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Market Report for Friday, November 4th
* Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers
Best Bets
Record: 12-12 | Units: -0.54 | ROI: -2.38%​
Toronto Raptors at Dallas Mavericks (-4, 217)
Toronto has been playing some incredible basketball. The team is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five games and it decimated Atlanta and San Antonio by a combined 73 points over the last two games, both without Fred VanVleet who has been sidelined with a back injury. VanVleet is questionable once again tonight, but even if he does not give it a go this Raptors team will be live. They have multiple defensive options for Luka Doncic who will not be able to hunt for mismatches as he is wont to do, and their rebounding should be tremendous here. Toronto has grabbed 51.9% of available rebounds this season, the fourth best rate in the league, and their 77.1% defensive rebounding rate leads the NBA. Those will play well against the Mavericks which are 15th in overall rebounding and 21st in offensive rebounding. Toronto should be able to run as it wants as well, as their league leading transition offense (+10.1 points added per 100 possessions, 1.523 points per play) gets to face the 24th ranked transition defense tonight.
Play: Raptors (+4)
*Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans (-4, 231.5)
What in the world has happened to the Golden State Warriors? Golden State held a 16-point lead over Orlando last night with 8:37 left in the third quarter but ended up blowing it and fell 130-129 for its fourth straight loss. The Warriors are now 0-5 SU and ATS on the road this season, and the second worst cover team in the league (2-7 ATS). Their defense has allowed 116.3 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, opponents are making 26.6 free throws per 100 possessions (29th opponent free throw rate) and when Steph Curry leaves the floor, they have a -20.6 net rating. It is too early to panic about their championship hopes, but all those factors combined with the return of Brandon Ingram and Herb Jones have the market salivating. New Orleans is as high as -5.5 at a few shops right now, and as much as I understand wanting to play against the Warriors here this seems like an overreaction if Golden State does not rest anyone tonight. Homecourt has come around and the median result is up to +3.0 for home teams, so if the market is using that for homecourt this line tells us the Pelicans are 2.5 points better than the Warriors. That is a tough pill to swallow for me. There is a chance Steve Kerr rests some guys tonight, but I will take a chance he does not given the losing streak and take a piece of this inflated number.
Play: Warriors (+4.5)
Los Angeles Clippers (-3.5, 223.5) at San Antonio Spurs
This is a play on the number here. Los Angeles has not been playing incredible basketball, but they won and covered against Houston on the road Wednesday while looking somewhat better on offense with 1.124 points per possession. The market has clearly adjusted its rating on this team and opening -3.5 here is an overcorrection. The Spurs strength has been their shooting (39.1% overall, 50.0% on corner attempts) and the Clippers come into this game with not only one of the best defenses in the league (107.7 points per 100 possessions allowed) but one the best perimeter defenses (32.7% allowed overall, 34.8% on corner attempts). Couple that with San Antonio’s defense which has allowed 117.2 points per 100 possessions and struggled in transition and it comes together as a buy-low spot on Los Angeles.
Play: Clippers (-4)
Best Bet Recap
Clippers (-4)
Raptors (+4)
Warriors (+4.5)
Best Games
New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers (-2.5, 220.5)
James Harden is out for a month with a foot injury which is obviously a massive blow for Philadelphia, but that is compounded by Joel Embiid’s conditioning issues. Embiid is questionable to play due to an illness he has been dealing with, so this could be the Tyrese Maxey show tonight and it very well could be still if Embiid plays. The betting market is likely going to sit on this number until there is clarification on Embiid’s status for tonight, but do not be surprised if this closes closer to PK given how lopsided this matchup is when it comes to the reserves. New York enters this contest fourth in bench scoring at 43.1 points per game compared to 23.0 per game for Philadelphia, which is the worst bench scoring unit in the league. Having said that, the Knickerbockers must figure out what is going with its defense. New York is 1-3 SU/0-4 ATS in its last four games, and opponents have averaged 116.1 points per 100 possessions. Once again Tom Thibodeau’s most used lineup is one of his worst (-8.8 net rating) and Evan Fournier has been absolute nightmare. Those factors have me off this game but will be looking for an in-game opportunity tonight to back New York.
Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics (-8, 221)
The betting market has moved off the opening number here, and we’re down to as low as Boston -7 at few shops as of this morning, and I cannot blame anyone for coming in against the Celtics. The defensive issues for Boston have persisted, as they have allowed 113.3 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time this season, a rating which is 18th in the league. When these two played on Oct. 24 Chicago put up 1.191 points per possession in a 120-102 win, so the path the market taking here makes some sense. I wanted to point out an angle that my co-host on Hardwood Handicappers, Kelley Bydlon, pointed out to me. Boston’s defense has struggled because of Robert Williams’ absence, but it has also led to extremely subpar rebounding numbers. They rank 20th in overall rebounding rate (49.2%) and 29th in offensive rebounding rate (23.3%). In that previous matchup between these two Nikola Vucevic had 23 rebounds, and Jarrett Allen the other night had 14 in their win. At DraftKings Vucevic’s rebounding total is 11.5 with -115 on both sides and it’s an interesting angle to track tonight.
The Others
Milwaukee Bucks (-2.5, 226) at Minnesota Timberwolves
Rudy Gobert and Anthony Edwards are questionable to play tonight but should both become available I will be looking to get a decent number on Minnesota in-game. The Timberwolves’ have been off to a rocky start (4-4 SU/3-5 ATS) but their defense is legitimately good. They’ve allowed just 108.6 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, 89.2 per 100 plays in the halfcourt. This could be a good buy-low opportunity as a home underdog against the Bucks who have been extremely reliant on Giannis Antetokounmpo for offense.
Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns (-11, 221)
Deandre Ayton will return tonight and Torrey Craig will play as well, but this line is down to Phoenix -10.5 at most shops this morning. Portland was very sloppy in its loss to Memphis the other night, turning it over on 19.8% of its possessions while averaging just 1.04 points per possession. Against some lesser defensive teams, the Trail Blazers will be competitive without Damian Lillard as long as Anfernee Simons is on the floor. That leads us to the problem with Portland tonight, as Phoenix is not a lesser defensive team and Simons is questionable.
Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Lakers (-2, 228)
The betting market is in on Los Angeles here and they are now -3 consensus despite the questionable designation for Anthony Davis today. If the Lakers are going to deliver on the market’s expectations tonight it must do so with its rebounding. Utah ranks fourth in offensive rebounding rate (31.5%) and second in putback plays generated per 100 missed attempts. If Los Angeles, which ranks seventh in defensive rebounding, can limit the second chance opportunities they should be successful tonight.
Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards (-1, 230.5)
Kyrie Irving is suspended, Ben Simmons is out and Seth Curry is questionable. Washington is now -3 after a wild overnight market that saw Brooklyn -2 at one shop. The situation, and defense, around Brooklyn is toxic at this point it is impossible to make a case for them right now. Having said that, Kevin Durant has been so good despite all the noise – 32.5 points, 5.6 rebounds, 4.4 assists on 52.8% shooting – that he could singlehandedly lead the Nets to a win against a Washington defense with no matchup for him that is allowing 113.7 points per 100 possessions.
Miami Heat (-5, 229) at Indiana Pacers
Jimmy Butler is out and Bam Adebayo is questionable to play tonight, and as a result this number is down to -3.5 at most shops. Without Butler on the floor Miami is -2.5 per 100 possessions with an offensive rating of 103.9 which is extremely poor. Even against a terrible defensive team like Indiana I have zero interest in a game like this.
Cleveland Cavaliers (-7, 227) at Detroit Pistons
Both Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell are questionable to play tonight, as is Raul Neto. Why would you get involved with a game like this preflop with no idea what the status of the two best scorers is? In-game only option for this game tonight.
Charlotte Hornets at Memphis Grizzlies (-11, 231.5)
Lamelo Ball is still out, Gordon Hayward is out and both Cody Martin and Terry Rozier are doubtful to play. No surprise that the betting market is up to 11.5 here, but do you trust the 27th ranked Memphis Grizzlies defense (118.0 points per 100 possessions allowed) to hold onto a double-digit lead?