NBA Best Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Tuesday, March 7th

March 7, 2023

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Welcome to the daily NBA best bets page, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page.

Stay up to date on injury news with our injury report page as well.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 53-60 | Units: -9.47 | ROI: -7.76%

Charlotte Hornets at New York Knicks (-9.5, 225.5)

New York is 9-0 SU and ATS in its last nine games and 11-1 SU and ATS in its last 12 contests. The market has come around on this team, and rightfully so considering the consistent play it has put forth. This number is now -10 across the board as of this morning, and there is no real argument to be made for Charlotte. The Hornets have dropped their last three games both SU and ATS, and without LaMelo Ball on the floor this team is getting outscored by 6.8 points per 100 possessions. There are mismatches across the board here, but one that really sticks out is how both teams start games.

New York is the third best first half team in the NBA by net rating, outscoring opponents by 6.8 points per 100 possessions. Charlotte is the worst first half team in the league, posting a -9.9 net rating in the first two quarters of play this season. Specify that to the road and the Hornets are outscored by 12.4 points per 100 possessions in the first half of games this season. Jalen Brunson is questionable with a sore foot, but the market bump here would indicate a confidence Brunson will be on the floor. I’ll ride with the Knickerbockers in the first half here.

Bet: Knicks 1H (-5.5)

Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers (-2, 226.5)

Memphis is clearly not in a great spot right now. Ja Morant is away from the team indefinitely, Brandon Clarke is done for the season and Steven Adams is still out with a shoulder injury. The team cannot find success on the road either, and fell to 12-20 SU/11-19-2 ATS away from home this season when it blew a fourth quarter lead to the Clippers on Sunday night. Even so, in those recent road losses there were positive signs. The Grizzlies did average 1.277 points per possession in their most recent loss, and Desmond Bane has proven to be a quality lead scorer in dropping 73 points in his last three games, 30 in the loss to Los Angeles.

It is also hard to ignore the line value here for Memphis. When the Grizzlies hosted the Lakers on Feb. 28 they closed as 10-point favorites in a game they would go on to win and cover. That number would translate to Memphis -4 in Los Angeles, but this is obviously not where this number opened. Yes, Ja Morant did play in that back in Memphis, but his absence is not worth six points to the line, as this number would say it is. Dillon Brooks will be back on the floor tonight after serving a one-game suspension, which gives the Grizzlies back their lead on-ball defender who was sorely missed on Sunday.

Bet: Grizzlies ML (+105)

Best Bet Recap

Knicks 1H (-5.5)
Grizzlies ML (+105)

NBA Games & Odds

Golden State Warriors (-4, 231.5) at Oklahoma City Thunder

The Golden State Warriors are 7-24 SU/9-22 ATS on the road this season, so it is easy to understand anyone who would want to continue to fade this team in these situations. However, it is hard to ignore the line value being presented here in this game. The Warriors closed as 5-point favorites over the Lakers in Los Angeles on Sunday; a team that opened PK on the road against the Thunder with a questionable Anthony Davis. The market has been toggling back and forth between the opening number and 4.5 this morning with no real commitment to one direction. A few shops reached as high as -5 but were bought back down, which gives us an idea of what the ceiling on this number is, barring any surprise injury news.

Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5, 233.5) at Orlando Magic

Giannis Antetokounmpo is considered probable to play today, so bettors will obviously need to monitor his status throughout the day, but the real name to monitor is Jrue Holiday. Holiday is questionable to play with neck soreness, and he has a real impact on both ends of the floor for Milwaukee. The Bucks’ net rating is +9.6 with Holiday on the court, but it drops to -1.6 in the possessions without him. Even in the possessions with Antetokounmpo on the floor without Holiday Milwaukee has only outscored opponents by 1.5 points per 100 possessions this season. The Bucks are not the only team dealing with injury here either, as Wendell Carter Jr. is questionable to return from a hip injury tonight. Carter is a driving force behind this Magic defense, and without him Orlando allows 3.4 more points per 100 possessions.

*Philadelphia 76ers (-2, 229) at Minnesota Timberwolves

There is no official indication that Joel Embiid will miss this game, but considering it is a back-to-back on the road against a Western Conference opponent the probability is high. The market flipping this number to Minnesota is an indication that Embiid, and perhaps both Tobias Harris and PJ Tucker who missed the game in Indiana, all miss this game. The spot is favorable for the Timberwolves, as they return home from a successful road trip in which they went 3-1 SU and ATS. The injury report for Minnesota is clean as well, but with no true indication as to who will be available for the opposition it is unwise to take a preflop position this early in the day.

Brooklyn Nets (-7 229.5) at Houston Rockets

Brooklyn has suddenly found its defensive footing over the last two games, limiting Boston and Charlotte to a combined 93.6 points per 100 possessions. In the previous seven games the Nets had allowed 124.3 points per 100 possessions, so all we have had from this team since its reconstruction are performances on the extreme opposite ends of the spectrum defensively. Regardless of what they do defensively, they should be able to score efficiently against the Rockets which have allowed 124.7 points per 100 possessions to its last 13 opponents. This totals has been bet up to 231.5 at a few shops this morning, which isn’t a surprising development, but there has been a shocking move toward the “tanking” Rockets.

Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks (-6.5, 232)

This total has been bet up to 236.5 consensus this morning which should surprise no one. Dallas has allowed 120.3 points per 100 possessions with both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving on the floor together, but they have outscored opponents by 10.0 points in those possessions due to an incredible offensive rating (130.3). Those defensive numbers are not scaring off the market though, as the number has moved in their favor by quite a bit. The consensus number is now 8.5 and this is the fourth straight game the line has moved in their favor. Utah has not been as consistent on offense during this 0-3 SU and ATS slide it is on, but the Mavericks have a tendency to allow opponents to find their groove on offense, especially if Maxi Kleber is not available tonight.