Best Bets on Today's NBA Player Props Market
If you're looking for some plays for the Tuesday, March 21st NBA slate, we have you covered in every way possible. As always, we'll have best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, spreads and totals. However, we're tackling player props here, and we're targeting Markelle Fultz, Herbert Jones and Marcus Smart tonight. Keep reading to find out how we're betting on each of them.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 21
Here are our favorite NBA prop bets for Tuesday, March 21 (odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook):
Markelle Fultz isn’t a player that launches a lot of 3s, but he has made one in back-to-back games coming into this one. Fultz has also attempted at least two 3s in 11 of his last 18 games, so he’s not turning down that shot as often as he used to. And Fultz attempted at least three 3s in two of those 11 games.
Tonight, we’re hoping that the guard can hit just one 3 against a Wizards team that hasn’t been defending all that well this season. Washington is just 20th in the league in defensive rating on the year, and this is a team that has tried to force Fultz into taking outside shots this season. In two meetings with the Wizards this season, Fultz is 4 for 9 from 3. He took five triples in their first meeting, and he launched four 3s in their most recent matchup.
If Fultz is that aggressive as a shooter in this specific matchup, it seems irresponsible not to take him to hit just one outside shot at plus-money odds. There’s some risk in backing a non-shooter to hit a 3, but we’d be kicking ourselves if we don’t after how he has played against this team this year.
Bet: Fultz Over 0.5 Made 3s (+145)
We don’t often take defensive props in this column, but it’s hard not to play Jones to come away with at least two steals in this meeting with the Spurs. San Antonio is resting all of its best players tonight, which will mean bigger opportunities for young players like Malaki Branham and Blake Wesley. And while both guys have looked good this season, younger players are more prone to turnovers. And a player with Jones’ defensive ability should be able to make them pay.
Opponents are averaging 8.4 steals per game against the Spurs this season, and that’s the second-highest mark in basketball. That’s not surprising considering San Antonio is coughing up the third-most turnovers per game in the NBA this year. With this being a team that is careless with the basketball, it just seems like a smart play to back an elite defender to get his hands on the ball here.
Jones is coming into this game after having had at least two steals in three of his last four games. And he’s averaging 1.9 steals per game in the month of March. Jones also happened to have two steals the last time he faced this Spurs team.
Bet: Jones Over 1.5 Steals (-125)
This season, the Kings are allowing more assists per game than any other team in basketball. A lot of that has to do with the fact that Sacramento is just 25th in the league in defensive rating, despite being one of the best teams in the Western Conference. The Kings are also a top-10 team in the league when it comes to pace, so they play up-tempo games and give opposing players the ability to put up big numbers.
With this being a defense that can be easy for opponents to pick apart, we’re rolling with Marcus Smart to hit the over on his 4.5-assist total. Smart has slowed down significantly when it comes to dropping dimes, as he was regularly racking up numbers in that column of the stat sheet early in the season. But the 29-year-old is still averaging 6.4 assists per game this season, and he has had at least five assists in three of his last four games.
According to our Daily Prop Analyzer, Smart has also gone over the 4.5-assist mark in 39 of the 54 games he has started this season. With that said, it’s hard to see him not doing it in a game with a total this high. The Kings are also going to be tired with this being their fourth game in five days. So, Boston will likely be active cutting to the basket, and Smart should be able to set his teammates up for easy buckets.
We should also note that while Smart is averaging only 6.4 assists per game this year, the guard is averaging 11.0 potential assists per game. That means he consistently gets his teammates the ball in scoring positions, and we think they’ll come through for him tonight.
Bet: Smart Over 4.5 Assists (-155)
Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +625 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!
VSiN NBA Links
Jonathan Von Tobel's NBA Best Bets for Tuesday, March 21
NBA Betting Splits
NBA Injury Report
NBA Team Power Ratings
Hardwood Handicappers Podcast