Welcome to the daily NBA best bets page, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!
All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page
*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers
Record: 18-27 | Units: -9.58 | ROI: -22.22%
Golden State has won four of five games and dropped 253 points on its last two opponents, but outside of a win at Houston - in which the team did not cover - this success has come at home. The Warriors are still 1-9 SU and ATS on the road this season with a -11.0 net rating in non-garbage time while failing to cover by 12.8 points per game. Fading this team on the road might seem like the strategy, but this might actually be the time to catch them at a somewhat decent price.
First, the matchup works in favor of Golden State. The Warriors work from the perimeter and want to shoot. They lead the league in 3-point attempt frequency (44.5%) while shooting at the fifth-best clip from beyond the arc (39.1%). The Timberwolves tend to allow 3-point attempts, with opponents taking 37.9% of their attempts from beyond the arc and they shoot 37.1% on those shots, the eighth highest defensive rate in the league. They also allow 20.9 wide-open 3-point attempts per game which is something Golden State can punish them for. And while the Warriors defense has not been at its usual level they still force turnovers on 15.1% of opponent possessions which is something the Timberwolves have struggled with. They cough up the ball on 16.1% of their own possessions and allow 1.414 points per play off steals.
In Minnesota’s last two games I bet them with the thought process that the team was getting comfortable enough to take advantage of lesser opponents. This is not a lesser opponent today. Golden State is starting to figure out its bench rotations, Steph Curry is playing an incredible level of basketball and averaging 32.4 points on 55.6% shooting from the floor in his last nine games. The Warriors can go small and force a big team like the Timberwolves into less than ideal matchups along the perimeter as well. It is a matchup that works well for Golden State and I will back them tonight because of it.
Play: Warriors (-1.5)
Best Bet Recap
The Ben Simmons points, rebounds and assists props continue to cash, but the Brooklyn Nets do not. Brooklyn’s defense fell apart in the fourth quarter on Friday night, allowing Indiana to put up 1.538 points per possession and 40 points overall in a 128-117 loss. Their effort on that end of the floor has been inconsistent to say the least, and it would be hard to lay such a number preflop but the market has this at -7 consensus. Portland is on the last of a four-game road trip on the east coast, but it has performed admirably without Damian Lillard in averaging 120.0 points per 100 possessions during his latest absence. It would not be a shock to see the Trail Blazers take advantage of this Nets defense, and it is why the market is up to 223.5 on this total.
Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are still out, and the last two games for Los Angeles have gone sideways because of it. The Clippers were blown out by the Warriors on Wednesday night, then gave up 1.281 points per possession in non-garbage time to the Nuggets in a game that was not as competitive as even the final score indicates. In the two games since losing George and Leonard they have allowed 238 points combined and 1.221 points per possession, so it would make sense to view this contest against the league’s 10th ranked offense as a mismatch. Having said that, Indiana does struggle to defend in transition - It ranks 20th and allows 128.4 points per 100 transition plays - and Los Angeles owns the third best transition offense in the league (1.352). There is also the number here, which would say this version of the Clippers is four points worse than the Pacers on a neutral. Is it? There’s been no budge on the side but we have seen a slight dip in the total to 221.5 consensus.
It is nearly impossible to keep up with the injury noise surrounding Miami recently. Jimmy Butler remains sidelined, and now six role players - Dewayne Dedmon, Tyler Herro, Caleb Martin, Duncan Robinson, Max Strus and Gabe Vincent - are all questionable to play. Martin, Herro and Dedmon did all play in the Heat’s win over Washington on Friday, so perhaps you can count on them being on the floor tonight but it is always worth it to bet into a line with clarity on the injury report rather than take the risk. On the other side there is an Atlanta team which continues to show its inconsistent level of play on both ends of the floor. In the four games prior to their loss to the Rockets the Hawks had averaged just 105.5 points per 100 possessions. Against Houston the team broke out for 1.165 points per possession, but gave up 1.243 on defense and lost outright. Clint Capela missed the game, which did not help their defensive effort, and is questionable to play tonight. Regardless, the Hawks are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games and not worth wagering on at this point. The side has not moved at all this morning, but the total is now up to 223.5 consensus.
The road has been an unfriendly place for the Memphis Grizzlies this season. The team is 4-6 SU/1-7-2 ATS with a -6.0 net rating in non-garbage time and they have failed to cover their last seven. That could be why we’re seeing this line drop to -2.5 consensus this morning despite some injury concerns for New York. Jalen Brunson, Cam Reddish and Derrick Rose are all questionable to play tonight, and should Brunson or Reddish be unavailable that is a huge blow. Reddish has been great in his minutes this season, improving the Knicks’ net rating by 4.6 points per 100 possessions, contributing mostly with his defensive play. Brunson leads the team in scoring (21.6) and assists (6.5). Reddish has missed the last three and I don’t think it's any coincidence that the Knicks have allowed 119.2 points per 100 possessions in those contests.
Dallas continued its monstrous slide yesterday afternoon when it lost outright as a 1.5-point favorite on the road against Toronto. The Mavericks are 3-6 SU/1-8 ATS in its last nine, but the inability to cover a number stretches even further, as the team is 1-12-1 ATS in its last 14 contests. Due to Luka Doncic’s incredible play this team is rated by the market as one of the best in the league, but that just isn’t the case. We can see a slight market adjustment in the line today, as the Mavericks went to Boston four days ago and closed as 5.5-point underdogs but opened +6.5 today against Milwaukee and the line moved to 7.5 immediately. The Bucks have a large advantage on the glass tonight that will go a long way toward deciding this game. Milwaukee leads the league in overall rebounding (52.9%) and is second in defensive rebounding (75.5%). That matters against Dallas which can generate nearly nothing when it comes to offensive rebounds (24.3%) and second chance points (10.9). Unless the Mavericks are going to be extremely efficient on their first attempts it could be a long night.