Tuley's Takes: Sunday Best Bets in NBA Finals, plus USFL and 2 MLB First 5 plays

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

June 4, 2023 08:13 AM


Saturday Best Bet Results

Saturday was an exciting mix of horse racing and sports betting in the Tuley’s Takes home office; we went 0-for-3 on the ponies but continued our winning ways at 2-1 on the sports side.

I won my Best Bet of the day on the Philadelphia Stars +6.5 vs. the Birmingham Stallions in the USFL despite being afraid I had jinxed myself by talking about how well I had been doing with my undocumented winning bets the past month in the league where dogs have been cashing at a 75% clip through the first seven weeks.

But I didn’t have to worry much as dogs went 2-0 ATS in the USFL on Saturday and the Stars were the right side the whole way, nearly pulling the outright upset of the league’s top team and holding on to cover the +6.5 in a 27-24 loss.

I also won my top MLB First 5 Inning bet on the Rockies F5 +130 at the Royals as the Rockies easily led 5-2 to cash our bet and went on to win 6-4 for those using our picks to be the full-game money line, but lost on the Cubs F5 +135 as they didn’t get to Yu Darvish as expected and trailed 3-0 after 5.

The 2-1 record improved up to 4-2-1 so far in June for a profit of $265.91 based on $100 flat bets, according to the VSiN Pro Picks page after going 41-28-8 (59.4%) in the month of May for a profit of 15.6 units.

I also have to give a shout-out to my “Team Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes” teammates for carrying me on the race side. Ed Sehon (aka Mr. Ed, who will have his breakdowns of the Acorn and Belmont Stakes cards on Friday and Saturday at https://www.vsin.com/horse-racing/ after having National Treasure in the Preakness) gave out Exactas of $29.60 in Race 5 and $59 in Race 7 on Saturday at Belmont. Rampart race and sportsbook manager Duane Colucci then gave a chalky $94.36 Pick 5 at Churchill and then capped off the day with the $654.25 Late Pick 4 at Santa Anita.

Let’s look for plays on Sunday, including our play on the Heat that we already gave out early in Saturday’s column, plus another USFL play and 2 more in MLB.


NBA Sunday Best Bet

Heat +8.5 at Nuggets: As we stated yesterday, we missed the +9 opener at most books on Thursday night as we were travelling back to Las Vegas, but with the majority of bettors (58% of bets and 66% of handle at DraftKings, according to the VSiN Betting Splits page) taking the Heat to bounce back in the “zig-zag role,” I locked in the +8.5. The line has appeared to settle there as of early Sunday morning. We are expecting the Heat to bounce back in the zig-zag role. While acknowledging that it’s not as strong as it used to be (and we haven’t bet it blindly), it’s still 35-29-1 ATS (54.7%) in the NBA this postseason. But we also like the fact that even though the Nuggets dominated Game 1, the Heat still nearly covered as they lost by only 11 and expect coach Erik Spoelstra and puppet-master Pat Riley to make the proper adjustments to at least cover in Game 2 if not pull the outright upset.

USFL Sunday Best Bet

Memphis Showboats +2 vs. New Jersey Generals: We’ll do back to the well in the USFL. I have this game at pick-’em with Memphis at 4-3 and New Jersey at 2-5. I’m not sure why the Generals are favored, but we’ll take the bonus points just in case. With this line under a field goal, that’s keeping it from being my top play, but we like it enough to keep it a Best Bet.

MLB Sunday Best Bets

Braves First 5 Innings +100 at Diamondbacks: Arizona is in an “anti-swagger” fade spot after having their 6-game winning streak snapped by the Braves on Saturday. I’m not thrilled with fading Zac Gallen, but I’m OK with Michael Soroka as the Braves (34-24) are still the better overall team despite the D-backs (35-24) overachieving in the first two months of the season.

Rockies First 5 Innings +105 at Royals: I’m fading the Royals (17-41) as I still don’t understand why oddsmakers have them favored. The price isn’t as juicy as the +130 we got on Saturday, but I like the pitching matchup better with Kyle Freeland (4-6, 4.22 ERA) vs. Brady Singer (3-4, 7.12 ERA).

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