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All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page.
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*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers
Best Bets
Record: 42-48 | Units: -8.01 | ROI: -9.09%
Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns (-1, 222)
Dallas is 5-8 SU/3-10 ATS in its last 13 games and playing some abysmal defense. The Mavericks have allowed 123.0 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time during this slide, the third most in the league over that stretch. It’s clear by the ATS results the market has overvalued this Dallas team all season (16-30-3 ATS, 34.8%), and it might be happening again tonight. Phoenix is the healthiest it’s been in a while, and it is starting to show in the results as the team is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four games. With better health has come better defense, and over the course of those four games the Suns have allowed 102.9 points per 100 possessions. There has been a slight move in favor of Phoenix here, but is it enough? This number would indicate that Dallas is still the better team, but given the overvaluing of the Mavericks by the market and the value of homecourt I would say that is inaccurate.
Bet: Suns (-1)
*San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Clippers (-13, 233)
Los Angeles was in San Antonio last Friday and needed a big second half to grab a 131-126 victory. The Clippers closed as 7-point favorites in that game, so a swing to -13 makes sense given the value of homecourt. One could make the argument that the Clippers didn’t cover that number in San Antonio, so there should be an adjustment on this number and there has been with this number now 12.5 consensus. Having said that, this is obviously a different scenario for Los Angeles. This will be the fourth consecutive game in which both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George will play together, and the numbers continue to improve when they are on the court (+9.2 net rating). Luke Kennard should also be back tonight, and when he is on the floor with George and Leonard that net rating improves immensely.
Bet: Clippers (-12.5)
Best Bet Recap
Suns (-1.5)
Clippers (-12.5)
NBA Games & Odds
New York Knicks at Boston Celtics (-8, 226.5)
The Celtics are 5-9 ATS in their last 14 games but 10-4 SU, showing a clear overvaluing by the betting market. However, the number is moving in their favor once more, as this is now 8.5 consensus. New York beat Cleveland at home outright on Tuesday, but the team is still dealing with the absence of Mitchell Robinson and that could be felt here against Boston with Robert Williams and Al Horford expected to be available. Big move here has been the total which is down to 222.5 consensus.
Detroit Pistons at *Brooklyn Nets (-9, 232)
Brooklyn is coming off a high-scoring, dramatic loss to Philadelphia on Wednesday night, so they are at a disadvantage when it comes to rest. There has been no indication that any of the key role players will sit for the Nets, but when teams travel for the second legs of back-to-backs, even back home, it’s always smart to confirm the status of players. Kyrie Irving has been dealing with calf soreness recently and he is a great candidate to take a game like this off, and did so when the Nets faced the Spurs over a week ago. The betting number is down to 7.5 which is the norm for teams in Brooklyn’s situation. Expect this number to get back to the opening line if the Nets’ injury report is clean.
Chicago Bulls (-5.5) at Charlotte Hornets
LaMelo Ball is questionable to play, so perhaps he returns from his ankle injury tonight but he was also listed as questionable against Phoenix and did not play. The team is 3-10 SU/3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games and has been outscored by 8.2 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time over that stretch. Ball would be an immense help should he play, but there is no way to know until it is announced. The betting market is starting to head in Chicago’s direction, but expect that to change should Ball be on the floor.