NBA Best Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Monday, March 27th

March 27, 2023

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Welcome to the daily NBA best bets page, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page.

Stay up to date on injury news with our injury report page as well.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 60-69 | Units: -12.11 | ROI: -9.60%

None as of this morning.

NBA Games & Odds

*Dallas Mavericks (-2, 234) at Indiana Pacers

Dallas is now 3-8 SU/2-9 ATS in games which both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving play, but luckily they won’t have to worry about that tonight. Doncic was called for his 16th technical foul of the season in the loss to Charlotte on Sunday, so he must serve a one-game suspension tonight in Indiana. This is also a back-to-back situation for the Mavericks, which means Irving could rest tonight given the trouble he has been having with his foot injury.

On the Indiana side, Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner are both questionable to play, making this game an absolute nightmare to handicap early. If Haliburton and Turner do play, bettors should look to the Pacers’ side here. Indiana dropped 1.258 points per possession when these two teams met on Feb. 28 in a game the Pacers won on the road. The Mavericks have allowed 119.5 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time since that game and are not getting any better defensively tonight.

Milwaukee Bucks (-16 232) at Detroit Pistons

Detroit is 1-16 SU/6-11 ATS in its last 17 games, and it enters this contest with Milwaukee on an 0-5 ATS slide in which it has a -18.0 net rating. Of all the “tanking” teams the Pistons are the worst, with injury reports that stretch longer than CVS receipts and today is no different. Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks are being listed as out yet again, and both Cory Joseph and Rodney McGruder – who has started 10 of 11 games he’s appeared in – are questionable to play. Those who are actively fading the Pistons have been profitable, but the numbers are growing larger by the day and the value will soon be sucked out of that approach.

*Houston Rockets at New York Knicks (-12.5, 230.5)

Houston fell to 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS after its loss to Cleveland on Sunday. However, New York is hardly in better shape. The Knicks are 3-6 SU and ATS in their last nine games, and their defense has allowed 118.3 points per 100 possessions over that stretch. One might think the Rockets’ young backcourt could take advantage of such a weakness, but Houston’s offense has been quite ineffective. In three of their last four games the Rockets have averaged under 1.06 points per possession, and they have turned it over on 17.6% of their offensive possessions in those contests. The market has moved a point toward the Knicks due to this being a back-to-back for Houston, but remember that Jalen Brunson is questionable to play. If he cannot go this number is certain to drop, and while the Knicks are capable of winning and covering here this is quite the lookahead spot with the season finale against the Heat on deck.

Phoenix Suns (-5.5, 233.5) at Utah Jazz

Lauri Markkanen is questionable to play due to a hand injury suffered last week against Portland. Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton are still sidelined, so Markkanen’s importance to this Jazz offense is magnified. If he cannot play will move even further than the 6.5 consensus line that is currently on the market. That being said, the market has clearly been too high on Phoenix and this could be another example of that. The Suns are 2-6 SU/1-7 ATS in their last eight games with a -3.8 net rating. Their defense has allowed 119.3 points per 100 possessions during this slump, and if that poor defensive play continues they could be burned if Markkanen plays. Utah puts up 119.2 points every 100 possessions with Markkanen on the floor, and he comes in averaging 32.0 points and 8.3 rebounds on 52.1% shooting.