Utah Jazz 2023-24 season preview and predictions

By
Jonathan Von Tobel
-
323
 

Utah Jazz season preview

This preview originally appeared in our 2023-24 VSiN NBA Betting Guide, which was released on Thursday, October 5. To become a VSiN Pro subscriber and get all of our NBA coverage throughout the season, click here.

 

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Jazz Betting Odds

NBA Finals: +25000
Conference: +13000
Division: +5000
Win Total: 35.5
Playoffs: Yes (+360)

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Team Analysis

Utah was a pleasant surprise last season when it got off to a 10-3 start and ultimately surpassed its win total before the All-Star break. As great as the story was though, there were signs that the Jazz were living on the edge, and the team ultimately finished with just 37 wins while looking like one of the lesser teams in the league while doing so.

The Jazz return essentially intact this season – outside of one key acquisition – which begs the question: Will bettors get the team that surprised the NBA, or the team that was 10-19 in its final 29 games with one of the worst net ratings over that span?

To answer that question we need to nail down what we know about Utah, and what we know is this team will be one of the worst defensive teams in the league.

Last season the Jazz gave up 117.2 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. Their perimeter defense was among the worst in the NBA. Opponents averaged 18.5 wide-open 3-point attempts – defender six feet or further away – per game against Utah. Their perimeter numbers could have been worse had their opponents not shot just 38.1% on those attempts – the 11th-best rate in the league – so there is certainly a possibility that this defense looks worse should it allow the same rate of opportunities from distance this season.

There is no reason to believe that will not be the case either. Utah lacks a true defensive option along the perimeter on this roster. Its projected starting lineup of Collin Sexton, Jordan Clarkson, Lauri Markkanen, John Collins and Walker Kessler has only one good defender: second-year center Kessler. The most used lineup combination of Sexton, Clarkson, Markkanen and Kessler averaged an incredible 123.4 points per 100 possessions but still had a -1.6 net rating due to a defense that gave up 125.0 points per 100 possessions on the other end. Collins has been a statistical positive on defense throughout his career, but he is hardly a game-changer on that end of the floor.

There is also a worry that Collins might not be a seamless fit on offense as well.

Utah’s offense is predicated on spacing and shooting. The Jazz might have finished 20th in 3-point percentage (35.8%), but that was a symptom of being a high-volume shooting team. They took the fifth-highest rate of 3-point attempts and made the seventh most shots from beyond the arc. Collins is going to play power forward for this team, but his shooting has been steadily declining each of the last three seasons, and it bottomed out at 29.2% last season. Should Collins continue to shoot at a subpar rate, it will greatly affect this team’s offense and spacing.

Still, Will Hardy has shown he can coordinate an efficient offense, which should be the case again this season.

Clarkson had a career year as a full-time starter under Hardy. He posted career-highs in scoring (20.8) and assists (4.4) while posting the best points per 100 shot attempts mark he’s had (113.4) since playing with LeBron James in Cleveland. Clarkson improved the Jazz’s offense rating by 4.7 points per 100 possessions and should be just as effective from a scoring standpoint this season.

Sexton took a step back when it came to scoring – he posted the lowest points per game mark of his career last season – but his efficiency in Hardy’s system took a big step forward. He hit career-highs in field goal percentage (50.6%), 3-point percentage (39.3%) and points per shot attempt (122.6).

The same is true of Markkanen, who won Most Improved Player while having a career season in which he set personal bests in usage rate (23.7%), points per game (25.6), assists per game (1.9), field goal percentage (49.9%), points per shot attempt (129.3) and efficiency differential (+10.8). 

However, what was something that thrust Utah past preseason expectations last season threatens to cause the team to fall below expectations this season. Can Clarkson, Sexton and Markkanen all repeat their career seasons? 

Those career years on offense were still not enough to overcome poor defense, and what will be constant is that lack of defensive prowess this season. Should they all regress – which is likely after such incredible seasons – this team will be hard-pressed to repeat a season in which they finished with the second-best cover rate in the league (58.2%).

Win Total Analysis

Utah blew past its win total last season with 37 wins in a season that saw its preseason win total close at 23.5 at most shops. This season’s win total is in line with the team that it was last season, but it is a candidate to regress back from where it finished, especially considering the career seasons it took to get to that win total last season. Now, there is a market expectation of improvement for this team, so not only will those players need to repeat those career seasons but they would likely need to improve as well.

The case for the Jazz to go over their win total begins with their schedule and homecourt. Utah has the second-easiest schedule in the league, according to Positive Residual. Part of that rating comes from having one of the strongest homecourts in the NBA. The Jazz went 23-18 SU at home last season, as opposed to 14-27 SU on the road. They have an even amount of games in which they have either a rest advantage or a disadvantage, but playing at altitude gives them an edge throughout the rigors of a regular season.

Still – even with the strong advantage at home – this is not a team worth backing to go over its win total. An assumed improvement from a team that got the most out of every key player is hard to invest in. Especially in a conference as deep as the Western Conference.

Win Total Recommendation: UNDER 35.5

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