Welcome to the daily NBA best bets page, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!
All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page.
Stay up to date on injury news with our injury report page as well.
*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers
Record: 51-55 | Units: -6.29 | ROI: -6.10%
There are no preflop best bets for Monday. By my numbers there is value in both New York and New Orleans, but not enough to use for best bets this morning.
NBA Games & Odds
Detroit is likely taking the floor with a motley crew tonight, as their injury report is loaded. Bojan Bogdanovic and Isaiah Stewart are questionable to play with injuries, and both Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren are already listed as out. That is potentially three of the Pistons’ starting five on Saturday not playing in this game tonight. Those absences are likely why we’ve seen this total start to dip to 235.5 consensus as of this morning. Detroit managed just 0.947 points per possession in the loss to Toronto on Saturday, and that was a team that was not missing three starters due to injury. For what it's worth, Charlotte is 0-2 SU and ATS against Detroit, with the most recent meeting back on Feb. 3 which Detroit won 118-112 at home. The Pistons were catching a point then, so the swing back to Charlotte, if you believe that number to be accurate, would be about where the market is this morning.
The market’s trust in Miami was once again misplaced over the weekend. On Saturday the Heat opened as 4.5-point favorites over the Hornets in Charlotte, but closed -6 before losing the game outright. The loss extended Miami’ losing streak to four straight, and the team is now 1-8 ATS in its last nine games and a league worst 21-38-2 ATS (35.6%) on the season. The betting market continues to overvalue this Heat team, and we are seeing hints of that trust once more tonight with 5.5 starting to appear on the board. Perhaps the market is coming in against Philadelphia, which is in an odd scheduling spot after a tough loss to Boston on Saturday. However, that is not something I would personally bank on. The 76ers have limited opponents to 112.9 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time this season, and the Heat may not have either Tyler Herro or Kyle Lowry tonight, as both are questionable with injury.
The market is buying New York and it’s easy to see why. The Knickerbockers are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games, and they have outscored their opponents by 10.3 points per 100 possessions. Mitchell Robinson’s return has brought stability to New York’s defense as well, and in his two games back they have limited their opponents to 1.07 points per possession. Robinson’s presence is important not only because of the statistical return, but also because it does not seem the market has adequately adjusted for him. These two teams met in Boston on Jan. 26 and the Celtics closed as 8.5-point favorites. That translates to a 5.5-point difference on a neutral and a 2.5-point spread in New York. Robinson did not play in that game, but he is on the floor tonight and there is clearly no real adjustment on the spread. The lack of adjustment is also puzzling considering Jaylen Brown is listed as out due to personal reasons.
New Orleans’ offensive inconsistencies continued in New York on Saturday when it was limited to 1.029 points per possession in a loss. Meanwhile, Orlando has evolved into an effective defensive team, limiting its last 24 opponents to just 114.2 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. However, it does seem oddsmakers have reached a low point on the Pelicans’ rating, and we are seeing the market adjust that rating back. This line of 3.5 would indicate just a half-point difference between New Orleans and Orlando on a neutral, but there is an argument to be made that that gap is wider, even with the recent struggles of the Pelicans. The market has line up to -4 which is a move I agree with, as my numbers have this line just under -5 in favor of the home team.