Welcome to the daily NBA best bets page, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!
All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page.
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*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers
Record: 47-52 | Units: -6.96 | ROI: -7.20%
There are no preflop best bets as of this morning.
I will be looking to back the Clippers, but the aim will be to find a cheaper number in-game tonight. Their defense has been inconsistent enough that a better number will likely present itself at some point.
NBA Games & Odds
Toronto could be short quite a few rotation pieces tonight when it hosts Orlando. OG Anunoby is still sidelined with a wrist injury, and both Precious Achiuwa and Gary Trent Jr. are questionable to play. Neither Achiuwa nor Trent is a massive loss on his own, but Achiuwa did start in Trent’s place against Detroit, so together it is probably worth a point to the line. The Raptors are already uniquely equipped to match up with the Magic given their own length and ability to defend in transition. Given the scheduling advantage as well, it is not a surprise that the market is starting to move in favor of Toronto here.
A crowded injury report has completely ruined a playoff preview between Boston and Milwaukee. Jayson Tatum was downgraded to doubtful with a non-COVID illness, and both Grant Williams and Robert Williams are questionable to play. With Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart already out, this line is up to 9.5 consensus and 10 has appeared at a few shops. Once Tatum is officially ruled out, as well as the others, this has the potential to climb to 12 before close. Milwaukee has won 10 straight and is 6-3-1 ATS in those games, and with only 1.5 games separating them and Boston for the top seed in the Eastern Conference, bettors can expect a full effort from the Bucks, even against a short-handed opponent.
Phoenix is 10-3 SU/9-4 ATS in its last 13 games with a +3.5 net rating in non-garbage time, and it would seem the market is hesitant to buy in. This run is not random either, as it coincides with better health for the Suns. Tonight is an interesting situation because the Suns will have Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton on the floor, but the numbers with those three together have been very poor. In the possessions with those three on the floor, Phoenix is -3.7 per 100 possessions, but it’s been a very limited sample size due to injury. They should be better when all together, and they could show that tonight against Sacramento. The Kings are just 7-6 SU/5-8 ATS in their last 13 games with a +0.1 net rating in non-garbage time. Their defense has been worse than usual, allowing 118.3 points per 100 possessions, and there is little reason to expect a better defensive effort tonight. There has been a slight dip in the number, and 2.5 can be found for Suns bettors who are interested.
Los Angeles has a massive rest advantage here against Golden State, which comes in on no rest after dispatching Washington in San Francisco last night. The Clippers have not played since Friday, giving them three nights of rest coming into this game. The team is also healthy, with an injury report that does not have a single name on it for this game. Still, it is hard to lay a number like this with Los Angeles. First, we know Klay Thompson will play in a back-to-back for the first time this season, so the Warriors could be near full strength outside of Stephen Curry. Second, the Clippers have been wildly inconsistent. Their defense has allowed 119.2 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time since the beginning of January, and they have been held to fewer than 1.072 points per possession in five of their last seven. The new trade pieces of Bones Hyland, Eric Gordon and Mason Plumlee make their debuts tonight, so perhaps that plays into this bloated line, but trying to find a cheap spot in-game should be the way to go here.