NBA Best Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Sunday, January 15th

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 

January 15, 2023 08:53 AM
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Welcome to the daily NBA best bets page, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page. Stay up to date on injury news with our injury report page as well.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 38-44 | Units: -7.65 | ROI: -9.55%

Oklahoma City Thunder at Brooklyn Nets (-5, 230.5)

Oklahoma City has won four of five contests, and the team is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games. It is also on a 7-0 run to the Over in its last seven games, and as it stands they are just a half-game out of the final play-in seed. The Thunder have a lot to play for, as do the Brooklyn Nets. One would expect that a game like this has a high-scoring, up-and-down affair written all over it, but this might not be that kind of basketball game.

Brooklyn scuffled in its first game without Kevin Durant on the floor, averaging only 1.054 points per possession in the loss to Boston on Thursday. Kyrie Irving was limited to 9-of-23 shooting from the floor, and the team managed just 0.878 points per play in the halfcourt. There is not much shot creation outside of Irving with Durant sidelined, and now he will be harassed by Lu Dort all game long. Bettors could see another disjointed offensive effort from the Nets once more tonight, but they still have the ability to defend a limited Thunder team as well. Royce O’Neale and Ben Simmons are capable defenders who can match up with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nic Claxton has been an incredible rim protector this season. This leads me to believe this game is going Under the total.

Play: UNDER 230.5

Best Bet Recap

Thunder/Nets UNDER (230.5)

The Rest

New York Knicks (-7, 226.5) at Detroit Pistons

Detroit is 3-15 SU/7-11 ATS in their previous 18 games with the second worst net rating in non-garbage time (-7.7). Bojan Bogdanovic is questionable to play with illness, and Jalen Duren is out once more. During this putrid stretch of basketball the only constant has been the offensive rebounding ability of this team - They rank third, grabbing 30.5% of their missed shots - but that is not reliable without Duren on the floor. New York is 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS in their last seven, and the healthiest it has been in a while. This number is probably too high for the Knickerbockers, but do you really want to try to catch the falling knife that is the Detroit Pistons?

Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Clippers (-9.5, 222)

Paul George and Luke Kennard are still out with injury, and Marcus Morris and John Wall are considered doubtful to play. The injuries continue to be a constant irritant for Los Angeles which is 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS in their last eight games. However, that pales in comparison to the slide Houston is currently on. The Rockets come into this game on an 0-9 SU/1-8 ATS losing streak, over which they have been outscored by 16.9 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. It’s a sleepy spot for both teams, with this being a west coast game at noon on a Sunday, so attacking this in-game would be a smarter strategy than getting involved in the morning. Keep in mind, Kevin Porter Jr. is likely to miss this contest for Houston as well.

Golden State Warriors (-3.5, 237.5) at Chicago Bulls

Golden State bounced back nicely in San Antonio after losing to the Motor City Cruise in Steph Curry’s return from injury. Now, the Warriors are in Chicago where they can continue to work out those road woes on a Bulls team which desperately needs DeMar DeRozan to return from injury. Chicago has dropped the two games without DeRozan, averaging just 1.062 points per possession in the process. He is listed as questionable to play today, and if he cannot go then there is little reason to believe this team can figure out its offensive woes without him. The market is already moving in favor of Golden State, and if he is ruled out expect that this number climbs even higher.

*Dallas Mavericks at *Portland Trail Blazers (-6, 227)

Tread lightly until the injury reports for both teams are posted today. It’s the second leg of a back-to-back for both squads, but injury concerns could set the table for resting some big names. Damian Lillard was questionable to play last night with an ankle injury, and could be held out to limit the time on it. Luka Doncic has missed four games this season, and all of them were on the backend of back-to-backs. Christian Wood missed the game for Dallas with an ankle injury of his own, and will likely miss this one as well. Considering this line was 1.5 yesterday this current number would tell you the market is expecting Doncic to rest tonight.

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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PRO TIPS

VSiN Final Countdown: The Travis Kelce Receiving Yards number will likely increase soon. If you like the over, bet it now. View more tips.

Follow The Money: Sharps bet on more negative money and "No" on Super Bowl props than plus money and "Yes." There are more variables working in favor of the sharp's side. View more tips.

PRO PICKS

Josh Appelbaum: Kansas City at Philadelphia - UNDER (50). View more picks.
 
Steve Buchanan: Any player to have a 55+ yard reception (+250). View more picks.

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