NBA Best Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Tuesday, November 29th

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 

November 29, 2022 09:53 AM

Welcome to the daily NBA best bets page, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 20-27 | Units: -7.57 | ROI: -16.78%

None on a short slate.

The Rest

New York Knicks (-3.5, 224.5) at Detroit Pistons

After landing right on the number in Cleveland the Detroit Pistons’ spread record over the last eight games is now 6-0-2 ATS. The Pistons have not done anything particularly special, but the market did bottom out on its rating for Detroit and they coupled that with some improved play. They have been outscored by only 3.0 points per 100 possessions, and their 113.2 offensive rating during this run is much better than their season-long 110.0 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. The market has clearly been wrong on its rating of Detroit, but it is coming in against them once more today, driving this number up to -5 in favor of New York. The Knicks closed -9 at home when these two teams met earlier this month, but this number would be 11 if we swung it back to New York. Should the four players who are questionable to play tonight - Bojan Bogdanovic, Marvin Bagley, Jaden Ivey and Isaiah Stewart - this number should find its way back to the open.

Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks (-1, 226.5)

Here we have another great example of a market adjustment. A couple of weeks ago Dallas would have opened as a favorite here, and the line would have more than likely moved in its direction. However, the Mavericks are now 1-13-1 ATS in their last 15 games, and the Warriors have quietly started to round into form. Golden State has won and covered its last three, and over the course of the last six games the team is 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS with a +6.8 net rating in non-garbage time. Dallas continues to struggle in the minutes without Luka Doncic on the floor, averaging just 105.1 points per 100 possessions on offense. The team is desperate enough for another shot creator that they reportedly signed Kemba Walker the other day. The question for bettors now becomes: Is this adjustment too much? This is the exact same number the Warriors were laying against the Timberwolves on Sunday, a number which was clearly too low. This line is more in line with what I made it, and the market has it right in supporting Golden State tonight.

Los Angeles Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers (-2, 217)

Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are still out, and John Wall is out as well with the Clippers playing on the front end of a back-to-back. Los Angeles has only been outscored by 1.2 points per 100 possessions in the time without those three on the floor, and their defensive rating (107.9) ranks in the 87th percentile of lineups. Portland is 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS in the four games without Damian Lillard with a 111.2 offensive rating, and this is its first game back after a four-game road trip, a situation which some bettors find less than favorable. The Clippers have been very inconsistent lately, but their win over the Pacers on Sunday showed that this team is still capable of bottling up opponents defensively. The big move here has been on the total, which is down six points to 211 consensus.

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