NBA Playoffs Best Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Sunday, April 30th

April 30, 2023

Best Bets for Sunday’s NBA Playoff Games

We’re all over the place in this year’s NBA Playoffs, as it’s Game 7 in one first-round series and other second-round series are already underway. But we’re looking forward to everything that’s on the schedule for Sunday, April 30th. Make sure you keep reading for our NBA best bets for the day, and continue to stop back in for VSiN’s coverage of the NBA Playoffs. You can find everything you’ll possibly need in our NBA Playoffs Hub. We’ll hopefully have at least one pick for you on every game the rest of the way, and that includes two plays for you today.

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MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on April 30

Here are our favorite NBA bets for Sunday, April 30th (odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook):

Miami Heat at New York Knicks (-4.5, 207.5) – Game 1

It was impressive that the Heat were able to eliminate the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks, especially with Tyler Herro on the shelf. But it really felt like Milwaukee gave that series away, and now we’re stuck with a relatively lousy Miami squad in the second round. This matchup should be one that the Knicks feel good about, even with Julius Randle’s ankle nowhere close to 100% health. And New York should feel even better about its chances of comfortably handling its business at home here.

The Knicks are just a much better offensive team than the Heat this season, and that’s only going to stand out more with Miami missing Herro — and to a lesser extent Victor Oladipo. Jimmy Butler looked like Superman against Milwaukee last round, but somebody is going to need to step up and help him offensively. It’s unlikely that will be center Bam Adebayo, who will have his work cut out for him in a matchup with Mitchell Robinson. And shooters like Max Strus, Duncan Robinson and Gabe Vincent will likely be far less effective at Madison Square Garden.

The Knicks have also been great when playing with extended rest this season. New York is 9-1 against the spread when playing five or fewer games in 14 days on the year. The Knicks have won those games by an average of 9.6 points per game.

Bet: Knicks -4.5 (-115)

UPDATE: Julius Randle is now expected to miss Game 1 for the Knicks. I still like New York to win and cover here. So, don’t be afraid to grab the -3.5.

Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings (-1, 228.5) – Game 7

The Warriors were my pick before the series and I’m not going to go away from them in Game 7. Of course, Golden State let an amazing opportunity slip away in a home Game 6, but the Warriors were uncharacteristically awful offensively in that game. Golden State shot just 10 of 32 from three and 25 for 35 from the charity stripe, and the Warriors also turned the ball over 19 times. On top of that, Golden State let Sacramento get whatever it wanted at the rim on the other end of the floor. The Warriors aren’t likely to play that poorly again, even in a tough road environment.

The Kings have already proven themselves to be legit this series. They have gone toe to toe with the defending champions, and they’re absolutely capable of beating the Los Angeles Lakers next round. However, it’s still hard to see Sacramento finding a way to knock out Golden State in Game 7. This Warriors team is just a lot more experienced than the Kings, so they should be able to come out and punch the home team in the mouth. If they do, will Sacramento be able to respond? The Kings have one of the most energetic fanbases in the world, but that can quickly turn into nervous energy. We saw it last year when the Phoenix Suns got run out of the gym by the Dallas Mavericks at the Footprint Center.

Bet: Warriors +1 (-110)