Welcome to the daily NBA best bets page, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!
All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page.
Stay up to date on injury news with our injury report page as well.
*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers
Record: 41-45 | Units: -7.92 | ROI: -9.19%
NBA Games & Odds
Chicago improved to 12-4-1 ATS in its last 17 games when it defeated 111-100 last night. The offensive surge the Bulls have been on quieted down, as that win was more about limiting the Hawks to 1.031 points per possession than it was dominating on offense. Tonight, they get another struggling offensive opponent in the Pacers. Since losing Tyrese Haliburton, they are 0-6 SU/1-5 ATS with the worst offensive rating in the league in non-garbage time (104.6). Home court has been at a premium this season, but barring any injury report surprises, this number should move in favor of Chicago once injury reports are up.
Boston started Derrick White and Blake Griffin in place of Marcus Smart and Robert Williams last night, so the injury report will be necessary for bettors looking to back the Celtics here. Boston had its 9-0 SU run snapped by Orlando on Monday, and the team has failed to cover three straight as it heads into this game with Miami. The Heat are the healthiest they have been all season, and the winning is coming more frequently, although they are only 2-4-1 ATS in their last seven. Miami is 1-2 SU and ATS against Boston this season, and its defense has had some trouble in the series, allowing 118.4 points per 100 possessions. The problem for the Heat in this series has been containing the Celtics' shooting. In three games Boston is shooting 41.5% on 41.0 3-point attempts per game. Miami tends to allow 3-point attempts as part of its defensive philosophy, and ranks 29th in frequency of opponent 3-pointers. If the Celtics are healthy, this number will move off the 3, as that number would say these two are near equals, which is not the case.
The sample size is small, but in the three games without Mitchell Robinson — I include the Washington game as he played only nine minutes — New York has allowed 1.33 points per possession and two of them have gone over the total. The most recent example was Sunday, when the Raptors averaged 1.302 points per possession in a 125-116 win for Toronto. Donovan Mitchell is set to return to action in this game as well, making this an even bigger challenge for a lesser Knicks defense. Having said all that, Cleveland has struggled greatly away from home this season, posting a 9-14 SU/8-13-2 ATS record on the road. Robinson is very important, but are the Cavaliers really 6.5 points better on a neutral court? That is what this number is telling us.
Nikola Jokic, Michael Porter Jr. and Bones Hyland are all questionable to play, and that is why we see such a short number in favor of Denver. Jokic has missed the last two games, one of which was a loss to Oklahoma City. The Nuggets are obviously very reliant on Jokic, and his status will decide where this number closes. The Pelicans are 3-7 SU/4-6 ATS since losing Zion Williamson, but they are deep enough to be considered favorites here should Jokic not be able to go.
The loss to the Clippers on Sunday extended a tough stretch of basketball for Dallas. The Mavericks are 4-7 SU/3-8 ATS this month with an abysmal 121.9 defensive rating in non-garbage time. Dorian Finney-Smith and Josh Green are both back from injury, and this defense was supposed to be better once they returned, but that has not been the case. This is no picnic for this struggling unit either as Bradley Beal is back on the floor for Washington, and in the two games since his return, the Wizards have averaged 1.296 points per possession.
The Clippers have dominated this series in recent years. Since Ty Lue took over as head coach, the Clippers are 9-0 SU/8-1 ATS against the Lakers, with the Clippers winning by an average of 10.8 points per game. Both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are available tonight, so the odds of the Clippers extending that streak look good, especially if LeBron James cannot play. The numbers continue to improve for the Clippers when both George and Leonard play, as the team is now +9.1 per 100 possessions with both on the floor. This number has dipped overnight, and will likely continue to do so should James’ status improve.