NBA Best Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Monday, January 9th

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 

January 9, 2023 09:24 AM

Welcome to the daily NBA best bets page, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page. Stay up to date on injury news with our injury report page as well.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 36-42 | Units: -7.47 | ROI: -9.81%

Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets (-8.5, 241.5)

LeBron James will be on the floor tonight, but the market is starting to fall in love with this Nuggets team. Denver is 12-3 SU/8-6-1 ATS over the last month, and its offense is the second best in the league over that stretch at 121.8 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. It is easy to see why bettors would run to support them, but Los Angeles is not going to roll over in this matchup. The Lakers are not only on a 5-0 SU and ATS run right now, but they are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven. Los Angeles can also exploit some of the weaknesses of this defense. The Nuggets allow opponents to shoot 70.9% within four feet of the basket, and their transition defense is last in the NBA at 2.7 points added per 100 possessions by opponents through transition offense off live rebounds. This is the third game in four nights for the Lakers, but they could give the Nuggets some trouble this evening.

Play: Lakers (+10)

Best Bet Recap

Lakers (+10)

The Rest

New Orleans Pelicans at Washington Wizards (-1.5, 228.5)

Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson remain sidelined, and without their presence New Orleans’ offense can suffer from inconsistent stretches of play. Look no further than Friday night, where their scoring evaporated in the second half and the team managed just 17 points in the fourth quarter in the loss to Brooklyn. Washington has quietly put together a solid 6-4 SU/7-3 ATS run during which it has allowed just 111.2 points per 100 possessions. It’s also one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the league (74.3%), and it can match up nicely with New Orleans which is seventh in offensive rebounding (29.7%) and first in putback points per 100 missed shot attempts (24.8). The market has not budged on the side, but the total is starting to creep down to 227.5 consensus. 

Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics (-8, 237.5)

Since beating down the Suns in Phoenix a month ago the Boston Celtics are 7-7 SU with a +0.3 net rating in non-garbage time, but the market continues to price the team like it’s the best team in the league and the result is a 4-9-1 ATS record over that same stretch. Yet, here we are today with the market betting them up to 8.5 against a team which has matched up well with them and covered each meeting this season thus far. Chicago is a perfect 3-0 ATS against Boston this season, and that was during the absolutely scorching start to the Celtics’ season. In those three games Boston closed laying an average of 5.7 points per game, but here they are laying nearly three more points. Not every situation is created equally so perhaps the market believes the Celtics are in a good situation, but the Bulls are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 contests and clearly undervalued by the market.

Milwaukee Bucks (-2.5, 222) at New York Knicks

Every day that Milwaukee plays it seems that I write the same thing about it. The Bucks are 6-8 SU and ATS in their last 14 games with a -5.7 net rating in non-garbage time. Their offense has been abysmal during this stretch, averaging just 108.0 points per 100 possessions which is the second worst offensive rating in the league in that span. Bettors are not getting much value in betting on Milwaukee either, so it is more beneficial to avoid betting them or look to the other side and it seems like the market is doing the latter today. New York has won four straight and is 3-1 ATS in those four games, and the team has been playing much better basketball since Tom Thibodeau switched his rotation up to a nine-man group. It is worth noting that Milwaukee closed as a 6-point favorite in both meetings this season, so New York closing as the favorite here would be quite the adjustment from previous contests. 

San Antonio Spurs at *Memphis Grizzlies (-10.5, 237.5)

Memphis improved to 16-3 SU at home after a win over Utah last night, but fell to 14-5 ATS when it failed to cover. Regardless, the Grizzlies are a formidable foe when playing on their own court and should Steven Adams return tonight the challenge will be that much tougher for the Spurs. San Antonio might also be without its top two scorers tonight as well, with Devin Vassell already out with injury and Keldon Johnson listed as questionable. Once more the market seems to have bottomed out on the Spurs’ rating as the team has covered five of six, but if Johnson cannot play tonight it is hard to make the case for the underdog here.

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