NBA Best Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Tuesday, December 13th

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 

December 13, 2022 08:17 AM
USATSI_19597278
Zion Williamson & the Pelicans are 12-2 SU/10-4 ATS in their last 14 games

Welcome to the daily NBA best bets page, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 29-31 | Units: -2.84 | ROI: -4.88%

New Orleans Pelicans (-2, 231.5) at Utah Jazz

When it comes to the situation and scheduling spot this probably isn’t the best time to come in and back New Orleans. The Pelicans are hitting the road after an emotionally charged two-game series with the Suns which they swept, and now have to play in altitude against a great offensive team like the Jazz. With that said, if you put the situation aside you see a matchup that works in New Orleans favor and that is too good to pass up.

First, we get the lopsided meeting between the Pelicans’ offense which averages 116.6 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time against the Jazz defense which allows 116.1 points per 100 possessions. The areas in which Utah struggles on defense are the ones in which New Orleans thrives. The Jazz allow opponents to take 34.9% of their shots at the rim and hit them at a 66.3% clip while the Pelicans take the third most shots in the league within four feet (39.8%) and shoot 66.6% from that area of the floor. Utah has become one of the worst halfcourt defenses in the NBA, allowing 98.4 points per 100 plays. One of the reasons why is their inability to keep teams off the offensive glass, as they rank 25th in putback points per 100 missed attempts allowed (23.4). New Orleans ranks sixth in halfcourt offense (99.7) and 10th in putback points per 100 missed attempts (23.5). The Jazz rank 22nd in opponent points added per 100 possessions through transition offense (3.3) and the Pelicans rank eighth in that category on offense (3.3).

One would argue that there is obviously another side to this matchup outside of New Orleans’ offense facing Utah’s defense, and they would be right. However, the main strength of the Jazz offense would be its offensive rebounding, a category in which they rank sixth (29.3%) and which has led to the team ranking fifth in putback points per 100 missed attempts (24.1). The problem is that the Pelicans are an adept rebounding team on both ends of the floor and rank 10th in defensive rebounding (74.0%) and 11th in putback points allowed (19.6). The only missing piece tonight will be Brandon Ingram, so give me the road team.

Play: Pelicans (-1.5)

Best Bet Recap

Pelicans (-1.5)

The Rest

Sacramento Kings at Philadelphia 76ers (-5, 228)

De’Aaron Fox has missed the last two games and is questionable once more tonight, and his availability will be key for Sacramento. The Kings are 4-5 SU and ATS in their last nine games, but oddly enough it is due to their offense which has managed just 111.2 points per 100 possessions over this stretch. They will need Fox and a better offensive effort tonight against the 76ers which have exploded on offense since James Harden’s return. In the three games since Harden came back Philadelphia is 2-1 SU and ATS with an offense that is putting up 120.1 points per 100 possessions. This line and total have not moved and that is due to the status of Fox, but it would seem the 76ers are in a good position to take advantage of a below average 

Golden State Warriors at Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5, 228)

Once more, the injury report will be vital here. Jrue Holiday is questionable to play tonight, and if he cannot go that is a massive blow for Milwaukee. Holiday was key in their win over Dallas last week and is the only defender capable of chasing Steph Curry around the floor. Bettors will also have to take into account how the Bucks’ drop defense with Brook Lopez on the floor affects this match up. Luka Doncic absolutely abused it on Friday night to the point that Mike Budenholzer benched Lopez halfway through the end of the third quarter until Giannis Antetokounmpo got into foul trouble. There are many who will focus on Golden State’s 2-11 SU/3-10 ATS road record this season, but keep in mind that the Warriors are playing well and are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games.

*Boston Celtics (-3, 233.5) at Los Angeles Lakers

This is a brutal scheduling spot for the Celtics who are playing with no rest tonight after getting smacked by the Clippers on Monday. There is a chance that Joe Mazzula decides to rest quite a few of his starters, especially after Jayson Tatum played 37 minutes in a blowout loss. Until their status is known it's impossible to get involved in this game preflop. As we usually see with situations like this, the market has not moved this side from the overnight opening line. The total has been bet up to 236 which is odd considering Tatum could sit and this total would drop back down if that were the case.

back to news

help_desk_promo

PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

The Lombardi Line: The Chiefs-Titans game is a good comp for Kansas City's matchup with the Eagles. The Titans defensive line is the closest thing KC has seen to the Eagles' front. In the Titans game, Patrick Mahomes threw the ball 68 times. View more tips.

Live Bet Tonight: When you’re walking up to place a bet at the sportsbook counter to place a bunch of Super Bowl wagers, write down the rotation number to tell the ticket writers. There’s so many different bets available for this game, it’s a tough ask to assume writers will have every single one of them memorized. Make the process easier for them and yourself. View more tips.

PRO PICKS

Joe Fortenbaugh: A.J. Brown Anytime TD (+115). View more picks.

Mitch Moss: Opening Kickoff Touchback No (+155). View more picks.

QUICK LINKS

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

Close