Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!
All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page
Market Report for Wednesday, November 23rd
*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers
Record: 16-25 | Units: -9.40 | ROI: -24.03%
Minnesota Timberwolves (-2, 235) at Indiana Pacers
Minnesota is navigating through a softer portion of its schedule, and the team has taken advantage. The Timberwolves have won four straight, and they are showing signs of improvement. They have held their last three opponents to 102.6 points per 100 possessions, and Anthony Edwards has started to find his place in this offense with 27.3 points per game over his last three outings. Offensively, the Timberwolves have taken the sixth-most shots within four feet of the basket, and they are third in rim shooting this season (69.3%). Indiana happens to allow the sixth highest rate of shots at the rim defensively. The Pacers also generate much of their offense through transition offense. They rank ninth in offensive efficiency off live rebounds (125.1), but they meet a Timberwolves team that is sixth in transition defense off live rebounds (108.3). Personally, I have been looking to play against Indiana, as I believe they are at a market at this point with its rating. With this line as short as it is, and the matchups that I believe work in the favor of Minnesota, I will take my shot once more.
Play: Timberwolves (-1.5)
Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors (-6, 222)
Just when Los Angeles was rounding into form the injury bug bit the franchise hard once more. Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are both out tonight due to injury, and as result Golden State is now a -9 consensus favorite on the board. The Warriors have played much better at home than on the road this season, and they enter this contest 7-1 SU/5-3 ATS with a +13.1 net rating in San Francisco. Having said that, this is a Clippers team which is used to playing without George and Leonard on the floor. Their defense allows just 107.3 points per 100 possessions when neither is playing, and their halfcourt defense in those situations places in the 97th percentile at 85.0 points allowed per 100 plays. It might not be the death knell that the market believes it to be that those two are not playing tonight. Interestingly enough, this total has moved up to 223.5 at some shops despite the absences of George and Leonard. Los Angeles’ offense only puts up 99.2 points per 100 possessions without those two on the floor. Add that to the potential of this defense and it would lead me to an Under play.
Play: Under 223.5
Best Bet Recap
Clippers/Warriors UN 223.5
Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics (-7, 218)
Jayson Tatum is questionable with an ankle sprain, and that is reason enough to stay away from this game tonight. Not that the Celtics would not be able to overcome his absence - In the possessions without Tatum on the floor the Celtics are +6.3 per 100 possessions - but only because of how the market would react to his absence. One could make the argument that Dallas is in worse shape if Spencer Dinwiddie, who is also questionable, does not play tonight as opposed to Boston without Tatum. When Luka Doncic is on the floor without Dinwiddie the Mavericks outscore opponents by 20.5 points per 100 possessions, but Dallas has played less than 40 possessions with neither of them on the floor. This is a team that is -2.4 points per 100 possessions when Dinwiddie is on the floor without Doncic, so what are they going to do tonight when Doncic is on the bench? Tatum’s questionable status has dropped this line to -4.5 but track Dinwiddie’s status as well because that could be the more impactful absence of the two.
Washington Wizards at Miami Heat (-1.5, 211.5)
This one is easy to scratch off the list of games to consider wagering on preflop. Jimmy Butler is still out, and four other key role players - Bam Adebayo, Dewayne Dedmon, Tyler Herro, Max Strus and Gabe Vincent - are questionable to play. On the other side, Bradley Beal, Monte Morris and Rui Hachimura are all in question as well. Adebayo did play on Monday against Minnesota, but the fact that he has popped back up on the report does not instill confidence in the thought of him playing a second consecutive game. The side is up to Heat -2.5 and the total has dipped to 210.5 consensus, but both are fluid given the amount of players who could or could not play tonight.
*Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors (-2, 222)
Brooklyn’s defense failed in a 115-106 loss to the short-handed Philadelphia 76ers last night, but the Nets might get a chance at redemption tonight when they face the Raptors who have plenty of names on their injury report. Dalano Banton and Scottie Barnes are questionable, and Pascal Siakam, Precious Achiuwa and Otto Porter Jr. are still out with various ailments. Having said that, Brooklyn is playing on the second leg of a back-to-back and is a prime candidate to rest any of its key role players. Neither the side or total has moved more than a half-point this morning, so it would be beneficial to wait for the Nets to release their own report before acting here. One interesting trend to follow: Toronto has emerged as a strong homecourt this season. The Raptors are 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS at home with a +7.5 net rating while covering by an average of 2.9 points per game.