New Orleans Pelicans 2023-24 season preview and predictions

By
Jonathan Von Tobel
-
90
 

New Orleans Pelicans season preview

This preview originally appeared in our 2023-24 VSiN NBA Betting Guide, which was released on Thursday, October 5. To become a VSiN Pro subscriber and get all of our NBA coverage throughout the season, click here.

 

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Pelicans Betting Odds

NBA Finals: +5000
Conference: +2500
Division: +255
Win Total: 43.5
Playoffs: Yes (-150)

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Team Analysis

If New Orleans is going to reach its true potential this season, then the team needs much better injury luck than it has had the last season-and-a-half. Unfortunately, the Pelicans’ bad luck with health has already started to rear its ugly head, and training camp has yet to begin.

Third-year guard Trey Murphy III was lost for 10-12 weeks after suffering a meniscus tear during a workout in September. Murphy played in 79 games and had career-highs in points (14.6), rebounds (3.6) and assists per game (1.4). He also shot 40.6% from deep overall, most of which came in the form of catch-and-shoot attempts on which he shot 40.7%. Murphy was a candidate to start this season, so his absence is huge.

Jose Alvarado was also lost to an injury in the offseason, although his ankle sprain is not expected to keep him from regular-season action. Alvarado has posted a positive efficiency differential in each of his first two seasons and has proven to be a plus-defender along the perimeter.

The status of both Murphy and Alvarado might not move the needle for bettors reading this guide, but their health is paramount for New Orleans to have success this season. Their injuries also represent an issue that has haunted this team for quite some time.

Last season when CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson were on the floor, the Pelicans outscored their opponents by 19.5 points per 100 possessions. Much of that success was driven by an elite offense that ranked in the 97th percentile in efficiency (123.7). However, those three played only 10 games together last season and 172 total minutes. Ingram played in only 45 games, and Williamson played in only 29 games before missing the rest of the season.

At one point, New Orleans was 18-8 and in control of the top seed in the Western Conference last season. When the team is healthy, they can be one of the best in their conference, but up to this point, there is no reason to believe the availability will be there.

Williamson has been the poster child for this team’s health issues. The former first-overall pick has played more than 29 games just once since getting drafted in 2019, but the talent is obvious when he is on the floor. In the three seasons in which he has played, he’s posted an efficiency differential no worse than +7.0 according to Cleaning The Glass. He’s ranked no lower than the 71st percentile at his position in points per shot attempt. 

It’s not breaking news that Williamson is good at basketball, but it would be breaking news if he played a majority of contests in the regular season. Therein lies the issues with the Pelicans this season. A wager on this team to succeed is a wager that Williamson and Ingram will be available.

Should those two actually play a majority of games, this team will be on par with many in the NBA. They will still have their flaws though, specifically on defense.

The Pelicans finished sixth in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (113.1), but they were insanely lucky throughout the season.

New Orleans allowed the sixth-highest frequency of 3-point attempts last season (37.8%), but opponents shot just 34.3% on those shots, the best rate in the league. One could argue that the Pelicans purposely allowed the lesser shooters to fire away, but a deeper look at the metrics paints a different picture. New Orleans allowed the third-highest frequency of wide-open 3-point attempts, but opponents shot just 36.1% on those looks, the second-lowest rate on uncontested looks by opponents. Should the Pelicans allow the same rate of wide-open looks their defense will surely regress to an average unit at best.

Should the defense regress but the availability improve New Orleans will be a candidate to be a team that plays to the over. Their defense should regress to league average, and the trio of Williamson, Ingram and McCollum tend to play fast. When that trio was on the floor their pace (101.70) would have been the fourth highest in the league, and they ranked in the 72nd percentile in offensive efficiency in transition (130.6).

Win Total Analysis

New Orleans does not have a particularly daunting schedule this season. Positive Residual has the Pelicans with the 14th hardest schedule in the NBA. They have a +2 net rest advantage, and they are among the 10 teams with only 13 back-to-backs. Nine of the games in which they have a rest advantage come at home as well, meaning they should be able to maximize those winnable opportunities.

Having said that, this team is much like the Los Angeles Clippers. Bettors who want to bet on this team to surpass its win total are betting that Zion Williamson will play a majority of contests this season. Unlike Los Angeles though, bettors are not buying at the bottom of the market. New Orleans had a preseason win total of 45.5 last season, so this current total does not offer much value when compared to last year.

Ultimately this leads to a look toward the under for the Pelicans. Williamson has not proven to be durable enough for bettors to count on his durability, and his counterpart, Brandon Ingram, has played 100 games in the last two seasons and no more than 61 contests in the last three. Factor in a defense that has signs of regression and it all equates to an expectation of fewer wins than the market has hung.

Win Total Recommendation: UNDER 43.5

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