Atlanta Hawks season preview
This preview originally appeared in our 2023-24 VSiN NBA Betting Guide, which was released on Thursday, October 5. To become a VSiN Pro subscriber and get all of our NBA coverage throughout the season, click here.
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Hawks Betting Odds
NBA Finals: +7500
Conference: +2500
Division: +210
Win Total: 42.5
Playoffs: Yes (-230)
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Team Analysis
The Hawks fired Nate McMIllan last season and made the rare decision to hire outside the building in the middle of the year. But it’s not often that a coach as good as Quin Snyder is available, so it made a lot of sense for Atlanta to pounce while he didn’t have other options. And what Snyder was able to do in such a short time with the Hawks was very impressive.
Atlanta had an offensive rating of 114.0 before Snyder was officially brought in on February 26, 2023. That was good for the 14th-ranked offense in the NBA. But the team’s offensive rating was up at 119.5 under Snyder, which was the fourth-highest mark in the league in that span. And if that was extrapolated over the course of the entire season, the Hawks would have had the highest offensive rating in the league.
With more time for Snyder to drill in some of his motion principles, Atlanta should once again be one of the best offensive teams in the league. Losing John Collins might seem like a blow on that end of the floor, but the fit was just getting stale. Atlanta now has some more lineup flexibility, and things won’t be as clogged as they were when Collins was playing next to Clint Capela. A team with Trae Young and Dejounte Murray in the backcourt simply can’t play with two traditional bigs on the floor at once. “Traditional” might not be a fair way to categorize Collins, but his three-ball abandoned him last season (29.2%). The Hawks will benefit from having either a floor spacer or a better defender in his place. And they’ll have it with more minutes opened up for Saddiq Bey, Onyeka Okongwu and Jalen Johnson. All three played big roles for Atlanta late in the year, and the latter two have the potential to be big-time players in the future.
Speaking of Young and Murray, Snyder will need to figure out a way to get more out of that duo. The production wasn’t quite there when those two shared the floor last year. At this point in his career, Young is a lot more comfortable playing on the ball, but Murray was brought in to take pressure off the two-time All-Star. Young responded with an abysmal year as far as shooting percentages go. So, it’ll be interesting to see what Snyder is able to do with the pairing. But I think he’ll figure it out. His time in Utah makes it hard to doubt him.
Atlanta will need somebody else to make a year-over-year leap in order for the team to do any damage in the Eastern Conference, though. This team can obviously be counted on to make the playoffs, but is there more to the Hawks in 2023-24? That’ll be determined by how much players like Johnson and AJ Griffin improve. It feels like Griffin has it in him to make a massive second-year leap, if he can stay healthy. He’s an absolute sniper from deep, plus he has a little more than that to his offensive game.
It also wouldn’t be all that surprising if Kobe Bufkin contributes a bit right off the bat. He can play on and off the ball, which will make him and Bogdan Bogdanovic a lethal combination off the bench. Atlanta actually had one of the more productive second units in basketball once Snyder became the team’s head coach. That should be a strength again this season. And that’s something to consider when betting the team’s regular season win total. Having a strong bench is crucial during the regular season.
Another thing that must happen for Atlanta is that the team needs to make some sort of improvement on the defensive end. Young will never be a good defender at the point guard spot, but Snyder can at least get him to put a little more effort in. And Murray was once a plus defender in San Antonio, but he was a turnstile in Atlanta. Can the Hawks make him respectable again? That would be huge for the team, as it’s really the perimeter defense that needs to be better. Atlanta has a decent amount of flexibility in the frontcourt, especially with Collins now out the door.
Win Total Analysis
This number feels way too low heading into the year. The Hawks only won 41 games last season, but the team should be a lot better with Snyder having had a full offseason to work with his roster. Atlanta won 43 games two seasons ago and the team would have easily won at least 43 games in the shortened 2020-21 season (the Hawks were 41-31 in 72 games). With that in mind, I don’t see much preventing Atlanta from winning at least 43 games this year. Heading into last season, a lot of people tabbed the Hawks as a sleeper in the Eastern Conference. They never ended up living up to those expectations, but what if we were just a year early on them?
I wouldn’t be surprised if Collins ends up playing well in Utah, as he’s a player I do like quite a bit. But I do think he wore out his welcome in Atlanta and the team will likely be better off without him. The Hawks are also a team that should take the regular season seriously. It’s hard not to when you’re playing for a coach like Snyder, especially in a year in which he’ll really be trying to get through to his players. The same can’t be said for a lot of other teams. That on its own is a good reason to play the Over on their win total. The Hawks are going to compete on nights when opponents will be taking it easy.
Let’s not forget that the Hawks were rather impressive in the postseason last year. Atlanta actually earned a 116-105 win over the Miami Heat in the Play-In Tournament, which had Erik Spoelstra’s team one loss away from elimination. So, that Cinderella run for Miami was close to not happening, with Atlanta being one of the reasons. The Hawks then won two games in their series against a good Boston Celtics team, which leads me to believe that Snyder’s group isn’t far away from being one of the teams that competes in the East.
Win Total Recommendation: OVER 42.5
