVER): MIL-WSH

 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 39-17 SU and 34-19-3 ATS (64.2%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game last season.

11/20: CHARLOTTE vs. Boston

System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+9 vs BOS)

11/20: GOLDEN STATE vs. Houston

System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-7 vs HOU)

11/20: NEW ORLEANS vs. Sacramento

System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+1 vs SAC)

 

* Road teams playing an A2A b2b game are 21-29 SU but 30-19-1 ATS (61.2%) facing hosts playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game over the last three seasons.

11/20: BOSTON at Charlotte

System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-9 at CHA)

11/20: SACRAMENTO at New Orleans

System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (-1 at NOP)

 

* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home were 19-8 SU and 18-9 ATS (66.7%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.

11/20: CHARLOTTE vs. Boston

System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+9 vs BOS)

11/20: GOLDEN STATE vs. Houston

System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-7 vs HOU)

11/20: NEW ORLEANS vs. Sacramento

System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+1 vs SAC)

 

* Under the total was 66-35 (65.3%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.

11/20: Under the total in CHICAGO-MIAMI

System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 208.5)

 

* Over the total was 54-37 (59.3%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.

11/20: Over the total in CHARLOTTE-BOSTON

System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 232.5)

11/20: Over the total in DETROIT-DENVER

System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 224.5)

11/20: Over the total in NEW ORLEANS-SACRAMENTO

System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 237)

 

* Over the total was 20-10 (66.7%) last season when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.

11/20: OVER the total in DETROIT-DENVER

System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 224.5)

 

Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends

The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* CHARLOTTE is 25-11 UNDER the total in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last three seasons

11/20: Under the total in BOSTON-CHARLOTTE

System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 232.5)

 

* GOLDEN STATE is 37-12 SU and 30-16 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last three seasons

11/20: GOLDEN STATE vs. Houston

System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-7 vs HOU)

 

* GOLDEN STATE is 67-17 SU and 53-28 ATS at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons

11/20: GOLDEN STATE vs. Houston

System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-7 vs HOU)

 

* HOUSTON is 26-9 Over the total on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last three seasons

11/20: OVER the total in GOLDEN STATE-HOUSTON

System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 220)

 

* WASHINGTON is 14-3 Over the total at home in the 2 Days Rest scenario over the last three seasons

11/20: Over the total in WASHINGTON-MILWAUKEE

System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 245)

 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:

Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 64-48 (57.1%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 115-82 (58.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 151-103 (59.4%).

System Matches: PLAY OVER the total in MIL-WSH (*only if MIL becomes a double-digit favorite*)

 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.

BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 225-166 (57.5%) since 2021.

System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in DEN-DET (o/u at 224.5)

 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #1:

When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 21-44 SU but 35-30 ATS (53.8%) over the last three seasons.

System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS (+9.5 vs MIL), PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS (+9 vs BOS)

 

NBA Streak Betting System #4:

Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 38-10 SU and 30-16-2 ATS (65.2%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.

System Matches: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-9.5 at WSH), PLAY BOSTON (-9 at CHA)

 

NBA Streak Betting System #5:

There has been a 9% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (117-147 ATS, 44.3%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (172-152 ATS, 53.1%) over the last three seasons.

System Matches: PLAY DETROIT (+9 vs. DEN), PLAY WASHINGTON (+9.5 vs. MIL), PLAY CHARLOTTE (+9 vs. BOS), PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-7 vs. HOU), FADE SAN ANTONIO (+8.5 vs. LAC)

 

NBA Streak Betting System #6:

Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 41-33 SU and 42-30-3 ATS (58.3%) surge.

System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+9.5 vs MIL)

 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:

Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 137-174 ATS (44.1%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 17-74 SU and 36-52-3 ATS (40.9%).

System Matches: FADE DETROIT (+9 vs DEN), FADE SAN ANTONIO (+8.5 vs LAC)

 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +1.5 (+1.4), 2. WASHINGTON +9.5 (+1.0), 3. NEW YORK +2.5 (+0.9)

 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -9 (+1.8), 2. LA CLIPPERS -8.5 (+1.7), 3. DENVER -9 (+1.1)

 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON +9.5 (+5.0), 2. HOUSTON +7 (+3.0), 3. NEW ORLEANS +1 (+1.7)

 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -9 (+5.2), 2. DENVER -9 (+0.8)

 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-CHI OVER 208.5 (+2.7), 2. LAC-SAS OVER 230.5 (+0.6), 3. MIL-WSH OVER 245 (+0.4)

 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-DET UNDER 224.5 (-4.8), 2. BOS-CHA UNDER 232.5 (-2.9), 3. SAC-NOP UNDER 237 (-2.5)

 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +1.5 (+1.4), 2. NEW ORLEANS +1 (+0.9), 3. CHARLOTTE +9 (+0.8)

 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE -7 (+3.1), 2. LA CLIPPERS -8.5 (+2.4)

 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-CHI OVER 208.5 (+2.6), 2. LAC-SAS OVER 230.5 (+0.7), 3. NYK-MIN OVER 214.5 (+0.3)

 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-CHA UNDER 232.5 (-4.7), 2. DEN-DET UNDER 224.5 (-3.6), 3. SAC-NOP UNDER 237 (-3.4)

 

Top Daily Head-To-Head Series Trends

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(503) BOSTON at (504) CHARLOTTE

* BOSTON is 6-1 ATS in the last seven at Charlotte

System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS

 

(501) DENVER at (502) DETROIT

* Road teams are on a 4-1 ATS surge in the DEN-DET series

System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS

 

(515) HOUSTON at (516) GOLDEN STATE

* GOLDEN STATE has won the last four ATS vs. Houston

System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS

 

(513) LA CLIPPERS at (514) SAN ANTONIO

* Home teams have won the last four ATS in the LAC-SAN series

System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS

 

(511) MIAMI at (512) CHICAGO

* The last four games of the MIA-CHI series went Under the total

System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

 

(505) MILWAUKEE at (506) WASHINGTON

* Home teams are on a 5-2 ATS run in MIL-WAS head-to-head series

System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS

 

(507) NEW YORK at (508) MINNESOTA

* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the NYK-MIN series in Minnesota

System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

 

(509) SACRAMENTO at (510) NEW ORLEANS

* Favorites are 6-2 ATS in the last eight of the SAC-NOP h2h series

System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS

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