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*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers
Best Bets
Record: 41-45 | Units: -7.92 | ROI: -9.19%
Milwaukee Bucks (-11.5, 233.5) at Detroit Pistons
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton are listed as probable for this game tonight, but as someone who was burned with a probable Giannis two weeks ago I would stress caution. If both play then it is obviously great for Milwaukee, but is the market overreacting to the news? There is certainly a chance both get some sort of minutes restriction, and even if they do not then the assumption that both will be at their usual level of production is flawed. The market has moved slightly toward Detroit here, but only by a half-point. The total was bet up from the overnight with the news of Middleton and Antetokounmpo playing, but this is high by numbers. Killian Hayes is questionable and Isaiah Stewart is out. Milwaukee should be better defensively with their stars back, and should limit Detroit’s offensive production.
Bet: UNDER 236.5
Best Bet Recap
Bucks/Pistons UNDER (236.5)
NBA Games & Odds
Boston Celtics (-8, 232) at Orlando Magic
The injury report is loaded for Boston, so bettors might want to be wary of running to back the favorite here. Malcolm Brogdon and Marcus Smart are already considered out and center Robert Williams is questionable to play. Most would think that as long as Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are healthy this team is a viable bet, but Orlando has matched up well with Boston this season and is 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS against it this season.
Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls (-1.5, 237.5)
Chicago is 11-4-1 ATS over its last 16 games, and much of that success is due to a much improved offense which has managed to put up 117.9 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. Sixteen games is a small sample size, so there is certainly a chance this a stretch of hot shooting for the Bulls and Cleaning The Glass’ location effective field goal percentage metric would give some support to that theory. Over the course of these 16 games the Bulls’ effective field goal percentage of 57.0% is fifth best in the NBA, but when the quality and location of shot is considered their location effective field goal percentage is 54.5%. Either way, it’s an interesting match against Atlanta which is finally healthy, and 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in its last six games.
Minnesota Timberwolves (-6, 236) at Houston Rockets
Houston is now on an 0-13 SU/1-11-1 ATS slide and 1-18 SU/4-14-1 ATS over the course of its last 19 games. There are no redeeming qualities for the Rockets at this point, and the team is showing nothing worth betting on. They were in Minnesota on Saturday and pushed the number, and the adjustment back home is only by three points. If we were using three points for homecourt, as the market has been, then this number should be Minnesota -3 not the open of -6 and the market is adjusting in that direction. Having said that, if you want to sweat out the Rockets tonight, be my guest.
*Memphis Grizzlies (-2.5, 244.5) at Sacramento Kings
Memphis fell to 11-12 SU/8-13-2 ATS on the road when it lost to Phoenix last night. The Grizzlies are outscoring road opponents by 0.4 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, with the biggest problem being its offense. Memphis’ offensive rating of 113.0 is much lower than its season long rating (116.3) and a far cry from its rating at home (119.9). It’s time the market adjusts its perception of this, and we’re seeing a bit of this with this line heading toward Sacramento this morning. The Kings had their six-game winning streak snapped at home by the short-handed 76ers on Saturday night, finally paying for a lackluster defensive effort which has been the norm for Sacramento (120.3 defensive rating last 15 games).