Tuley: Friday Best Bets in NBA, MLB; Thursday recaps

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Dave Tuley
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Friday Best Bets, Thursday Recaps

Thursday was another weird feeling day in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we had a travel day in the NBA play-tournament, but it ended up being profitable as we focused on MLB and the NHL.
We won our Best Bet of the Day on the A’s +1.5 +115 at the Orioles and glad we made that call as our top play as the A’s lost 8-7 in the bottom of the 9th to still cover while we dropped a smaller bet on the full-game money line at +200 and pushed on our A’s First 5 Inning wager at +180.
Yes, regular readers, you read that right as we pushed our fourth – count ‘em, four! – F5 play in a row as the two teams were tied 7-7 through 5 innings and we’re now a crazy 2-2-6 with those plays on the season and still a negligible profit of 0.2 units. But, hey, it’s better than losing, and at least we came out ahead on the game.
In the NHL, we won our play on the Hurricanes +100 at the Panthers as they held on for a 6-4 victory. We did have some followers on Twitter point out that the Panthers weren’t locked into their playoff seeding and were trying to avoid the Bruins in the opening round. I should have just stuck with my original statement that it was an “anti-swagger play” against the Panthers, who just had a 6-game winning streak snapped on Monday. That was my main reason for fading them. I shouldn’t have tried to add to my breakdown with the Hurricanes needing the game more, especially since I’m usually the first to warn people not to put too much stock in teams in “must-win situations.” We also lost our NHL First-Period Over parlay with the Senators-Sabres going scoreless in the opening 20 minutes of their game (and then taunting me by scoring 5 combined goals in the second period) while the Canucks-Coyotes did come through in their leg with the Canucks leading the Coyotes 4-2 after the opening 20 minutes.
Let’s get to our daily (full-game) recaps of Thursday’s betting action and then turn our attention to Friday’s Best Bets in the NBA and MLB.

Thursday Recaps

MLB: Underdogs led 4-3 on Thursday, but the Rays (-245) beat Red Sox 9-3 to tie the modern record with their 13th straight win to start the season. The upsets were by the Pirates (+234 at Cardinals), Tigers (+210 at Blue Jays), Brewers (+140 at Padres) and Twins (+125 at Yankees). Road teams also led 4-3. Unders 4-3. Faves lead 119-71 on the season with 2 games closing pick-’em. Home teams dipped to 99-93. Overs dipped to 104-81-7 (56.2%).

NHL: Faves went 12-3 on Thursday. The only upsets were by the Blue Jackets (+200 in 3-2 OT win vs. Penguins), Maple Leafs (+115 in 3-2 win at Rangers) and Hurricanes (-105 in 6-4 win at Panthers). Road teams led 8-7. Overs 7-5-3 with the pushes in OTT-BUF (7), SJ-EDM (7) and WPG-COL (6).

NBA play-in tournament (ICYMI): Underdogs went 2-0 SU and ATS on Wednesday and are 3-1 SU and ATS the last 2 days (Lakers only fave to win SU but didn’t cover vs. TImberwolves); and all were road dogs, so same for road teams. Overs went 2-0 on Wednesday – ending 8-game Under streak in play-in games, including 2-0 on Tuesday and 6-0 last year – 2-2 on those 2 days.

Friday NBA Best Bets

Thunder +5.5 at Timberwolves: We cashed on the Timberwolves in the Western Conference’s No. 7 vs. No. 8 matchup of the NBA play-in tournament on Tuesday night when the whole world seemed to be on the Lakers and willing to fade the T-Wolves, but now we’re willing to fade them as they’re in the favorite’s role (plus they’re in a “mini-anti-swagger” spot after having their 3-game winning streak snapped). Besides, the Thunder were the No. 2 team for bettors this season at 47-34-1 ATS (58%) – second only to the 76ers at 48-34 (58.5%) – and technically tied now with the win in New Orleans on Wednesday. There’s no reason to think they’ve can’t take this to the wire as well with a great shot at the outright upset to steal the West’s No. 8 seed.

Bulls +5.5 at Heat: With the underdogs at 4-0 ATS in the play-in tourney, we might as well take the Bulls plus the points here as well. I almost made this my top play of the day as the Bulls won all three regular-season meetings against the Heat. While we understand the Heat being favored at home, we don’t feel they should be favored by this much, even if the Bulls don’t have their secret-weapon in the crowd (DeMar DeRozan’s screeching daughter). He originally said she would be going back to school after being permitted to go to the game in Toronto, but we’ll see.

Friday MLB Best Bets

Tigers First 5 Innings +115 vs. Giants: This is part of a “swagger spot” for the Tigers as they snapped a 6-game losing streak on Thursday in Toronto. I’m not too thrilled with counting on Detroit’s Joey Wentz (0-2, 10.29 ERA), but the Giants’ offense has been hit-or-miss so far this season and hopefully the Tigers can squeak out a win (or at least another push!).

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