Welcome to the daily NBA best bets page, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!
All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page.
Stay up to date on injury news with our injury report page as well.
*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers
Record: 46-51 | Units: -8.28 | ROI: -8.79%
There are no best bets as of this morning.
NBA Games & Odds
As usual, the injury report is key here. LeBron James is questionable once more, but comments made by him and the team make this designation seem more serious. Meanwhile, Tyrese Haliburton was upgraded to questionable, and should make his return to action tonight. In the 11 games Haliburton missed, Indiana went 1-10 SU/2-9 ATS with a -13.3 net rating in non-garbage time. He is their most important player, and will greatly improve this offense which managed just 109.7 points per 100 possessions without him. Regardless, where this number ends up is going to be decided by James’ status. If he does not play the Pacers should go off as a short home favorite.
Memphis fell to 2-6 SU and ATS in its last eight games after the loss to Portland on Wednesday night. Now, it finds itself in a tough spot on the road, where it has struggled (11-15 SU/9-15-2 ATS), and possibly short-handed. Desmond Bane has been dealing with knee soreness that has kept him out the two games prior to last night. It is possible Bane rests tonight against an Eastern Conference foe, and as we know, Steven Adams is already out. This number will likely start to creep toward Cleveland as the market charges its usual point for the back-to-back, but expect the real move to happen once the availability of the Grizzlies’ personnel becomes clearer.
The theory that New York would suffer on defense without Mitchell Robinson is getting more support by the day. In the seven games since Robinson’s injury the Knicks have a 125.0 defensive rating in non-garbage time and the team is 2-5 SU and ATS. That poor level of defensive play is likely why we’ve seen this bump in the total from the overnight opener, but can Miami take advantage of that? The Heat have averaged just 107.7 points per 100 possession in non-garbage time over the last six games, and have a -0.7 net rating in the process. Miami’s defense has been tremendous, but the market still has this oddly inflated rating on this team which shows in its 4-6-1 ATS record in the last 10 games.
The Bulls blew a 19-point lead against the Clippers on Tuesday, falling to 13-7-1 in their last 21 games. Chicago continues to defend at a high level, limiting its last 10 opponents to 109.5 points per 100 possessions and ranking ninth in non-garbage time defensive efficiency for the season. This would seem like a great matchup for the Bulls, seeing as the Hornets’ offense has shown no signs of improving, even during this run. The market has moved this game up to 238 consensus on the total, but we’re sitting at the opening line here with no signs of movement.
This is a terrible situation for New Orleans. Weather kept the Pelicans from getting into Dallas on time, and the team reportedly had to fly in this morning. That’s a flight and game on the same day for New Orleans, which is already 3-14 SU/3-13-1 ATS in its last 17 games. One could argue this is being factored into the line, as these two teams are much closer to equal from power rating standpoint. The Mavericks have not seen much better results either, coming into this contest 6-9 SU/4-11 ATS in its last 15 contests. For those who want to play against New Orleans because of the travel issues, look to play against it in the second half. That is generally where you see fatigue wear on a team.
It had seemed that the road woes had been all but fixed for Golden State after a win over Oklahoma City extended its win streak away from home, but it’s clear this team still has its issues. Now, the Warriors are coming off an overtime loss to the Timberwolves and it is likely that multiple starters sit this game out with Steph Curry playing 43 minutes and Draymond Green putting in 39 minutes. This is why this number is as high as -12 consensus as of this morning.
Los Angeles has won six straight games which Kawhi Leonard has played in, and over the course of his last 10 games the team is 8-2 SU/7-3 ATS. The Clippers’ net rating with Leonard and Paul George on the floor together continues to improve, and is now +11.0 with a 121.6 offensive rating. This is going to be a massive test of the legitimacy of the numbers and production this team has put up recently when fully healthy. Milwaukee is starting to find its footing as well, bringing a 7-1 SU/5-3 ATS run into this game with a full roster as well. This number would tell us the Bucks are the better team by about 1.5 points, which is hard to argue given the limited sample size of success for the Clippers.