NBA Best Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Tuesday, January 31st

January 31, 2023

Welcome to the daily NBA best bets page, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page.

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*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 44-50 | Units: -8.19 | ROI: -9.09%

Los Angeles Lakers at New York Knicks (-2, 232)

Anthony Davis and LeBron James should be on the floor tonight after taking the night off in Brooklyn on Monday. The Knicks will be at full strength, outside of the absence of Mitchell Robinson who has been out for nearly two weeks now. So, knowing the strength of both teams, do the Lakers really rate as the better one? That is what this line is telling us this morning. James was otherworldly in the loss to Boston on Saturday, but this team is still just +0.8 per 100 possessions with both him and Davis on the floor together. This number should be -3 at the least considering homecourt’s value, and even that does not give the Knicks enough credit here.

Bet: Knicks (-2)

Best Bet Recap

Knicks (-2)

NBA Odds & Games

Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers (-5.5, 210)

This game will be all about monitoring Jimmy Butler’s status throughout the day. Butler is questionable with a thigh contusion that he apparently suffered in the Heat’s loss to the Hornets on Sunday. If Butler is ruled out this number should get to Cavaliers -7 or higher in most spots. Without Butler on the floor Miami’s offense suffers, going from 115.8 offensive rating in his minutes to 108.5 when he is off. Cleveland is also at an advantage being fully healthy here. Kevin Love is expected to play, and Donovan Mitchell returned from injury last time out against Los Angeles.

Los Angeles Clippers (-3, 228.5) at Chicago Bulls

Paul George and Kawhi Leonard should be back on the floor for Los Angeles tonight, and that makes all the difference in the world. The Clippers have outscored their opponents by 10.8 points per 100 possessions in the minutes with both George and Leonard on the floor together, and their offensive rating of 122.4 in those possessions ranks in the 97th percentile of lineups. Chicago is playing some great basketball recently, posting a 13-6-1 ATS record in their last 20 games, but they do not have a defensive matchup for either George or Leonard here.

Charlotte Hornets at Milwaukee Bucks (-11, 242)

For whatever reason the Charlotte Hornets have been quite the irritant for the Milwaukee Bucks. In the last 12 meetings between these two franchises the Hornets are 5-7 SU but 9-3 ATS. In the wins for Charlotte the team has exploited the 3-point line, hitting 18-of-44 3-pointers in the win back on Jan. 6 at Milwaukee. The Hornets are a team that shoots a high volume of 3-point attempts, and that works against a team that plays a lot of drop coverage. Perhaps there is something to this matchup that does work in their favor. The market has been stuck at the opening number here, so there is no push for one side or another so far. It is worth noting that Giannis Antetokounmpo is on the injury report, which leaves the door open for his absence.

New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets (-7.5, 233.5)

Denver has hit a bit of a bump in the road and the market rating seems to have peaked. The Nuggets are 1-3 SU in their last four games, and 3-4-1 ATS in their last eight games. Jamal Murray is also questionable to play here, so monitor his status if you want to get involved tonight. For New Orleans, this is the third game for Brandon Ingram since returning from injury. He has scored 35 points on 12-of-40 shooting from the floor, clearly working his way back from a long layoff. At one point he will find his footing, and it could be tonight, but until then this is a Pelicans team that is 3-13 SU/4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 contests.