Tuesday Best Bets, Monday Recaps
Monday was spent around the Tuley’s Takes home office catching up on chores and getting ready to file my taxes. The life of a sports betting reporter isn’t all fun and games, you know.
Our Best Bet of the day started promising with the Yankees (First 5 Inning wager at +130) scoring two runs in the top of the first inning in Cleveland, but the Guardians tied it 2-2 by the end of the fifth for a push. That was disappointing, but not as bad as losing our NHL First-Period Over parlay on the Kraken-Coyotes and Canucks-Kings as there was only one combined goal in the opening period of those games.
We also spent plenty of time monitoring the Timberwolves-Lakers news for their NBA play-in tournament game on Tuesday. I gave out the Timberwolves as a play on VSiN’s “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night and in Monday’s version of this column. The line was T-Wolves +6.5 at the time, but I also stressed that we expected the line to go higher as I had already heard several TV talking heads predict a blowout win by the Lakers and expected the public to also jump in on them as more people talk about the disarray in Minnesota (and Rudy Gobert was suspended on Monday, which caused the line to most to 7.5 and then 8). That’s one of the quirky things about giving out picks like this in public is you can’t make up lines just because you suspect you’ll get a better number later.
So, my official pick is locked in on the VSiN PRO Best Bets page
as Timberwolves +6.5, but it’s more important to me to inform my readers of my opinions early so they can make good betting decisions, so hopefully everyone has been waiting if they plan to follow me on the T-Wolves and fading the Lakers (more on this below as I update my official play).
Let’s get to our daily recaps on Monday’s betting action and then our plays for Tuesday (more than usual with multiple bets in the NHL and MLB, but sometimes it just works out that way).
MLB: Faves went 10-4 with the upsets by the Nationals (+230 at Angels), Cubs (+138 vs. Mariners), Rockies (+125 vs. Cardinals) and Phillies (+118 vs. Marlin). Home teams also went 10-4. Unders led 7-6-1 with the push in WAS-LAA (10). On the season, faves lead 93-60 with 2 pick-’ems. Home teams took a 79-76 lead. Overs dipped to 84-64-7.
NHL: Faves/dogs split 5-5 with upsets by the Sabres (+185 in shootout at Rangers), Predators (+175 in SO at Flames), Senators (+165 vs. Hurricanes), Capitals (+160 vs. Islanders) and Maple Leafs (+125 in OT at Panthers). Road teams went 6-4. Unders led 6-3-1 with push in MIN-CHI (6).
Faves finished the regular season at 808-406 SU with 16 games closing pick-'em, but underdogs finished slightly ahead at 597-590-27 ATS (50.3%). Home teams led 715-515 SU and 613-592-25 ATS (50.9%). In totals wagering, Overs’ slim lead improved to finish 619-593-18 (51.1%).
Tuesday NBA Best Bet
Timberwolves +8 at Lakers: As I mentioned on “The Greg Peterson Experience,” I gave out this play early, but fully expect that it’ll get bet higher by gametime on Tuesday. The Lakers closed the regular season strong despite finishing with the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference and needing to survive in the play-in tourney, and have become a popular dark-horse future-book play. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves had an ugly end to the regular season, losing Jaden McDaniels and then Ruby Gobert being sent home early on Sunday after taking a swing at a teammate. The conventional wisdom out there (and I’ve already heard/seen a lot of TV talking-heads stoke the fire) is that the T-Wolves are in disarray and will get blown out by the Lakers, which is why I expect this line to go higher (and it did go to +8 at most books here in Vegas on Monday). However, I’ve been a lot of teams band together when the masses are counting them out, and don’t forget that Minnesota still closed the regular season with a 3-game winning streak and are certainly capable of at least covering against a Lakers team that I certainly wouldn’t trust laying 6.5 or more points. If you’re with us, grab the best number you can get as the public will probably continue to load up on the Lakers (note: BetMGM was at +8.5 -115 late Monday night/early Tuesday morning as of this writing).
Tuesday NHL Best Bets
Capitals +1.5 -110 at Bruins: This is a “swagger play” on the Capitals as they snapped a 6-game losing streak on Monday vs. the Islanders. I’ll also play a little on the +220 full-game money line. We know the Bruins are awesome, but we’re hoping they have a little bit of a letdown as they’ve already set the record with 63 regular-season wins and are mostly concerned with just being rested and healthy for the playoffs.
Sabres-Devils 1P Over 1.5 -180 / Canucks-Ducks 1P Over 1.5 -155 (PARLAY PAYS +156): For those still playing these parlays, we’re going with the Sabres the No. 3 1P Over team this season, as they combine with the Devils to go 95-64 (59.7%) on the season, The Canucks and Ducks have been the No. 1 and No. 2 1P Over teams most of the season and combine for 109-49 (69%) despite the Canucks coming up empty last night.
Tuesday MLB Best Bets
Diamondbacks First 5 Innings +135 vs. Brewers: I actually have three F5 plays I like on Tuesday, but I’ll go with this one as my Best Bet with the red-hot D-backs (won 3 straight from the Dodgers over the weekend and then won series-opener vs. the Brewers on Monday) sending out Merrill Kelly (3.86 ERA) vs. Corbin Burnes (9.64 ERA). I know those are short samples, but still don’t think Brewers/Burnes should be favored by so much with the way Arizona is playing. The other plays I like are the Marlins F5 +135 at the Phillies and Padres F5 +125 at the Mets.