Welcome to the daily NBA best bets page, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!
All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page.
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*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers
Best Bets
Record: 46-51 | Units: -7.37 | ROI: -7.75%
There are no best bets as of this morning.
NBA Games & Odds
New York Knicks (-1.5, 227) at Orlando Magic
RJ Barrett is questionable to play for New York, but his status should not alter this line one way or another. In fact, one could make the argument that the Knicks are better without Barrett on the floor. Regardless, New York has played 10 games without Mitchell Robinson, and their defense continues to suffer. In those games opponents have averaged 120.7 points per 100 possessions and the Knicks have a -3.5 net rating. Meanwhile, the Magic are 9-8 SU/12-5 ATS since the beginning of January with a -1.2 net rating. There is not much separating these two teams, especially with the absence of Robinson, but the market believes there is about a 4.5 point difference on a neutral.
Phoenix Suns (-4.5, 226) at *Brooklyn Nets
It is unclear when the new additions of Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith will be available for Brooklyn, but we do know of one big name that will join the frey tonight. Devin Booker will be back on the floor for Phoenix tonight, and his presence is a massive upgrade. This version of the Nets has been extremely poor defensively, allowing 124.7 points per 100 possessions over the last seven games. With Booker back the Suns, which were 30th in non-garbage time offensive efficiency in the 22 games he missed (109.9), should be able to exploit the Nets’ defense. This line is up to 5.5 consensus, but the total is dipping to 225 which might be the market accounting for Ben Simmons playing.
Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans (-2, 234.5)
This is the last game of a road trip for Atlanta, which is as healthy as it has been all season. However, that health has not led to improved play on the defensive end of the floor. The Hawks own a 120.5 defensive rating over their last 11 games, and they enter this contest 19th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (114.9). The poor defensive play is notable here, as the Pelicans have been looking for consistency with their offense, which averaged just 106.2 points per 100 possessions during their 0-10 SU/1-8-1 ATS slide that was snapped a few nights ago. This total is up to 237 consensus, but the side remains at 1.5 as of this morning. If bettors are looking to get involved here it would be much better to do so in-game, where a better number for either side is sure to show.
Chicago Bulls at Memphis Grizzlies (-7.5)
Things can go south quickly in this league, and Memphis is learning that the hard way. The Grizzlies are 1-8 SU/2-7 ATS in their last nine games, and they have been outscored by 6.8 points per 100 possessions. Their defense has regressed quite a bit, but it’s the sudden lack of offense that has sunk this ship. Memphis’ offensive rating of 109.8 during this slide is third worst in the NBA over that stretch, and they are shooting just 31.9% from beyond the arc. To make matters worse, noise from outside basketball about their star, Ja Morant, is starting to seep its way in. The market does not seem to be too bothered by it though, as 8.5 is starting to appear on the board, but given the poor stretch of play, and undervalued nature of Chicago which is 15-7 SU/14-7-1 ATS in its last 22 games, this is not a number worth laying.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets (-8, 235.5)
As has become the norm for Minnesota Timberwolves contests, bettors must monitor the injury report tonight. Kyle Anderson and Rudy Gobert are both questionable to play with injury, and both are impactful players to the betting line. If neither plays, that could be worth about 4.5 points to the spread. Both were listed when these two teams met in Minnesota on Monday, but they played and Denver still rolled to a 128-98 victory. That number closed about -8.5 in Minnesota, so it isn’t a surprise that this line is now 9.5 at a few shops, injuries aside.
*Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers (-7.5, 237.5)
LeBron James is 36 points away from breaking Kareem Abdul-Jabar’s scoring record, and there is a possibility that goes down tonight. Oklahoma City lacks a true physical match for James on defense, so it would not be shocking for him to have a massive night on offense. As for the game itself, the market is pushing back on Los Angeles here and I agree. One of the weakest facets of the Lakers’ defense has been their ability to defend in transition. They rank 30th in overall defensive efficiency in transition and 29th off live rebounds, and the Thunder will exploit that as often as they can.