Thursday Best Bets, Wednesday Recaps
We were excited about our pair of double-digit underdog plays on Wednesday in the Tuley’s Takes home office.
Unfortunately, we made the wrong call in which was the better Best Bet as we lost with the Hornets +10.5 vs. the Suns. They fell behind by 16 by halftime, then teased us by getting back within the number by trailing by only 6 after the third quarter, but failed to hold on in 105-91 loss.
At least we easily covered our secondary play on Auburn +10 at Alabama. The Tigers actually led most of the game before the Crimson Tide rallied to force overtime. That usually dooms underdogs and Unders, but it was nice to be getting +10 as Alabama won 90-85.
Let’s recap the rest of Wednesday’s action in the major team sports and then look for more Best Bets for Thursday.
CBB: No. 2 Alabama rallied from a 17-point deficit to beat Auburn 90-85 in OT, but didn't cover as 10-point home favorite. No. 22 TCU beat Texas 75-73, but didn't cover as 3.5-point home fave. No. 19 Xavier upset No. 20 Providence 94-89 as 3.5-point road underdog.
NBA: Faves went 6-3 SU Wednesday, but dogs led 5-4 ATS as the Cavaliers (+5 at Celtics) and Pistons (+6.5 vs. Bulls) covered in SU losses. The upsets were by the 76ers (+3.5 at Heat), Lakers (+3 at Thunder) and Pelicans (+3 at Blazers). Road teams went 6-3 SU and ATS. Overs led 5-4.
More NBA: On the season, favorites lead 606-319 SU with 15 games closing pick-'em, but underdogs still lead 458-445-22 (50.7%). Home teams still lead 557-383 SU and 481-439-20 ATS (52.3%). In totals wagering, Overs improved slim lead to 466-460-14 (50.3%).
NHL: Faves/dogs split 3-3 Wednesday with upsets by the Golden Knights (+130 in 3-2 win vs. Hurricanes), Oilers (-105 in 5-2 win vs. Maple Leafs) and Devils (-103 in 7-5 win at Avalanche). Home/road teams split 3-3. Unders led 3-2-1 with the push in TOR-EDM with betting total of 7 goals.
NBA Best Bet
Spurs +4.5 vs. Pacers: We knew this play was coming on Tuesday night when the Spurs snapped their long 16-game losing streak against the Jazz. We usually consider a swagger (or anti-swagger play) when a team has a streak of 6 games, so we have to think that the Spurs built up a lot of swagger with that victory. And we also love that they’re still getting points at home against a below-average team in the Pacers. That should help our cause.
College basketball Best Bet
Lipscomb +4.5 at Kennesaw State: We won with Lipscomb on Tuesday night and hope for them to carry their momentum in the Atlantic Sun tourney. Kennesaw State is the No. 2 seed and a lot of people are picking it to win the conference’s automatic NCAA bid, but we believe Lipscomb is a dark horse. We know Kennesaw State won the previous meeting by 13 at home in late January, but Lipscomb is playing much better now (7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS since that loss) while Kennesaw State hasn’t been as dominant (6-2 SU in last 8 games, but just 3-5 ATS including a 67-66 non-covering win as 7.5-point chalk against Queens on Tuesday night), We also believe we have best player on the floor in Jacob Ogacevic (17.4 points a game and scored 20 in the last meeting) and like how the Bisons pound the ball into the paint and don’t need to rely on 3-pointers to pull the upset or at least keep this close.
NHL Best Bet
Kraken-Red Wings 1P Over 1.5 -145 / Maple Leafs-Flames 1P Over 1.5 -140 (parlay pays +190): The Canucks (the No. 1 1P Over team) and the Wild (the No. 1 1P Under team) face each other late Thursday night (10:07 p.m. ET/7:07 p.m. PT), so this is the best combo. The Kraken are the No. 5 1P Over team at 36-24 (60%) and Seattle-Detroit combine to hit at 71-51 (58.2%), but we feel even better in the 2nd game as the Flames are the No. 2 1P Over team at 40-20 (66.7%) while the Maple Leafs are on a 4-game 1P Over run and 34-26 overall for a combined 74-46 (61.7%).
XFL Week 3 Best Bet
San Antonio Brahmas +4 at Houston Roughnecks: I gave this out Sunday night/Monday morning and it’s up to +4.5 at BetMGM and Resorts World here in Vegas as well as DraftKIngs in other states, so followers might want to wait and shop around. Houston was middle-of-the-pack in preseason XFL futures but they were made the +350 favorite at Circa Sports after routing Orlando 33-12 in the season-opener and beating Arlington 23-14 on Sunday night. Meanwhile, San Antonio lost only 18-15 to preseason favorite St. Louis in the opener and then nearly beat Orlando (30-12) by as much as Houston did. Road teams are 5-3 ATS so far in the XFL, so I think Houston is being given too much for home-field advantage in a game that I feel should be closer to pick-’em, or at least under a field goal.