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All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page.
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*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers
Record: 45-51 | Units: -9.19 | ROI: -9.09%
Toronto is just 2-2 SU and ATS on this seven-game road trip so far, but the team is 4-2 ATS in its last six overall and playing decent basketball. However, they lost OG Anunoby to injury a few nights ago, and their defense has, unsurprisingly, taken a hit without him on the floor. Golden State, the team which Anunoby injured his wrist against, put up 1.277 points per possession in a win, and Phoenix averaged 1.213 per possession on Monday night. On the season they allow 3.7 more points per 100 possessions when Anunoby is not on the floor, which leads to me playing this over the total.
The Raptors’ offense does not suffer without Anunoby. In fact, they score more per 100 possessions without him (116.2). Since Jan. 10 they are averaging 122.8 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, and they face a defense in Utah that is 27th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency. One of the biggest weaknesses for the Jazz is their inability to defend in transition. They rank 16th in overall defensive efficiency in transition (128.2) and 26th in defensive efficiency in transition off live rebounds (125.4). The Raptors lead the league in points added per 100 possessions through transition play (4.6). Meanwhile, this smallish Toronto team will have trouble keeping the seventh best offensive rebounding team in the NBA off the glass, and limiting second chance points by extension. Throw in the mismatch of Utah’s 11th best halfcourt offense against Toronto’s 20th ranked halfcourt defense and you have a high scoring affair.
Bet: OVER 230.5
Best Bet Recap
Raptors/Jazz OV (230.5)
NBA Games & Odds
Orlando won the first of this two-game series on Monday night by limiting Philadelphia to just 1.038 points per possession. The 76ers’ production on both ends of the floor completely disappeared in the second half, specifically in the third quarter when they allowed 42 points to the Magic. It might not have been the best spot for Philadelphia, as both Joel Embiid and James Harden were in attendance for the Eagles’ win in the NFC Championship game and might have been caught up in the festivities. Speaking of Embiid, he carries a questionable designation here with foot soreness, something that is becoming increasingly routine. His status will hold bettors hostage until it is confirmed he will play.
Memphis took care of business in its first game back home on Sunday against Indiana, but the team is still in the midst of a 4-8 ATS slide. Steven Adams remains sidelined, and Desmond Bane has missed the last two games with knee soreness and is questionable to play in this one. This is also the first of a back-to-back for the Grizzlies, but with the team in Cleveland for a game against the Cavaliers tomorrow this contest would make the most sense for Bane to play in if he can. Josh Hart and Jusuf Nurkic are both probable to play for Portland, so the door is ajar for them to be ruled out. If Nurkic plays this sets up for a massive game for him. Xavier Tillman and Brandon Clarke have been getting minutes at center without Adams, and with both listed at 6-foot-8 it gives Nurkic a big edge. The Grizzlies are also -5.2 and -9.2 with Tillman and Clarke at center respectively.
Ben Simmons is expected to miss his third straight game with knee soreness, but Brooklyn did not seem to miss him in the first two contests. However, they might miss him here. The Nets’ defense has hit a lull, allowing nearly 1.3 points per possession in the three games before hosting the short-handed Lakers. With Simmons sidelined against Boston that takes away a defensive option for Brooklyn to use on either Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown. The Celtics are 0-6 ATS in their last six games, as the market has really inflated the power rating of this team, and this is a decent example of that. Boston closed as 8.5-point favorites over both the Knicks and Lakers. Are the Nets, even without Simmons on the floor, not better than both of those teams? Early moves on the overnight line would suggest that is the case. Especially when you consider the fact that Boston will be without Marcus Smart once again, and Robert Williams’ questionable status.
Houston will not have its starting backcourt once again tonight, as both Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. are out with injury. It might seem bleak for the Rockets, but Alperen Sengun will be back after missing the game in Detroit on Saturday. That matters because Sengun has been Houston’s best player this season, and when he is on the floor without Green and Porter the Rockets are +11.1 per 100 possessions. That does not necessarily mean Houston will be on par with the best teams in the league in these situations, but it does mean the market could overreact to two known names being ruled out. Oklahoma City has slowed down some since its 9-0 ATS run, but the market is still very high on this team. That is despite the extended absence of Lu Dort who has missed the last two games.
Golden State grabbed yet another road win and cover on Monday night to improve to 4-2 SU/5-1 ATS in its last six away games, but it did not come without drama. The Warriors nearly blew a 21-point third quarter lead, allowing the Thunder to get within two points twice in the fourth quarter before pulling away. This is the first of a back-to-back for Golden State tonight, so there is certainly a chance Klay Thompson or anyone else is ruled out before tip-off. This number seems somewhat indicative of that possibility, as Minnesota was just catching 1.5 against Sacramento on Monday night. For the Timberwolves, Rudy Gobert is on the injury report once more, but he has appeared in each of the last five games despite going into each as questionable. This is a quintessential NBA game, with most of the handicapping being about watching the wire for injury information on both teams.
Trae Young did not play in Portland on Monday, and while he is listed as probable on the overnight injury report that is no guarantee he will suit up here. Atlanta is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games and its defense has been abysmal, giving up 124.3 points per 100 possessions over the last seven. Young’s presence obviously helps this team on offense, but there is seemingly no cure for a defense that is now 20th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (115.3).
Meanwhile, the market continues to drag its feet on upgrading a now healthy Suns team which is now 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven games. This run coincides with the return of both Cam Johnson and Chris Paul, both of whom have improved this team’s defense exponentially. During this run Phoenix has allowed just 107.8 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time which has led to a +6.6 net rating. I’ve played the Suns a few times recently because I’m not sure the market has accounted for their improved health and better play. I am tempted to do it here, but will wait to see what the market does when Young is announced as active.