NBA Best Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Wednesday, January 11th

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 

January 11, 2023 09:54 AM
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Welcome to the daily NBA best bets page, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page. Stay up to date on injury news with our injury report page as well.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 36-44 | Units: -9.47 | ROI: -12.12%

Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5, 232) at Atlanta Hawks

The betting market has bumped this line up a point in favor of Milwaukee, and it's easy to see why. Clint Capela is still out with a calf strain that has kept him out of the last seven games, and Atlanta’s defense has suffered without him. On the season, the Hawks allow 114.3 points per 100 possessions without him on the floor, and in the seven games since his injury their non-garbage time defensive rating of 117.5 is 21st in the NBA. Without Capela their rim defense is non-existent, allowing teams to take 39.4% of their attempts at the rim and hit 68.6% of those shots. That might be a problem when facing a player like Giannis Antetokunmpo who can pressure the rim better than almost anyone in the league.

For the season the numbers do not look impressive for Milwaukee, but with Jrue Holiday back on the floor this team is much better than those numbers indicate. When Holiday and Antetokounmpo are on the floor the Bucks own a +8.1 net rating, and they limit opponents to 108.9 points per 100 possessions. Atlanta is 2-1 SU and ATS against Milwaukee with a +10.1 net rating in non-garbage time, but Capela was on the floor for all three of those contests and Holiday missed one of the losses. That is a massive difference that should swing this contest in the Bucks’ direction.

Play: Bucks (-2)

Best Bet Recap

Bucks (-2)

The Rest

Minnesota Timberwolves (-7, 230) at *Detroit Pistons

Detroit was short-handed against Philadelphia last night, and it looked that way on the court in a 147-116 loss for the Pistons. Bojan Bogdanovic, Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren all missed the contest due to injury, and they would need to be on the floor to make Detroit an option. Minnesota has won and covered its last four, but is still a relatively poor rebounding team, coming into this game 23rd and 27th respectively in defensive and offensive rebounding rate. When Duren and Stewart are on the floor together Detroit grabs 29.0% of its missed shot attempts and 74.8% of opponents’ missed attempts. It would certainly be a facet of this game the Pistons could thrive, but only if those two are available. Meanwhile, Anthony Edwards is on the report with hip soreness, so make sure to get some clarity before jumping into this one.

Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards (-1, 230)

The injury report rules this one. DeMar DeRozan is questionable to play with a quad injury he suffered against Boston, and Washington has three key names on its report: Kristaps Porzingis, Daniel Gafford and Corey Kispert. Each of those players has value to their respective teams, and should DeRozan not play this number would swing back toward the Wizards. Should Porzingis and Gafford both be unavailable for the Wizards that would mean a severely undersized frontcourt for Washington and a potentially big night for Nikola Vucevic. Right now the number is toggling between -1 either side, so there is likely a better opportunity for either side once the game tips off. 

New Orleans Pelicans at Boston Celtics (-9.5, 229)

Marcus Smart and Robert Williams are questionable with injury for Boston, and if neither can go those are absences that can alter this line even further. Meanwhile, Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson remain out, and Herb Jones is doubtful to play. The potential absences of the three best defenders in this game has this total up to 231.5 and it could climb higher should both Smart and Williams be forced to sit. The Celtics fell to 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games when they failed to cover against the Bulls on Monday night, and here the team is laying a similar number to the Pelicans. 

Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks (-4.5, 226.5)

Indiana can clinch the Over on its win total with a victory over New York tonight, and recent form would suggest the team can pull it off. The Pacers are 8-2 SU/7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games, and their offense has been tremendous in putting up 117.4 points per 100 possessions. Where this game will be decided, much like every contest that involves Indiana, will be in transition. New York is fifth in transition defense, limiting opponents to 0.6 points added points per 100 possessions off live rebounds. T.J. McConnell and Aaron Nesmith are both questionable for Indiana as well, which would be a blow to its depth if they cannot go. 

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Look at cross sport props in the Super Bowl, they are often the best value on the expanded Super Bowl prop board. View more tips.

VSiN Final Countdown: Adam Burke advises "addition by subtraction" - when betting Super Bowl props, have more minus bets than plus bets, betting a little to win a lot is great (safety, OT, etc), but there's a reason those are long shots. View more tips.

PRO PICKS

Danny Burke: Isiah Pacheco Over 63.5 Rush+Rec Yards (-114). View more picks.

Pauly Howard: 1st TD Non-Passing (+145). View more picks.

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