Tuley: Tuesday Best Bets in NBA, MLB 5/16

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

May 16, 2023 02:38 AM


Monday Best Bet Results

We split our posted Best Bets on Monday, with an asterisk.

My top play was on the Giants First 5 Innings vs. the Phillies. When I gave it out on my regular Sunday night appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (this week with guest host Jeff Parles), the line was Giants F5 -110 with Alex Wood vs. Bailey Falter. While I liked the original pitching matchup, I was also making the bet as a mini-anti-swagger play vs. the Phillies after they had their 5-game winning streak snapped on Sunday.

I almost never list pitchers because, well, I like “action” (especially when I’m betting a situation or the teams in general as opposed to relying on the exact pitching matchup). As it was, I slept in Monday after being up late Sunday night filing my columns, so I actually bet the Giants F5 at -115 after my book adjusted the line after Connor Brogdon was named the starter for the Phillies. Hopefully most of our followers were able to get down on the Giants as they led 6-2 after 5 innings on the way to a 6-3 victory.

Our secondary play on the Brewers F5 -110 didn’t fare as well as the Cardinals led 4-0 after 5 and went on to win 16-1…yikes! But at least it’s just a 1-unit loss no matter how ugly it was.

We’re still 20-13-6 (60.6%) so far in May for a net profit of $888.03 based on $100 flat bets, according to the VSiN Pro Picks page.

Let’s look for more Best Bets on Tuesday’s sports betting schedule as the NBA playoffs resume with the conference finals. I also have a couple of MLB First 5 plays.


NBA Tuesday Best Bet

Lakers +6 at Nuggets / Heat +8.5 at Celtics: In yesterday’s column and on “The Greg Peterson Experience,” I talked about liking both the underdogs, Lakers and Heat, against the spread in individual games in the conference finals. The line was Lakers +5.5 (and Heat +7.5), but I’m glad I didn’t lock in my plays as the line is up to Lakers +6 as of early Tuesday morning and Heat +8.5 in the Eastern Conference Finals that starts Wednesday. Even though SU winners have been gold so far in the playoffs (meaning the points haven't mattered with the favorites either covering or the dogs winning outright), we expect these games to be tighter and at least a couple dogs to be able to cover in losses, hopefully starting with the Lakers and Heat getting big points in Games 1 and 2.

MLB Tuesday Best Bets

Pirates First 5 Innings -105 at Tigers: This is a mini-swagger play on the Pirates (22-19) as they got their swagger back after snapping a 4-game losing streak on Sunday. We now get them vs. the Tigers (18-21) and also get Luis Ortiz (0-1, 3.60 ERA) vs. Michael Lorenzen (1-2, 4.18 ERA). We also have the better offense with the Pirates averaging 4.29 runs per game and the Tigers at just 3.56.

Rangers First 5 -105 vs. Braves: Speaking of higher-scoring offense, the Rangers average an MLB-best 6.20 runs per game, so we’ll take them against a good Braves team (which beat them 12-0 yesterday) as we have Dane Dunning (3-0, 1.72 ERA) to turn things around vs. Jared Shuster (0-1, 8.31 ERA).

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Matt Youmans: Heat (+8.5) at Nuggets. View more picks.


The Lombardi Line: Both the Nuggets and Heat shot poorly in Game 1 of the NBA Finals - and the total is down five points in Game 2 (219.5 to 214.5). Consider betting the OVER if you expect any positive regression. View more tips.