NBA: Model projections for Friday, November 17th

November 17, 2023 03:22 PM

NBA model projections for Friday, November 17th

Welcome back to another week of Jon Von Model projections in the NBA. Last Friday we unveiled a different way to track the model’s projections, but this week we’re going to add to the way we track the model.

As part of the daily NBA articles I will include the model projections, and on Fridays we will do a weekly recap of the results. The daily use of the model will give us a larger sample size of data at a much quicker pace than doing it once a week, so that adjustments can be made sooner rather than later.

Last week the nine projections from Jon Von Model went 3-5-1 against the market. It’s nothing to write home about, but not a sample size worth taking away anything of substance from. This week, we have some tight projections with the betting market, so it will be interesting to see how the projections fare today.

Friday, November 17th Projections

Milwaukee Bucks (-6, 234.5) at Charlotte Hornets

Jon Von Model Projection: Bucks by 12.1 points (3.1)

New York Knicks (-6.5, 227.5) at Washington Wizards

Jon Von Model Projection: Knicks by 4.1 points (2.9)

Philadelphia 76ers (-1, 233.5) at Atlanta Hawks

Jon Von Model Projection: 76ers by 0.2 points (-)

Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers (-10.5, 224.5)

Jon Von Model Projection: Cavaliers by 13.4 points (4.4)

Boston Celtics (-4.5, 219.5) at Toronto Raptors

Jon Von Model Projection: Celtics by 9.5 points (0.5)

Sacramento Kings (-5, 230.5) at San Antonio Spurs

Jon Von Model Projections: Kings by 7.8 points (0.7)

Orlando Magic at Chicago Bulls (-2, 218.5)

Jon Von Model Projection: Bulls by 5.3 points (2.8)

Denver Nuggets (-3.5, 220.5) at New Orleans Pelicans

Jon Von Model Projection: Nuggets by 0.3 points (5.2)

Phoenix Suns (-4.5, 235.5) at Utah Jazz

Jon Von Model Projection: Suns by 7.0 points (1.5)

Los Angeles Lakers (-6.5, 221.5) at Portland Trail Blazers

Jon Von Model Projection: Lakers by 10.0 points (1.0)

Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Clippers (-4, 222.5)

Jon Von Model Projection: Clippers by 16.5 points (9.0)

The largest edge for tonight according to the model would be the Los Angeles Clippers. It’s an edge that makes sense. This model is based on Box Plus-Minus, and the key players for Los Angeles – James Harden, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard – all rate very strongly in BPM. That is converted to a per minute statistic in this model, so the Clippers come out as a highly rated team while the Rockets do not.

Cleveland comes out with the next largest edge according to the model, but that is with both Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell playing. According to JVM, Mitchell is worth about 4.2 points to the spread and Garland is worth 1.5 points, so if you believe in those projections use them accordingly if neither plays this evening.

Other than those two there is not an edge of more than 3.1 points on the board tonight. That is a positive sign for the model, as most of the contests are within a possession of the market as it stands right now. However, only time will tell if these edges actually give us something worth betting on. We do not want a model that can accurately make numbers, we want one that will be profitable to bet on.

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