Houston Rockets 2023-24 season preview and predictions

By
Jonathan Von Tobel
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183
 

Houston Rockets season preview

This preview originally appeared in our 2023-24 VSiN NBA Betting Guide, which was released on Thursday, October 5. To become a VSiN Pro subscriber and get all of our NBA coverage throughout the season, click here.

 

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Rockets Betting Odds

NBA Finals: +40000
Conference: +15000
Division: +4000
Win Total: 31.5
Playoffs: Yes (+600)

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Team Analysis

Houston went all in this offseason, and the goal is clear: compete for a spot in the postseason. The front office not only used free agency to acquire veterans for this team to jumpstart the current rebuild, but it also hired a no-nonsense coach with a good defensive background in Ime Udoka. There are many who have expressed skepticism about this plan in the long run for the Rockets, but for this season it could lead to results.

The biggest additions to this roster in free agency were Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks, and while they should help improve this team on both ends, it is the defense where these two can help the most. 

Houston was 29th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency last season (119.7) and 30th the season prior (117.8). The Rockets have not had a defender capable of taking on an opponent’s best perimeter option, and now they have that in Brooks. VanVleet is not a lockdown defender, but he is a savvy team defender who improved Toronto’s defensive rating each season but one in his time there. Add in the potential of Jabari Smith Jr. as the 3-and-D wing Houston drafted him to be, and this team suddenly looks competent on that end of the floor.

The offensive production will be the real challenge for this team.

Despite having a talented offensive player like Jalen Green, the Rockets finished 27th in non-garbage time offensive efficiency (111.0). Green himself declined in efficiency last season — averaged only 108.8 points per 100 shot attempts — and the team ranked 29th or lower in shooting from all three areas of the floor. Outside of Green, the current projected starting lineup isn’t rife with offensive talent.

VanVleet is a 37.3% career shooter who can play off of Green, but he isn’t a shot creator -– Toronto averaged 0.88 points per possession on 1.4 VanVleet isolations per game — and Brooks is an inconsistent chucker who is coming off a career-low in points per shot attempt (99.6). Smith is going to need to show some real improvements as a shooter this season — he shot just 30.5% from deep — for this team to show some growth on offense. Do not forget that Udoka was not the most adept offensive coach in his time in Boston either.

This team’s ceiling will be determined by its depth, but the issue with that is that the depth is extremely unproven.

Tari Eason ranked in the 84th percentile at his position in efficiency differential (+5.8), but he is only a second-year player. Jock Landale comes in from Phoenix after a career year, but his rookie season in San Antonio was much less productive, and he doesn’t have Devin Booker or Kevin Durant opening the floor for him. Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore are both extremely talented, but they are rookies. Kevin Porter Jr. is also on the way out due to his continued history of being a terrible human being. 

So while we can make the case that this team will be better on defense, the jury is still out on whether or not this team will be able to field an adequate offense. There could be concerns about the availability of its young players as well. Thompson already dealt with an ankle injury that threw doubt over his availability for training camp, and medical concerns caused Whitmore to fall in the draft.

Speaking of Whitmore, he is one of the few award candidates on this roster. His odds to win Rookie of the Year went from 100-1 to 20-1 after a dominant Summer League showing in which he averaged 20.4 points, 5.6 rebounds and 3.0 steals to win MVP. Green is the other award contender on this team. As a third-year player on a team now filled with veterans it wouldn’t be surprising to see his efficiency spike, and should that be the case he fits the parameters for Most Improved Player, for which he is 45-1 to win it at DraftKings.

Houston has covered just 40.2% of its games over the last two seasons, and judging by the market, this team will be at the bottom of the market’s power ratings to start the season as well. It presents an opportunity for bettors who believe this experiment will work though. Should the Rockets prove to be an adequate NBA team due to this infusion of veteran talent and leadership, they will make a great ATS play to begin the season.

Win Total Analysis

The schedule will be one of the biggest obstacles in the path of the Rockets surpassing their win total this season. Positive Residual gives them the second-hardest strength of schedule in the league (0.526), ahead of only San Antonio. Houston has one of the worst net rest advantages in the NBA (-5) and 10 games this season at which they are at a true rest disadvantage. Factor this in with their division that has three teams that are much better than them and another, San Antonio, which is similarly rated, and that comes out to a daunting slate.

They do get the advantage of playing three games against Memphis before Ja Morant’s return from suspension, and nine of their first 14 games are at home which can give this team a chance to establish a rhythm and practice before the brunt of their schedule begins. With a coach like Udoka and a veteran core, that is a big advantage.

Despite the rigors of the schedule, this team feels like a candidate to go over its win total. Their offseason actions dictate that this is a team that will try to win every game possible and not eventually fold down the stretch in favor of draft compensation. The veterans they signed raise the floor of their production, and they should be a decent defensive team, at least by comparison to previous iterations of this roster. It’s not going to be a fun win total to track, but over is the way to go.

Win Total Recommendation: OVER 31.5

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