Tuley: Monday Best Bets in NBA, MLB and early XFL Week 10 picks; Sunday recaps

By
Dave Tuley
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Monday Best Bets, Sunday Recaps

Sunday was another action-packed sports betting day in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we had another four NBA Game 1s, 14 MLB games (with one postponement), plus two spring football leagues with the XFL and USFL seasons overlapping.
I started the day great as I won my plays on the Brewers First 5 +140 (actually bet it at +145) as they led the Padres 1-0 after 5 innings and also cashed for full-game ML bettors as well. I also won with the Seattle Sea Dragon-St. Louis Battlehawks Under 46 in the XFL as Seattle won 30-12.
The dogs were barking in the NBA as there were upsets in the first three games (see full recaps below), but somehow I landed on the one dog that failed to cover as I dropped my Best Bet on the Timberwolves +8 at the Nuggets in a 109-80 rout. I hate when that happens, but I’m glad overall to see dogs faring well though we also point out below that faves and dogs split 4-4 ATS in the Game 1s over the weekend.
Game 2s start on Monday, so we feel obligated to give our annual disclaimer on the zig-zag theory (aka “loser of the last” as the system says you should bet the SU loser against the spread in the next game). As I mentioned on my regular appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night (11:15 p.m. ET/8:15 p.m. PT, or 15 minutes into the archived version), I used to bet the zig-zag blindly when it was gold, but it’s dried up in recent years as oddsmakers and the betting public caught on to the trend.
Now, the zig-zag fared well last year in the NBA playoffs as those teams went a solid 50-37 ATS (57.5%). However, while I wasn’t able to find my full stats on Sunday night, I remember that in 2021 the zig-zag was hitting below 40% for most of the playoffs.
These days, I say we should consider it as just another factor when handicapping the games. It can also help project which direction a line might be moving so we can decide if we should bet ASAP after the openers come out or wait for a better number.

 

Top NBA Resources:

Spoiler alert: I’ll be picking the Nets +10 at the 76ers below in the Best Bets section for Monday as we’re counting on the Nets to at least stay within single digits after getting embarrassed 121-101 in Game 1 on Saturday. However, the other zig-zag play would be the Warriors -1 at the Kings after they lost Game 1 as a 1-point dog (see how the market has moved against the team that won the first game), but I’m passing due to my “dog-or-pass philosophy” (you make your own call).
Let’s get to our daily recaps of Sunday’s betting action in the major team sports and then give our Monday Best Bets that we also gave out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (let the bettor beware that my MLB play starts at 11:10 a.m. ET in Boston/8:10 a.m. PT here in Vegas. In addition, I also gave out two XFL underdogs for the weekend. Another note: I’m passing on Monday’s NHL first-round openers, but mentioned a First-Period Over parlay for Tuesday but I’ll wait to post that tomorrow.

Sunday Recaps

NBA: Nuggets (-8.5) routed Timberwolves 109-80 late Sunday to wrap up NBA first-round Game 1s (stayed Under betting total of 225 points), but dogs went 3-1 SU and ATS on the day with upsets by Lakers (+5 in 128-112 win at Grizzlies), Heat (+9 in 130-117 win at Bucks) and Clippers (+8 in 115-110 win at Suns).

More NBA: Road teams (all dogs) also went 3-1 SU and ATS on Sunday (after home faves went 3-1 SU & ATS on Saturday), so faves/dogs and home/road teams both went 4-4 SU and ATS in Game 1s. Over/Unders split 2-2 on Sunday, just like Saturday, so were also 4-4 in Game 1s.

MLB: Faves 8-6 went Sunday. The upsets were by the Cubs (+200 at Dodgers), Nationals (+198 vs. Guardians), Rangers (+190 at Astros), Brewers (+152 at Padres), Diamondbacks (+120 at Marlins), Orioles (+113 at White Sox). Road teams led 9-5. Unders were 7-6-1 with the push in Braves-Royals (9). On the season, faves lead 145-88 with 3 games closing pick-’em. Home teams’ slim lead dipped to 121-115. Overs still lead 125-100-11 (55.6%).

XFL: Seattle Sea Dragons upset St. Louis Battlehawks 30-12 as 3.5-point road underdogs to wrap up Week 9 (stayed Under betting total of 46.5 points). Earlier, DC Defenders beat Arlington Renegades, but didn’t cover as 10-point home faves (went Over 43).

More XFL: Faves went 3-1 SU in Week 9, but dogs led 2-1-1 ATS. Home teams went 3-1 SU but road teams led 2-1-1 ATS. Overs led 3-1. On the season, faves lead 25-10 SU and 17-16-1 ATS with 1 PK. Home teams lead 19-17 SU but road teams took an 18-16-2 ATS lead. Overs lead 18-17-1.

USFL: Faves/dogs and home/road split 1-1 SU and ATS Sunday (both finished 2-2 SU and ATS in Week 1) with the Michigan Panthers (+1) winning 29-13 at the Houston Gamblers (Over 39.5) and the New Orleans Breakers (-6) covering in 22-15 win vs. Pittsburgh Maulers (Under 37.5). Over/Unders also went 1-1 on Sunday and 2-2 in Week 1.

Monday NBA Best Bet

Nets +10 at 76ers: As mentioned above, the Nets were blown out in Game 1, but the zig-zag play is to take them with the points here. The 76ers were 8.5-point faves in Game 1, and we usually see oddsmakers set the line lower after a Game 1 blowout in anticipation of zig-zag money; however, this line is actually higher at 10, which gives us more value. In addition, the Nets were 1-0 SU and ATS as double-digit underdogs this season as they upset the Celtics 115-105 on March 3 when disrespected with this high of a spread (that was also following an embarrassing 142-118 loss at the Knicks if the Game 1 blowout concerns you). The Nets also covered as 9.5-point dogs in a 118-113 loss at the Bucks on March 9.

Monday MLB Best Bet

Red Sox First 5 Innings +145 vs. Angels: This 11:10 a.m. ET/8:10 a.m. PT start is due to Patriot Day, as the game is scheduled to end before the finish of the Boston Marathon. This Monday game actually concludes a four-game weekend series with the Red Sox winning the first three and going for the sweep. Some people bet against a sweep, so maybe we’ll get an even better price by gametime, especially with Shohei Ohtani pitching for the Angels. But we’ll take the Red Sox as they have the Angels’ number, plus the Angels are famously bad at giving Ohtani run support for some reason. We have no problem backing Brayan Bello making his first season start after a rehab assignment.

Giants First 5 Innings +110 at Marlins: Since we won our “unofficial” second MLB F5 play on Sunday on the Diamondbacks at the Padres, let’s add another play for Monday especially for those who miss the early game. Let’s take the Giants with Logan Webb getting an extra day of rest with Sunday’s postponement in Detroit as he faces a Miami lineup that scores the least in MLB at just 3.1 runs per game. The Giants’ offense has been inconsistent so far this season, but hopefully they also benefit from the extra time off.

XFL Week 10 Best Bets

Orlando Guardians +7 at St. Louis Battlehawks and Vegas Vipers +8 at Seattle Sea Dragons: We gave these plays on “The Greg Peterson Experience” as both are fades of the Battlehawks

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