NBA Best Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Wednesday, January 25th

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 

January 25, 2023 07:38 AM
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Welcome to the daily NBA best bets page, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page

Stay up to date on injury news with our injury report page as well.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 41-45 | Units: -7.92 | ROI: -9.19%

Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors

Memphis comes into this game short-handed up front, as Steven Adams will miss his second straight game with knee soreness. Adams is a huge loss due to his ability to crash the offensive glass against smaller teams, like Golden State, and set effective screens. In the possessions without him on the floor they are only +1.4 and that drops to -4.4 with Xavier Tillman at center. The Warriors have everyone available tonight and they are at home, where they are 17-6 SU/15-8 ATS with the second best defensive rating in non-garbage time (108.0). Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are 11-13 SU/8-14-2 ATS away from home this season. This number is over 3.5 by my measure so give me the home team.

Bet: Warriors (-2.5)

Toronto Raptors at Sacramento Kings (-4, 238.5)

OG Anunoby is listed as questionable to go tonight, but according to a report from Josh Lewenberg the Raptors wing is expected to play tonight. If that is the case, then we can expect this number to move in Toronto’s direction, something that has already begun to happen this morning. Sacramento is 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS in its last eight games and coming off a decisive win over Memphis, but the team continues to struggle on defense, allowing 115.8 points per 100 possessions for the season and 118.3 for the month of January. Toronto’s offense has been improving with better health, and has put up 121.2 points per 100 possessions over its last eight games. 

Bet: Raptors (+4)

Best Bet Recap

Warriors (-2.5)

Raptors (+4)

NBA Games & Odds

*Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic (-4.5, 233)

Indiana snapped an 0-7 SU/1-6 ATS slide with a comeback win over Chicago on Tuesday night, and now it is in Orlando facing the Magic on no rest. It is a very disadvantageous position, but is the market getting overzealous in its rating of Orlando? The Magic are 5-5 SU/7-3 ATS in their last 10 games, but the team has closed as an underdog in each of those games but one. Orlando is an undervalued team, as evidenced by their 26-20-1 ATS record for the season. However, in the first two meetings with Indiana it closed catching 6.5 and 7 points. Is the market overcorrecting here driving the line up to 5.5 consensus?

Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers (-5.5, 226.5)

Joel Embiid is questionable to play with foot soreness, and that designation should be enough to keep the masses off this game until his status is clear. He did not practice on Tuesday which is a poor sign for his pending availability tonight. Meanwhile, Brooklyn has started to find its footing without Kevin Durant and comes into this game after ending a west coast trip with wins and covers at Utah and Golden State. Should Embiid miss this game expect the total to rise as well as the line to shrink. With Embiid on the floor the 76ers are an elite defensive team, allowing 108.8 points per 100 possessions, but without him their defensive rating balloons to 116.0, according to Cleaning The Glass.

*Denver Nuggets at Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5, 225.5)

Denver blew the cover last night in New Orleans, but the team got the win. Now they are in Milwaukee facing an Eastern Conference foe, and that likely means some time off for key role players. Jamal Murray will likely get his usual night off, and do not be surprised if Nikola Jokic takes the night off either as he has been dealing with injury issues himself. If both are out this number should sail past 10 for Milwaukee, which is fully healthy outside of Bobby Portis who will not play tonight.

 

 

Atlanta Hawks at Oklahoma City Thunder (-1, 236.5)

Oklahoma City is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games and 10-1 ATS in the month of January. This run of high-level basketball has oddsmakers adjusting the power rating on the play-in hopeful, but the market is pushing back this morning. Atlanta is now the favorite in this contest, and even with the adjustment one could make the argument that the Hawks are undervalued still, as the current number tells us there is only a 4-point difference between these two on a neutral court. De’Andre Hunter and Onyeka Okongwu are both questionable, but neither are worth adjusting the power rating for Atlanta by more than a point.

Utah Jazz at Portland Trail Blazers (-3.5, 237.5)

Portland has been an odd team to evaluate over the last month. Since Dec. 16 the Trail Blazers are 6-13 SU and ATS, but they have a slightly positive net rating in non-garbage time (+0.6). Their defense has been the culprit, allowing 117.0 points per 100 possessions and squandering an offense which is seventh best in the NBA over the same stretch. Despite the poor results I still rate this team as better than Utah, and the opening number would tell us these two teams are equal. It’s why the market is showing some correction and betting this up to where it is now. 

San Antonio Spurs at *Los Angeles Lakers (-6.5, 242.5)

We’re seeing some slight movement toward San Antonio this morning, but that is the usual market push against teams that are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back. Darvin Ham pulled the plug with four minutes left in the loss to the Clippers last night, so the Lakers are slightly more rested than a usual team in this scenario. They are also getting back Anthony Davis, which is obviously a massive boost. LeBron James will be listed as questionable, but that can be largely ignored as he carries the designation every night and has yet to miss a game. When Davis and James are on the floor together Los Angeles is only +2.3 per 100 possessions, but their 110.0 defensive rating ranks in the 87th percentile of lineups.

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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PRO TIPS

VSiN Final Countdown: The Travis Kelce Receiving Yards number will likely increase soon. If you like the over, bet it now. View more tips.

Follow The Money: Sharps bet on more negative money and "No" on Super Bowl props than plus money and "Yes." There are more variables working in favor of the sharp's side. View more tips.

PRO PICKS

Josh Appelbaum: Kansas City at Philadelphia - UNDER (50). View more picks.
 
Steve Buchanan: Any player to have a 55+ yard reception (+250). View more picks.

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