NBA Best Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Thursday, January 19th

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 

January 19, 2023 09:10 AM
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Welcome to the daily NBA best bets page, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops.

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All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page

Stay up to date on injury news with our injury report page as well.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 39-45 | Units: -8.74 | ROI: -10.51%

NBA Games & Odds

Chicago Bulls (-6, 237) vs Detroit Pistons

For those unaware, this is a neutral site game that will take place in Paris, France as part of the NBA’s Global Game series. The crowd might skew somewhat toward Detroit though, as Killian Hayes grew up in Cholet, a town four hours out of Paris, and played professionally for Cholet Basket before heading to the NBA. The teams have been across the pond since Monday, so the effect of travel for these teams should be minimal.

 

 

As for the game itself, the Pistons have a lengthy injury report with many impactful names. Jalen Duren, who has not played since Jan. 6, is questionable to play, as are both Cory Joseph and Nerlens Noel. Duren is the most impactful name here, and if he can return from injury then Detroit’s frontcourt of Duren and Isaiah Stewart can finally be reunited. The clarity will come soon as this game is set to tip-off at 3:00 p.m. ET so get your bets in quickly. 

Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics (-5.5, 237.5)

Until the correction actually occurs bettors should probably stop trying to guess when Golden State’s positive road regression is coming. The Warriors are 4-17 SU/5-16 ATS on the road this season. They rank 28th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency away from home (120.4) and 30th in opponent free throw rate (25.1). Golden State will have their complete starting five on the floor tonight and those five have been elite, outscoring opponents by 19.4 points per 100 possessions. For Boston, it comes into this game 11-2 SU/8-5 ATS in its previous 13 contests, but Jaylen Brown, who has missed the last three games, is questionable to play. He is expected to make his return though, and this is likely why this number is climbing in Boston’s favor.

Toronto Raptors (-4, 230) at *Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota fell flat on its face in the fourth quarter last night, and allowed Denver to rally for a 122-118 victory. Rudy Gobert did not play in that game, and he is likely unavailable tonight when Toronto comes to the Target Center. Keep an eye out for Anthony Edwards as well, as he has been questionable on recent injury reports, and played 37 minutes last night. The loss for the Timberwolves was just their third in January, and the team is still 6-3 SU/6-2-1 ATS this month. The big change has been their offense, which has averaged 120.4 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time during this run. Minnesota will have to be much better in transition defense if it is going to be live in this one. On the season, the Timberwolves are one of the worst transition defenses in the league, ranking 29th in overall transition defense and in defensive efficiency off live rebounds.

Brooklyn Nets (-1.5, 223) at Phoenix Suns

Phoenix could be somewhat healthier tonight when it takes the floor against Brooklyn. Cam Johnson is set to return from injury, and Chris Paul was upgraded to questionable and could be back in action as well. If that is the case, then the Suns will have four of their original starting five back on the floor. It can’t come at a better time, as Phoenix is 2-12 SU/4-7-1 ATS in its last 14 games with a -10.7 net rating in non-garbage time. Kyrie Irving will be back on the floor after missing the loss to San Antonio, and Brooklyn is 0-3 SU and ATS in the three games since losing Kevin Durant. The betting market has pushed this total down to 220.5 consensus, and once both Johnson and Paul are announced as active this number should flip to Phoenix.

Philadelphia 76ers (-2.5, 234) at Portland Trail Blazers

Portland has hit some hard times despite putting up some positive numbers. In the last 16 games the Trail Blazers are 5-11 SU and ATS, but they have outscored opponents by 0.4 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. During this slide there has been no extreme statistical outliers for Portland, as all the numbers are in line with what they have been all season long. Turnovers will be a key here, as the Trail Blazers rank 28th in offensive turnover rate (15.7%) and the 76ers are the fourth best team in the league at forcing turnovers. Philadelphia is 16-4 SU/12-8 ATS in their last 20 games, playing the penultimate game of a west coast trip.

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Look at cross sport props in the Super Bowl, they are often the best value on the expanded Super Bowl prop board. View more tips.

VSiN Final Countdown: Adam Burke advises "addition by subtraction" - when betting Super Bowl props, have more minus bets than plus bets, betting a little to win a lot is great (safety, OT, etc), but there's a reason those are long shots. View more tips.

PRO PICKS

Danny Burke: Isiah Pacheco Over 63.5 Rush+Rec Yards (-114). View more picks.

Pauly Howard: 1st TD Non-Passing (+145). View more picks.

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